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Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District election, 2020

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Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 1, 2020
Primary: August 11, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Gwen Moore (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Wisconsin
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Wisconsin elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Wisconsin, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Gwen Moore won election in the general election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
June 1, 2020
August 11, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Gwen Moore, who was first elected in 2004. The race was one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018.


Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District includes portions of Milwaukee and Waukesha counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 76.2 74.6
Republican candidate Republican Party 22.6 22.7
Difference 53.6 51.9

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Wisconsin modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee and mail-in ballot applications were sent to most registered voters in the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4

Incumbent Gwen Moore defeated Tim Rogers and Robert Raymond in the general election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Gwen Moore
Gwen Moore (D)
 
74.6
 
232,668
Image of Tim Rogers
Tim Rogers (R)
 
22.7
 
70,769
Image of Robert Raymond
Robert Raymond (Independent)
 
2.5
 
7,911
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
349

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 311,697
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4

Incumbent Gwen Moore advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4 on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Gwen Moore
Gwen Moore
 
99.4
 
68,898
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.6
 
392

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 69,290
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4

Tim Rogers defeated Cindy Werner in the Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4 on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tim Rogers
Tim Rogers
 
50.2
 
6,685
Image of Cindy Werner
Cindy Werner
 
49.5
 
6,598
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.3
 
41

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 13,324
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+25, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 25 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District the 43rd most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[3]


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[4]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[5][6][7]

Race ratings: Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 4th Congressional District candidates in Wisconsin in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Wisconsin, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Wisconsin 4th Congressional District Recognized party 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 6/1/2020 Source
Wisconsin 4th Congressional District Unaffiliated 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 6/1/2020 Source

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twenty-three of 72 Wisconsin counties—32 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Adams County, Wisconsin 21.92% 8.73% 18.35%
Buffalo County, Wisconsin 21.82% 2.93% 14.66%
Columbia County, Wisconsin 2.14% 13.58% 15.26%
Crawford County, Wisconsin 5.40% 19.98% 27.03%
Door County, Wisconsin 3.22% 6.99% 17.33%
Dunn County, Wisconsin 11.09% 4.97% 14.95%
Forest County, Wisconsin 26.58% 5.44% 15.16%
Grant County, Wisconsin 9.43% 13.77% 23.88%
Jackson County, Wisconsin 11.74% 15.01% 21.84%
Juneau County, Wisconsin 26.05% 7.03% 9.00%
Kenosha County, Wisconsin 0.31% 12.23% 18.06%
Lafayette County, Wisconsin 8.99% 15.37% 22.32%
Lincoln County, Wisconsin 20.60% 0.71% 12.48%
Marquette County, Wisconsin 24.09% 0.27% 5.28%
Pepin County, Wisconsin 23.08% 2.22% 12.89%
Price County, Wisconsin 25.00% 0.04% 13.40%
Racine County, Wisconsin 4.28% 3.54% 7.41%
Richland County, Wisconsin 5.50% 16.13% 20.63%
Sauk County, Wisconsin 0.35% 18.47% 23.04%
Sawyer County, Wisconsin 18.41% 0.49% 6.23%
Trempealeau County, Wisconsin 12.64% 14.08% 26.39%
Vernon County, Wisconsin 4.43% 14.73% 22.00%
Winnebago County, Wisconsin 7.34% 3.73% 11.66%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Wisconsin with 47.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 46.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Wisconsin cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Wisconsin supported Republicans slightly more than Democratic candidates, 50.0 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election from 2000 to 2012 before voting for Trump in 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in Wisconsin. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 43 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 34.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 34.6 points. Clinton won three districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 56 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 12.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 63 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 19.4 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District election history

2018

See also: Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4

Incumbent Gwen Moore defeated Tim Rogers and Robert Raymond in the general election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Gwen Moore
Gwen Moore (D)
 
75.7
 
206,487
Image of Tim Rogers
Tim Rogers (R)
 
21.7
 
59,091
Image of Robert Raymond
Robert Raymond (Independent)
 
2.6
 
7,170

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 272,748
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4

Incumbent Gwen Moore defeated Gary George in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Gwen Moore
Gwen Moore
 
89.0
 
76,991
Image of Gary George
Gary George
 
11.0
 
9,468

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 86,459
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4

Tim Rogers defeated Cindy Werner in the Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 4 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tim Rogers
Tim Rogers
 
55.6
 
8,912
Image of Cindy Werner
Cindy Werner
 
44.4
 
7,122

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 16,034
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Gwen Moore (D) defeated Andy Craig (L) and Robert Raymond (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Moore defeated Gary George in the Democratic primary on August 9, 2016.[10][11]

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngGwen Moore Incumbent 77% 220,181
     Independent Robert Raymond 11.7% 33,494
     Libertarian Andy Craig 11.3% 32,183
Total Votes 285,858
Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission


U.S. House, Wisconsin District 4 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngGwen Moore Incumbent 84.7% 55,256
Gary George 15.3% 10,013
Total Votes 65,269
Source: Wisconsin Elections and Ethics Commission

2014

See also: Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Wisconsin held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Gwen Moore (D) defeated Dan Sebring (R) and Robert Raymond (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngGwen Moore Incumbent 70.2% 179,045
     Republican Dan Sebring 26.9% 68,490
     Independent Robert Raymond 2.7% 7,002
     N/A Scattering 0.1% 355
Total Votes 254,892
Source: Wisconsin Government Accountability Board

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Wisconsin Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  5. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  6. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  7. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  10. ↑ Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "Candidate Tracking by Office," accessed June 2, 2016
  11. ↑ Politico, "Wisconsin House Primaries Results," August 9, 2016


Wisconsin's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Ronald Johnson (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Tony Wied (R)
Republican Party (7)
Democratic Party (3)


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