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Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 5

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of F. James Sensenbrenner
F. James Sensenbrenner (R)
 
62.0
 
225,619
Image of Tom Palzewicz
Tom Palzewicz (D) Candidate Connection
 
38.0
 
138,385
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
1

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 364,005
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


2020 →
← 2016
Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 1, 2018
Primary: August 14, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Jim Sensenbrenner (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Wisconsin
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Wisconsin elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 5th Congressional District of Wisconsin, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Jim Sensenbrenner (R), who was first elected in 2002.

Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District includes Jefferson and Washington counties and parts of Dodge, Milwaukee, Walworth, and Waukesha counties.[1]




Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 5

Incumbent F. James Sensenbrenner defeated Tom Palzewicz in the general election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 5 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of F. James Sensenbrenner
F. James Sensenbrenner (R)
 
62.0
 
225,619
Image of Tom Palzewicz
Tom Palzewicz (D) Candidate Connection
 
38.0
 
138,385
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
1

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 364,005
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 5

Tom Palzewicz advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 5 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tom Palzewicz
Tom Palzewicz Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
43,192

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 43,192
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 5

Incumbent F. James Sensenbrenner defeated Jennifer Vipond in the Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 5 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of F. James Sensenbrenner
F. James Sensenbrenner
 
81.2
 
73,397
Image of Jennifer Vipond
Jennifer Vipond
 
18.8
 
17,011

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 90,408
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District the 105th most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.11. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.11 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
F. James Sensenbrenner Republican Party $355,124 $482,431 $355,097 As of December 31, 2018
Tom Palzewicz Democratic Party $263,201 $260,310 $2,891 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District history

2016

See also: Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Jim Sensenbrenner (R) defeated Khary Penebaker (D) and John Arndt (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[4][5]

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 5 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJim Sensenbrenner Incumbent 66.8% 260,706
     Democratic Khary Penebaker 29.3% 114,477
     Libertarian John Arndt 3.9% 15,324
Total Votes 390,507
Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

2014

See also: Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 5th congressional district of Wisconsin held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Jim Sensenbrenner (R) defeated Chris Rockwood (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 5 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJim Sensenbrenner Incumbent 69.5% 231,160
     Democratic Chris Rockwood 30.4% 101,190
     N/A Scattering 0.1% 476
Total Votes 332,826
Source: Wisconsin Government Accountability Board

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twenty-three of 72 Wisconsin counties—32 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Adams County, Wisconsin 21.92% 8.73% 18.35%
Buffalo County, Wisconsin 21.82% 2.93% 14.66%
Columbia County, Wisconsin 2.14% 13.58% 15.26%
Crawford County, Wisconsin 5.40% 19.98% 27.03%
Door County, Wisconsin 3.22% 6.99% 17.33%
Dunn County, Wisconsin 11.09% 4.97% 14.95%
Forest County, Wisconsin 26.58% 5.44% 15.16%
Grant County, Wisconsin 9.43% 13.77% 23.88%
Jackson County, Wisconsin 11.74% 15.01% 21.84%
Juneau County, Wisconsin 26.05% 7.03% 9.00%
Kenosha County, Wisconsin 0.31% 12.23% 18.06%
Lafayette County, Wisconsin 8.99% 15.37% 22.32%
Lincoln County, Wisconsin 20.60% 0.71% 12.48%
Marquette County, Wisconsin 24.09% 0.27% 5.28%
Pepin County, Wisconsin 23.08% 2.22% 12.89%
Price County, Wisconsin 25.00% 0.04% 13.40%
Racine County, Wisconsin 4.28% 3.54% 7.41%
Richland County, Wisconsin 5.50% 16.13% 20.63%
Sauk County, Wisconsin 0.35% 18.47% 23.04%
Sawyer County, Wisconsin 18.41% 0.49% 6.23%
Trempealeau County, Wisconsin 12.64% 14.08% 26.39%
Vernon County, Wisconsin 4.43% 14.73% 22.00%
Winnebago County, Wisconsin 7.34% 3.73% 11.66%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Wisconsin with 47.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 46.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Wisconsin cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Wisconsin supported Republicans slightly more than Democratic candidates, 50.0 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election from 2000 to 2012 before voting for Trump in 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in Wisconsin. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 43 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 34.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 34.6 points. Clinton won three districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 56 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 12.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 63 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 19.4 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Wisconsin heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • Republicans held six of 11 state executive positions, while one position was held by a Democrat and four were held by nonpartisan officials.
  • The governor of Wisconsin was Republican Scott Walker.

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Wisconsin elections, 2018

Wisconsin held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Wisconsin
 WisconsinU.S.
Total population:5,767,891316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):54,1583,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:86.5%73.6%
Black/African American:6.3%12.6%
Asian:2.5%5.1%
Native American:0.9%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:6.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,357$53,889
Persons below poverty level:15%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Wisconsin.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Wisconsin had a population of approximately 5,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Milwaukee (pop. est. 600,000), Madison (pop. est. 250,000), and Green Bay (pop. est. 110,000).[8][9]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Wisconsin every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Wisconsin 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 47.8% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 46.3% 1.5%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.8% Republican Party Mitt Romney 45.9% 6.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 56.2% Republican Party John McCain 42.3% 13.9%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 49.7% Republican Party George W. Bush 49.3% 0.4%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 47.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 47.6% 0.2%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Wisconsin 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Ron Johnson 50.2% Democratic Party Russ Feingold 46.8% 3.4%
2012 Democratic Party Tammy Baldwin 51.4% Republican Party Tommy Thompson 45.9% 5.5%
2010 Republican Party Ron Johnson 51.9% Democratic Party Russ Feingold 47.0% 4.9%
2006 Democratic Party Herb Kohl 67.3% Republican Party Robert Lorge 29.5% 37.8%
2004 Democratic Party Russ Feingold 55.3% Republican Party Tim Michels 44.1% 11.2%
2000 Democratic Party Herb Kohl 61.5% Republican Party John Gillespie 37.0% 24.5%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Wisconsin.

Election results (Governor), Wisconsin 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Scott Walker 52.3% Democratic Party Mary Burke 46.6% 5.7%
2010 Republican Party Scott Walker 52.3% Democratic Party Tom Barrett 46.5% 5.8%
2006 Democratic Party Jim Doyle 52.7% Republican Party Mark Green 45.3% 7.4%
2002 Democratic Party Jim Doyle 45.1% Republican Party Scott McCallum 41.4% 3.7%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Wisconsin in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Wisconsin 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2014 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2012 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2010 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2004 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% -
2002 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% -
2000 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Wisconsin Party Control: 1992-2025
Two years of Democratic trifectas  •  Ten years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate D R R R D D R D D D D R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Wisconsin Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "Candidate Tracking by Office," accessed June 2, 2016
  5. ↑ Politico, "Wisconsin House Primaries Results," August 9, 2016
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  8. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Wisconsin," accessed January 15, 2018
  9. ↑ Wisconsin Demographics, "Wisconsin Cities by Population," accessed January 15, 2018
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Wisconsin's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Ronald Johnson (R)
Representatives
District 1
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District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Tony Wied (R)
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