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You're Hired: Tracking the Trump Administration Transition - April 21, 2017
Trump Administration (first term)  Vice President Mike Pence Cabinet • White House staff • Transition team • Trump's second term |
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| Polling indexes: Opinion polling during the Trump administration |
This is the April 21, 2017, edition of an email sent from November 2016 to September 2017 that covered Donald Trump's presidential transition, cabinet appointees, and the different policy positions of those individuals who may have had an effect on the new administration. Previous editions of "You're Hired" can be found here.
As President Trump’s 100th day nears, You’re Hired is spending this week looking forward. On Wednesday, we looked into upcoming negotiations on the budget and the special elections that could shape Congress in 2017. Today, we’ll look to three notable post-Day 100 legislative priorities for the administration: healthcare, taxes, and infrastructure.
Next week, we will look back to the president’s 100 day plan to see how proposals have matched up with reality in these first months.
Note: We won’t abandon you after the first 100 days are up, but our publishing schedule will change. Our emails will arrive in your inbox just once a week, each Wednesday, to bring you an in-depth look at a current topic involving the Trump administration. We will also send special editions to add context to any unexpected events. If you have a topic you would like our team to shed some light on, please feel free to email us at editor@ballotpedia.org or tweet us @Ballotpedia
Healthcare
Get more details on federal healthcare policy here.
Where does current legislation stand?
The American Health Care Act, a bill proposed in the House last month before being pulled from consideration, is still being tweaked, according to recent reports. The previous version of the bill, which we covered in our March 8 edition, lost traction with both conservative and moderate members of the House.
Conservatives wanted healthcare legislation to fully repeal the Affordable Care Act and immediately end Medicaid expansion. The moderate wing of the party, especially those from states that had expanded Medicaid, argued for greater tax credits and also disagreed with speeding up cuts to Medicaid funding.
What could happen going forward?
New proposals for the bill have surfaced this week with the MacArthur Amendment, offered by Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-N.J.) and negotiated between moderate and conservative House members. A whitepaper version of the amendment published by Politico details a “limited waiver option” for states. Under this option, states could seek waivers from some federal standards (like the Essential Health Benefits and some community rating rules) if the waiver is in the interest of reducing premium costs, increasing the number of insured people, or advancing another public benefit.
Something to consider
According to reports from Politico, Trump is eager to get a healthcare bill passed before his first 100 days are up. In a news conference yesterday, he said he expected healthcare legislation to pass “next week or shortly thereafter.” According to news reports, the administration has been pressuring House Republicans to hold a vote on new proposals for an Obamacare replacement next week, when they return from Easter recess.
Taxes
What has Trump proposed?
The second tax proposal of Trump’s presidential campaign, and the one he pledged to voters as part of his 100 Day Plan, involved reducing the number of tax brackets from seven to three and reducing the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin initially set a deadline of August for getting a tax plan through Congress and onto Trump’s desk.
What legislation could be proposed going forward?
According to The Associated Press, Trump has asked his economic advisors, including Mnuchin, to start over on a tax plan. The report indicated that the administration is considering a number of options with the ultimate goal of reducing taxes in rural and industrial portions of the U.S. specifically.
Here are some of the tax items that are under consideration, according to news reports:
- Border adjustment tax: Part of a proposal from Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Kevin Brady (R-Texas), this would tax imports but not exports. Supporters of this idea say it would improve manufacturing in the United States and increase the number of American workers. Those who oppose such a tax argue that it would put restrictions on industries that rely on imports, like large retail.
- Reducing payroll tax: Trump has also discussed reducing or eliminating the payroll tax in an effort to reduce taxes on middle-class families. This would, however, reduce or eliminate the way that the federal government funds Social Security.
- Full immediate expensing: This would allow businesses to write off new investments in the year that those investments are made. According to Bloomberg BNA, Trump endorsed this idea during the transition.
Something to consider
One complication is that Trump has said in order for tax cuts to happen, healthcare legislation to replace the Affordable Care Act must come first. On April 10, he said that replacing the healthcare system would allow tax system changes to be affordable. Trump said, “So we’re saving tremendous amounts of money on healthcare when we get this done, number one. And most importantly, actually we’re going to have great healthcare. And all of that saving goes into the tax. If you don’t do that, you can’t put any of the savings into the tax cuts.”
In an interview with the Financial Times this week, Mnuchin said that the initial August deadline for tax changes was unlikely to be met, saying that “realistically it started as an aggressive timeline, and it’s fair to say that it’s probably delayed a bit because of the healthcare.”
Infrastructure
One of Trump’s campaign pledges was a $1 trillion infrastructure package that aimed to rebuild roads and airports. No bill has yet been proposed, but in a speech in Wisconsin this week, Trump said, “[I]nfrastructure is coming and it’s coming fast.” Speaking yesterday with the Institute of International Finance, Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s budget director, said that infrastructure plans were still in early discussions and were likely to be solidified in the fall, according to Bloomberg.
How might an increase in infrastructure spending happen?
Most reports indicate that infrastructure spending would need to be a partnership between public and private funds, somewhere in the ratio of one-to-five, according to Mulvaney. The basic idea is that the government would give tax credits to private investment firms that partner with the federal government in infrastructure projects. White House economic advisor Gary Cohn has also indicated that tax revenue generated by corporate money coming back to the U.S. from overseas could fund infrastructure plans.
Some things to consider
Although Mulvaney and Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao have indicated that an infrastructure plan is likely to come nearer the end of 2017, Trump himself has said he may look to include an infrastructure package with another high-profile piece of legislation. Speaking with The New York Times on April 5, Trump said, “I’m thinking about accelerating it [infrastructure]. I’m thinking about putting it with another bill. Could be health care, could be something else. Could be tax reform.”
Trump’s recent “Buy American and Hire American” order could also complicate planned spending on infrastructure, according to Fortune. Construction industry representatives have expressed concern over the policy raising prices on materials and labor. Stephen Sandherr, CEO of the Association of General Contractors, said in a press release, “If the president and Congress are serious about rebuilding the nation's aging infrastructure, it is vital to avoid artificially pushing up the cost of materials that go into these projects.”
See also
- You're Hired: Tracking the Trump Administration Transition
- Donald Trump presidential transition team
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