America's unelected governor?

November 1, 2010

Vermont could be gearing up to send the final decision on its governor to the state legislature.

By Eileen McGuire-Mahony

Vermonters certainly know how to draw out the drama. As fall rolled into New England, the state's Democrats spent more than two weeks to find out who they'd be backing. Of the five contenders, two faded away quickly on the August 24th Primary Night. By lunchtime on Wednesday, former Secretary of State Deborah L. Markowitz was out as well, leaving a pair of state Senators, Douglas Racine and Peter Shumlin, in a stare-down.

On August 28th, a vote talley gave Shumlin the edge by 197 votes; he, along with core supporters, began to assume the mantle of the Democratic nominee. Racine, however, exercised his write to request a recount - which didn't begin until September 8th. Racine ultimately conceded on the 10th.

Soon after, Martha Abbott, who chairs the Vermont State Progressive Party, ended her third party candidacy with the announcement that she'd only entered the race to force Democrats to address key aspects of the Progressive platform. She released her voters and urged Progressives to support Shumlin, making her perhaps the long shot candidate to be so candid about her chances.

Meanwhile, the state's current Lt. Governor, Republican Brian Dubie, had been quietly campaigning to take over from retiring incumbent Jim Douglas. Douglas has three terms under his belt Vermont's idiosyncratic voters, along with the Dems' late start, gave Dubue reason to hope. Instead, Dubie, slightly behind but certainly competitive, began a precipitous drop once Shumlin became the clear Democratic nominee, bottoming out at the end of September.

Since then, the Republican has rebounded moderately and, while it is unlikely he will pull off a victory, his surge could place the race's ultimate disposition into the legislature's hands. Vermont's Constitution requires gubernatorial candidates to take a "50% + 1" plurality. If no one meets this mark, the combined houses of the legislature cast a ballot to choose among the top three vote getters.

Vermont's General Assembly is solid blue, with Democrats controlling the House by a nearly 2-to-1 margin and commanding 77% of the Senate seats. To boot, Shumlin is the sitting Majority Leader in the upper chamber. However, as Lt.Governor, Brian Dubie is automatically also the Senate President. Either way, the 180 members of Vermont's Assembly would be choosing a familiar face.

In the past, when such electoral questions are tossed their way, the state's legislature has voted for the candidate who won the popular vote, seen as an important signal of respect to the voters. In 2010, that man is highly likely to be Shumlin. Such an outcome would be a welcome win for Democrats, who are preparing to take a beating in state houses and governors' mansions alike on Tuesday.

Whatever the final outcome, as one of two states to elect governors every two years, Vermont will be grading the winner very soon.