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Welcome to the Thursday, November 1 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- New York state spotlight
- Pennsylvania state spotlight
- 15 ballot measures to watch on Tuesday
New York: I Love New York
New York is holding elections for one U.S. Senate seat, 27 U.S. House seats, governor and three other state executive offices, all 63 state Senate seats, and all 150 state Assembly seats. A special election is being held to fill the remaining term for one vacant U.S. House seat. Ballotpedia is also covering municipal elections in Erie County, Buffalo, and New York.
What is the partisan balance in the state?
Congress: Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats and 17 U.S. House seats. Republicans hold nine U.S. House seats. One seat previously held by a Democrat is vacant.
Governor: Democrat.
Lt. Governor: Democrat.
Attorney General: Democrat.
State Senate: 32-31 Democratic majority. However, Republicans control the chamber through a power-sharing agreement with one Democratic member, Simcha Felder.
State Assembly: 103-42 Democratic majority, one Independence Party member who caucuses with Democrats, and four vacancies.
Races to watch
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New York’s 11th Congressional District: Incumbent Dan Donovan (R), Max Rose (D), Henry Bardel (G), and Charles Hargrove (L) are running for the 11th District, which encompasses Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn in New York City. Donovan is the only Republican to represent New York City in Congress. Election forecasters give Donovan a slight edge over Rose.
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New York’s 19th Congressional District: Incumbent John Faso (R), Antonio Delgado (D), Steven Greenfield (G), and Diane Neal (I) are running for the 19th District, which is located in upstate New York, south of Albany. Independent polls in September and October showed Faso and Delgado about even. Election forecasters call the race a toss-up.
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New York’s 22nd Congressional District: Incumbent Claudia Tenney (R) and Anthony Brindisi (D) are running for the 22nd District, which is in upstate New York, east of Syracuse. Tenney was first elected in 2016, defeating Kim Meyers (D) by 5.4 percentage points for an open seat. Brindisi is a state assemblyman who was first elected in 2011. Election forecasters call the race a toss-up.
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New York’s 27th Congressional District: Incumbent Chris Collins (R), Nate McMurray (D), and Larry Piegza (Reform Party) are running for the 27th District, which is in upstate New York between Buffalo and Rochester. Collins was indicted for insider trading in August 2018. He initially suspended his campaign but later said he would stay on the ballot. He won the district with nearly 70 percent of the vote in 2014 and 2016, but independent polls show a close race between him and McMurray.
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New York gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election: Incumbent Andrew Cuomo (D), Marc Molinaro (R), and three others are running for New York’s governorship. Cuomo is seeking his third term in office. Independent polls show him leading Molinaro, the executive of Dutchess County, by more than 20 percentage points.
What you need to know if you’re a New York voter
Early voting dates: New York does not permit early voting.
Polls open/close: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Voter ID: Not required.
Bookmark your sample ballot.
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On November 6, voters in 37 states will weigh in on 155 statewide ballot measures. Rather than catch up on each of these measures individually, let our experts break down the results for you. In this free, 30-minute webinar ballot measure experts Josh Altic and Ryan Byrne will review the groups involved, campaign spending, trends, and more.
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Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania. Pursue Your Happiness.
Pennsylvania is holding elections for one U.S. Senate seat, 18 U.S. House seats, governor, lieutenant governor, 25 out of 50 state Senate seats, and all 203 state House seats. Special elections are being held to fill the remaining terms for two U.S. House seats.
What is the partisan balance in the state?
Congress: Republicans hold one U.S. Senate seat and 10 U.S. House seats. Democrats hold one U.S. Senate seat and six U.S. House seats. Two U.S. House seats previously held by Republicans are vacant.
Governor: Democrat.
Lt. Governor: Democrat.
Attorney General: Democrat.
State Senate: 33-16 Republican majority with one vacancy.
State House: 120-79 Republican majority with four vacancies.
Races to watch
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Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District: U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R), who represents the old 8th Congressional District, faces Wallace Global Fund director Scott Wallace (D) in the general election. The new 1st District backed Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points in 2016, while Donald Trump won the old 8th District by 0.2 percentage points.
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Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District: Clinton won the newly-drawn 5th District by 28 percentage points in 2016. She won the old 7th District, which the 5th District most closely resembles, by 2.3 percentage points. Truthout said this was "the most dramatic shift of all 18 congressional districts caused by Pennsylvania's redistricting.” Attorney Mary Gay Scanlon (D) and former prosecutor Pearl Kim (R) are running.
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Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District: This district contains a majority of the old 6th District represented by Ryan Costello (R), who did not file for re-election, and portions of the old 7th and 16th Districts. The new 6th Direct backed Hillary Clinton by 9.3 percentage points in 2016. Clinton won the old 6th District by 0.6 percentage points. Non-profit director Chrissy Houlahan (D) and attorney Greg McCauley (R) are running.
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Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District: Attorney Susan Wild (D), Olympic cyclist Marty Nothstein (R), and television reporter Tim Silfies (L) are running for this seat. It most closely resembles the old 15th District, which backed Trump by 7.6 percentage points. The new district backed Clinton by 1.1 percentage points.
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Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District: Businesswoman Bibiana Boerio (D) and state Sen. Guy Reschenthaler (R) are running in the general election. The new 14th District is made up of a plurality of the old 18th District, which was won in a March 2018 special election by Democrat Conor Lamb (D).
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Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District: Lamb and Keith Rothfus (R) are running in the general election. This race is the only U.S. House match-up of two incumbent U.S. representatives in 2018.
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Pennsylvania Governor: Sitting Gov. Tom Wolf (D) faces former state Sen. Scott Wagner (R) in the general election. Although Wolf was first elected by a margin of 10 percentage points in 2014, Trump carried the state in the 2016 presidential election. A Republican victory could shift Pennsylvania from a divided government to a Republican trifecta with Republicans controlling both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
What you need to know if you’re a Pennsylvania voter
Early voting dates: Pennsylvania does not permit early voting.
Polls open/close: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voter ID: Not required.
Note: There are new congressional maps in place for the 2018 election. Find out more about redistricting in Pennsylvania here.
Bookmark your sample ballot.
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15 ballot measures from across the country that you should know about
Yesterday we brought you the Top 15 overall races we are watching next Tuesday. Now, drum roll please, here are the Top 15 ballot measures to watch on Election Night.
Here are five from our list:
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California Proposition 8: Limits on Dialysis Clinics' Revenue and Required Refunds - The most expensive ballot measure battle in 2018 represents a new front in the conflict between the SEIU-UHW West, a labor organization, and the state's two largest dialysis businesses.
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Washington 1631: Carbon Emissions Fee - An initiative to establish a carbon emissions fee that would be the first of its kind in the United States. Washington voters defeated a carbon tax initiative in 2016. Will the differences in the provisions of the measures and in the campaigns mean a different outcome in November?
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The recreational marijuana legalization movement tries to break into the Midwest: Voters will decide Michigan Proposal 1 and North Dakota Measure 3. North Dakota could become only the second state that voted Republican in the last three presidential elections to legalize marijuana; Alaska is the other. Michigan Proposal 1 is ahead in the polls. North Dakota Measure 3 has some unique automatic record expungement provisions, and polling suggests that the outcome on election night could go either way.
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Ohio Issue 1: Drug and Criminal Justice Policies - This initiative would reduce prison sentencing for non-violent drug crimes and other low-level, non-violent crimes. Depending on which gubernatorial candidate you ask, Ohio Issue 1 could help alleviate or worsen the state’s opioid epidemic. Opioid overdoses caused 33 deaths per 100,000 Ohioans in 2016.
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California Proposition 10: Local Rent Control - An initiative to allow more local rent control, Proposition 10 brings one of California's key issues, housing, into sharp focus and is also one of the most expensive ballot measure battles in 2018.
For our full list, click here→
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It's clear, Americans are preparing to vote! We are honored that you have chosen Ballotpedia to be one of your trusted resources. You're in great company!
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That's 15% of the number of people expected to vote by next Tuesday (if the number of voters in 2018 is similar to the number of voters in 2014).
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