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Daily Brew: April 25, 2019

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April 25, 2019

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Today's Brew highlights the impact of term limits + a look-back to a noteworthy event in the 2016 Republican presidential race  
The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Thursday, April 25 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. 47 state legislators are term-limited in the 2019 elections
  2. Three years ago, Cruz and Kasich agree to presidential campaign deal
  3. Castor wins runoff between two Democratic-aligned candidates to become mayor of Tampa

47 state legislators are term-limited in the 2019 elections

Last week, I discussed how three state executives are unable to run for re-election in 2019 due to term limits affecting their offices in their states. Today, let’s dive into how term limits are affecting this year’s state legislative elections.

Four states—Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia—are holding regularly scheduled state legislative elections in 2019.

Louisiana is the only state holding regular elections in 2019 where state lawmakers are subject to term limits. Under state law, which was enacted in 1995, legislators can serve no more than three four-year terms.

Of the 15 state legislatures with term limits, Louisiana is the only state where term limits resulted from legislation, rather than through the ballot initiative process.

In 2019, the number of termed-out legislators has increased by 114 percent. Forty-seven of 144 state legislators in Louisiana (33%) are ineligible to run for office because of term limits.

Sixteen state senators—four Democrats and 12 Republicans—are term-limited, which is 41% of the chamber. In the 2015 elections, seven senators were term-limited.

Thirty-one state representatives—13 Democrats, 17 Republicans, and one independent—are term-limited in 2019, representing 30% of the chamber. In the 2015 elections, 15 representatives were term-limited.

Currently, Republicans control the state Senate by a 25 to 14 margin and the state House by a 62 to 39 margin with four independents. The governor’s office is held by a Democrat, John Bel Edwards, who is running for a second term this year. Louisiana is one of 14 states under divided government.

A total of 271 state legislators in 15 states across the country—96 state senators and 175 state representatives—were ineligible to run in the 2018 elections because of term limits. This represented 4% of the 6,066 total seats up for election in November 2018. Thirty-five of those 271 seats (12.9%) changed partisan control in the 2018 elections.

The deadline for candidates to file to run for office in Louisiana is August 8, 2019.

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Three years ago, Cruz and Kasich agree to campaign in different states

Three years ago today, the campaigns of Ted Cruz and John Kasich issued statements announcing that they would focus on different states in an attempt to limit the number of delegates that Donald Trump could receive in certain primaries during the 2016 Republican presidential campaign.

On April 24, 2016, Cruz’ campaign manager, Jeff Roe, said in a statement, “To ensure that we nominate a Republican who can unify the Republican Party and win in November, our campaign will focus its time and resources in Indiana and in turn clear the path for Gov. Kasich to compete in Oregon and New Mexico.”

John Weaver, Kasich’s chief campaign strategist also issued a statement, “Due to the fact that the Indiana primary is winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district, keeping Trump from winning a plurality in Indiana is critical to keeping him under 1,237 bound delegates before Cleveland. We are very comfortable with our delegate position in Indiana already, and given the current dynamics of the primary there, we will shift our campaign's resources West and give the Cruz campaign a clear path in Indiana."

The following week, Trump won the Indiana Republican primary with more than 50% of the vote. Cruz and Kasich came in second and third place, respectively; however, since Indiana was a winner-take-all state, Trump captured all 57 of the state’s pledged delegates.

The day after the Indiana primary, May 3, 2016, Cruz suspended his campaign. A day later, Kasich did the same, effectively ending the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

We covered this story in our Daily Presidential News Briefing on April 25, 2016, and that free newsletter continues to provide a curated account of the day's most important news in presidential politics. Click the link below to subscribe and stay up-to-date on the 2020 presidential election.

Roe discussed the impact of this agreement during last week’s Ballotpedia Insights webinar with Jeff Hewitt where we discussed political campaigning. Click here to watch the recording of that incredibly fascinating discussion.

Castor wins runoff between two Democratic-aligned candidates to become mayor of Tampa

On Tuesday, former police chief Jane Castor defeated philanthropist David Straz in the runoff election for Tampa's open mayoral seat. Mayor Bob Buckhorn (D), who is completing his second term in that office, was term-limited and unable to run for re-election. Castor received 73% of the vote, according to unofficial election night results.

The two candidates initially advanced from a field of seven candidates in the general election held on March 5. In that contest, Castor earned 48% of the vote and finished first in 101 of the city's 103 precincts while Straz received 15 percent.

Castor spent 31 years working for the Tampa Police Department, eventually becoming the first woman to serve as the city’s police chief. She emphasized public safety and traffic congestion during her campaign. Through April 5. 2019, Castor raised $1.0 million and spent $820,000 on her campaign while Straz raised $4.1 million and spent $3.3 million.

Castor, like Buckhorn, is a member of the Democratic Party, so partisan control of the mayor’s office will not change. Among the 100 largest cities in the U.S., Tampa is one of 20 cities with a Democratic mayor holding elections in 2019.


See also

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