Daily Brew: December 19, 2018

December 19, 2018

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Today's Brew takes a deep dive into 2018's ballot measures + a look ahead at 2020 Senate races   Welcome to the Wednesday, December 19 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day: Let’s dig into the 167 statewide measures from this year Kentucky General Assembly convened in special session on pensions Looking at the landscape for 2020 U.S. Senate elections Here’s some highlights from our annual report on statewide ballot measures Notable 2018 topics for statewide ballot measures included elections policy and redistricting, marijuana, restrictions on taxes, Medicaid expansion, Marsy's Law (crime victims rights), energy, abortion, and minimum wage.   Sixty-eight of the 167 measures (41 percent) were put on the ballot through citizen initiative or veto referendum petitions, rather than by state legislatures. As in 2016, this was more than the average of 54 citizen-initiated measures from 1980 through 2014.   In 2018, politicians sponsored, co-sponsored, or developed 33 of the citizen-initiated measures proposed and 13 of the measures that appeared on the ballot. Compared to an overall certification rate of 7.18 percent in 2018, 39.4 percent of politician-sponsored initiatives made the ballot. Politician-sponsored initiatives, however,  were approved at a lower rate than the total number of initiatives in 2018.   Proponents spent $74.4 million on signature petitions for the 68 citizen-initiated measures on ballots. A combined total of 11,110,180 valid signatures from registered voters were required to qualify the measures for the ballots. Key numbers: $1.1 million - $1.2 million: average total cost for qualifying an initiative or veto referendum for the ballot in 2018. It was $1.03 million in 2016. $6.19 - $6.85: average cost per required signature across all the initiatives that were on the ballot in 2018. It was $5.6 in 2016.   An historically high $1.15 billion in contributions were made to  2018 ballot measure campaigns. California and Florida dominated total campaign spending with almost half of all contributions in 2018, but none of the campaigns that spent the most per vote were in California or Florida. Rather Alaska, Colorado, Montana, Nevada, Massachusetts, Montana, South Dakota, and Washington were home to some measures with the highest contributions per vote (CPV). CPV analysis showing the five measures with support and opposition campaigns featuring the biggest differences in Cost Per Vote: 2018’s David and Goliath races: here were 98 measures for which one side received significantly more in contributions than the other. Spoiler alert, Goliath won most of the rounds. Dive into the full report Kentucky General Assembly convened in special session on pensions Gov. Matt Bevin (R) issued a proclamation for a special legislative session "for the sole purpose of considering legislation regarding the Commonwealth's public employee pension plan." Bevin called for the session four days after the Kentucky Supreme Court ruled against the legislative methods used to pass Senate Bill (SB) 151, which would have changed the state employee pension system. The court's ruling invalidated the law. Acting House Speaker David Osborne (R) said, "Our caucus stands willing and able to do the people's business and lead on the critical issues facing Kentucky," he said. House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D) said the proclamation was "the most short-sighted and unnecessary action I have ever seen a governor make." The General Assembly passed SB 151 on March 29 and Bevin signed it on April 10. On April 11, Attorney General Andy Beshear (D), along with the Kentucky Education Association and the Kentucky State Lodge Fraternal Order of Police, challenged the law in court. On December 13, the Kentucky Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that said SB 151 did not comply with the state constitution's requirements for passing bills. Learn more→ A look at the landscape for 2020 U.S. Senate elections Between Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) announcing he would not run and Rep. Martha McSally’s (R-Ariz.) appointment to the Senate, it’s not just the presidential race getting started. Let’s put these announcements into context: Three senators did not run for re-election in 2018: Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), and Orrin Hatch (R-Utah). The Senate seat in Arizona was the only Republican-held Senate seat Democrats flipped in 2018. All 33 Class II senators are up for re-election in November 2020, including three senators who won special elections in the 2018 cycle: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), Doug Jones (D-Ala.), and Tina Smith (D-Minn.). Twelve seats are held by Democrats, while Republicans hold the other 21 Here's a full list of members of Congress who did not run in 2018 →