Welcome to the Thursday, July 26 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Pivoting back to the Pivots: Refresher on the bellwether counties across the country
- The administration releases a relief package for farmers who could be affected by tariffs
How will Pivot Counties behave in 2018?
One year ago, we launched our study of Pivot Counties, the 206 counties that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016. We haven’t forgotten about these counties and will be tracking what happens in the midterm elections. A few data points we will be watching closely:
Voter turnout: Nationwide, the Democratic popular vote margin declined by 2.1 million votes - meaning Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.86 million votes and Barack Obama won by 4.98 million votes. Even though these 206 counties make up only 5 percent of the total votes cast, they accounted for 51 percent of that 2.1 million-vote decline. We are interested in following the turnout in these counties to see what trends may appear. What will turnout look like in these counties in 2018 in a midterm election?
Four of the six states with the most pivot counties feature a sitting incumbent Democratic Senator up for re-election: The 206 Pivot Counties fall within 34 states. Of those 34 states, 19 feature a Democratic or independent senator up for re-election in 2018. The Midwest is the region with by far the greatest concentration of these counties. Over half of the 206 counties fall within six Midwestern states: Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio. Of those six, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Ohio all feature a Democratic senator up for re-election in 2018. These states pivoted to the Republican Party in 2016 in the presidential election. Will that follow again in 2018’s Senate races?
U.S. House elections in districts with Pivots: The 206 Pivot Counties are contained within 108 congressional districts. Of those 108, 68 (63%) are held by a Republican, and the remaining 40 (37%) are held by a Democrat. Looking at the 92 districts that weren’t affected by redistricting in 2014 and 2016, 77 districts (83.7%) are solid Democratic or Republican districts.
The remaining 15 districts can be expected to be among the more competitive U.S. House races in 2018. They breakdown as follows:
- Five districts feature a Republican incumbent in a lean Republican* district
- Two districts feature a Democratic incumbent in a lean Democratic district
- Seven feature a Democratic incumbent in a district that trended more and more Republican from 2012 to 2016.
*A designation of lean Republican or Democratic district indicates that the average margin of victory over the years was less than ten percent.
The remaining district was the only district of the 108 districts featuring Pivot Counties to flip in 2016, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District. New Hampshire's 1st flipped from Republican to Democratic in 2016 and was also the only district to flip every year.
What will happen in the 15 districts expected to be among the most competitive in 2018?
Reverse-Pivot County turnout: Six counties voted for Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 after voting for John McCain (R) in 2008 and Mitt Romney (R) in 2012. We’ve named these the Reverse-Pivot Counties. These six counties saw an average swing of 11.31 percentage points from 2012 to 2016. What will turnout look like in these six counties in 2018 and how will the incumbent legislators be affected?
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