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Daily Brew: May 2, 2019

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May 2, 2019

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Today's Brew highlights the Democratic nomination process, two initiatives in Washington, and presidential election accuracy by state  
The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Thursday, May 2 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. The Democratic presidential nominee will need estimated 1,885 pledged delegates on the first ballot
  2. Washington State Legislature adjourns, approving one initiative and sending the other to the ballot
  3. Which state votes for the winning presidential candidates less than 50% of the time?

How many delegates will a Democratic presidential candidate need to win the nomination?

In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) defeated Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the Democratic presidential primary with support from more than 2,800 pledged delegates and superdelegates.

While the process for selecting and allocating delegates will largely remain unchanged in the 2020 Democratic primary, the Unity Reform Commission—tasked with reviewing the Democratic nomination process for accessibility, transparency, and inclusivity—has introduced one major alteration to the process: Superdelegates will not be allowed to vote on the first ballot at a contested national convention.

In 2020, there will be an estimated 4,532 delegates: 3,768 pledged delegates and 764 superdelegates.

To win the Democratic nomination, a presidential candidate must receive support from a majority of the pledged delegates on the first ballot—an estimated 1,885 pledged delegates.

Roughly two-thirds of the pledged delegates will be awarded in the first two months of the primary cycle.



If the convention is contested and goes to a second ballot or more, superdelegates will be able to vote and a candidate must receive majority support from all delegates—an estimated 2,267 delegates.

State parties are due to finalize and submit their delegate selection plans to the Democratic National Committee by Friday.


Washington State Legislature approves Initiative 1000 and sends Initiative 976 to the 2019 ballot

The Washington State Legislature adjourned its 2019 session on Sunday and decided the fate of two proposed initiatives to the legislature.

The state legislature approved I-1000 largely along party lines with all votes in favor coming from Democratic legislators. Initiative 1000 will allow the state of Washington to implement affirmative action laws and policies while continuing to ban discrimination and preferential treatment. It was approved by a vote of 56-42 in the House and 26-22 in the Senate.

Opponents of Initiative 1000 filed a veto referendum—Referendum Measure 88—on April 29 seeking to overturn the legislature's approval of the initiative. If petitioners for the veto referendum petition drive are able to collect 129,811 valid signatures in 90 days, voters will decide the issue in November 2019.

The legislature adjourned without acting on Initiative 976, so it will instead appear on the 2019 ballot for voter approval or rejection. Initiative 976 is the first citizen initiative to be certified for the ballot in 2019 in any of four states that allow citizen initiatives in odd-numbered years. The measure would do the following:

  • Limit annual license fees for vehicles weighing under 10,000 pounds to $30 except for voter-approved charges;
  • Base vehicle taxes on the Kelley Blue Book value rather than the manufacturer's suggested retail price;
  • Limit certain taxes and fees related to transportation; and
  • Repeal authorization for certain regional transit authorities, such as Sound Transit, to impose motor vehicle excise taxes.

Also on the 2019 ballot in Washington is a constitutional amendment that would authorize the Washington State Legislature to pass bills addressing the succession of powers and duties of public offices during periods of catastrophic incidents that are considered emergencies.

Six statewide ballot measures have been certified for the ballot in four states in 2019. An average of 30 measures has appeared on the ballot in odd years since 2011.

Twenty-three statewide ballot measures have been certified for the 2020 ballot in 11 states. From 2012 through 2018, an average of 169 measures was certified to appear on the general election ballot in even years.

#BallotTrivia

Which state votes for the winning presidential candidates less than 50% of the time?

Ohio has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election cycle since 1964—a streak of 14 races in a row. Which state has the least accurate voting record in the modern presidential era, voting for the winning candidate only 47% of the time since 1900?

A) Georgia →

B) Alabama →

C) New Mexico →

D) Mississippi? →

Click a choice to find out the answer!



See also