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Democrats would need to gain 48 house seats for 2018 to be considered a wave
Often talked about, but never defined, the term wave election is frequently used to discuss potential significant electoral gains by one political party.
In a report released today, Ballotpedia analyzes 100 years of election results to see how each president’s party performed in even-year elections. With that data, Ballotpedia proposes an objective way to define a wave election going forward.
To be classified as a wave election, a set of elections must fall within the 20 percent of elections where the president's party lost the most seats across the last 50 election cycles (100 years).
A collaboration between political scientist Jacob Smith and Ballotpedia, our analyses explores how this definition applies to U.S. House, U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, and state legislative elections and what this means for 2018. We look forward to engaging in discussion about whether it is possible or desirable to objectively define a wave election.
Throughout the rest of this week, we’ll explore the four facets of the data. First, we preview U.S. House elections, which is where political observers most often discuss the possibility of Democratic gains in 2018. Under our definition, Republicans would need to lose 48 House seats for 2018 to qualify historically as a wave.
U.S. House waves in the last 100 years include the Republican takeovers in 1994 and 2010 under Clinton (D) and Obama (D), respectively, and the 1930 and 1932 Democratic gains under Hoover (R) during the Great Depression.
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SCOTUS issues rulings in Gill v. Whitford and Benisek v. Lamone, declines to weigh in on whether maps can be struck down as partisan gerrymanders
The Supreme Court of the United States issued rulings yesterday in Gill v. Whitford and Benisek v. Lamone, two partisan gerrymandering challenges.
The plaintiffs in Gill alleged that Wisconsin's state legislative district plan had been gerrymandered to benefit Republicans. The plaintiffs in Benisek alleged that Maryland's Sixth Congressional District was drawn to benefit Democrats. In neither of these rulings did the court directly address whether a district map can be struck down as unconstitutional for giving one political party advantage over another. Instead, today's rulings were made on standing grounds (as in Gill) or procedural grounds (as in Benisek).
As a result of these rulings, no immediate changes to any district maps are expected. Both cases will return to federal district court for further proceedings. The only remaining redistricting case before the court this term is Abbott v. Perez, a case involving allegations of racial gerrymandering in Texas' congressional and state legislative district maps. A decision is expected before month's end.
At this time, there are no redistricting cases on the court's docket for the coming term, although the court is expected to consider a partisan gerrymandering challenge out of North Carolina at its private conference on Thursday.
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Today’s elections: Washington, D.C.
No statewide primaries take place today, but that doesn’t mean our elections team will be taking the night off. Washington D.C. is holding primaries for mayor, city council, attorney general, one nonvoting U.S. Representative, one shadow U.S. Senator, and one shadow U.S. Representative. Seven of the 13 city council seats are up for election this year, including the chairman, two at-large seats, and four by-district seats. Currently, 11 board members are affiliated with the Democratic Party and two are independent. Mayor Muriel Bowser and Attorney General Karl Racine are also Democrats, as are Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton, Shadow Senator Michael D. Brown, and Shadow Representative Franklin Garcia.
All contested primaries will be Democratic primaries. Of the 34 candidates who will appear on the ballot, 26 are Democratic, four are D.C. Statehood Green Party, three are Libertarian, and one is Republican. Elections for the nonvoting U.S. Representative, mayor, and two city council seat are the only four general elections that will be contested on November 6, 2018.
In addition to the primaries, voters will also decide on Initiative 77, a local measure designed to raise the minimum wage for tipped employees.
Initiative 77 would amend current minimum wage law to require employers to pay tipped employees the same minimum wage as other employees by 2026.
Tipped employees in D.C. currently earn a base wage of $3.33 an hour, while non-tipped employees earn $12.50 an hour. The D.C. city council approved an ordinance in June 2016 to increase the city's minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2020. Under the current ordinance, tipped workers are set to see a base wage increase to $5 an hour by 2020. If Initiative 77 passes, the minimum wage would remain scheduled to increase to $15 in 2020 and would be adjusted based on the Consumer Price Index after that. By 2026, the standard minimum wage would be applied to tipped and non-tipped employees.
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