Daily Brew: November 13, 2018

November 13, 2018

Today's Brew takes a look at how last week's results will impact 2020 redistricting + Democrats hold a leadership vote at the end of the month   Welcome to the Tuesday, November 13 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day: How will the outcome of the midterms affect the 2020 redistricting cycle? The three U.S. House races decided by less than 3,000 votes House Democrats plan to hold leadership elections on Nov. 28 How will the outcome of the midterms affect the 2020 redistricting cycle? The Midterm elections had higher turnout than 2014. Many of you opening this email this morning are new subscribers. Welcome! So, if you’re new here, or even if you’re not, I wanted to plug our Ballot Bulletin newsletter. Our experts track developments in election policy at the federal, state, and local levels. Each issue includes an in-depth feature such as an interview or legislative analysis. We also discuss recent prominent events relating to electoral and primary systems, redistricting, and voting provisions. After speaking with reporters since the election, one big issue that keeps coming up: How does 2018 effect redistricting? I pulled this excerpt from this month’s Bulletin to answer that. Governorships: On Nov. 6, gubernatorial elections took place in 36 states. In 27 of these states, governors will play a part in the redistricting cycle taking place after the 2020 census. In general, governors can exercise one of the following authorities during the redistricting process: Vetoing maps adopted by legislatures Sitting on commissions charged with redistricting Appointing members directly to redistricting commissions Of these 27 governorships, Democrats won 10 and Republicans won 16, with the outcome of one governorship, Georgia's, undetermined. In Kansas and Wisconsin, Democrats won governorships, establishing divided governments in these states (in each state, Republicans controlled the legislatures). In New Hampshire, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) won re-election, but Democrats took both chambers of the state legislature, establishing divided government in the state. In Illinois, Maine, New Mexico, and Nevada, Democrats won governorships, giving their parties trifecta control of their states. The chart below identifies states that elected governors this year who will play a part in the 2020 redistricting cycle. Descriptions of gubernatorial redistricting authority are also provided. Never miss an issue of the Ballot Bulletin The three U.S. House races decided by less than 3,000 votes The election is done, but analysis of the results is only just beginning. Here at Ballotpedia, we love to crunch data and look at the facts. Here’s a simple one to start with - close races. Three of last week's U.S. House elections were decided by margins of less than 3,000 votes. The average U.S. House district contains a population of just under 750,000. The smallest margin between top candidates this cycle was in Texas' 23rd Congressional District. Incumbent Will Hurd (R) beat second-place finisher Gina Ortiz Jones (D) by 1,150 votes—0.55 percent of all votes cast. In North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, Mark Harris (R) beat Dan McCready by 1,790 votes—0.64 percent of the total. Finally, Rep. Chris Collins (R) beat Nate McMurray (D) in New York's 27th Congressional District by 2,910 votes, or 1.07 percent of all votes cast. In comparison, nine races were decided by 3,000 or fewer votes in 2014 (the most recent midterm before last Tuesday’s election). The average margin of victory across all U.S. House elections in 2016 was 34.1 percent. As more results are officially certified by the states, the number of races this year decided by that margin could change. For more information on this cycle's closest House races, see here → House Democrats plan to hold leadership elections on Nov. 28 Democrats regained control of the House in the November 6 elections with a majority of at least 227 members (eight races remain too close to call). Democrats plan to hold elections for House leadership positions on November 28, 2018. Current House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D) is running for speaker of the House, the top leadership position. She served as House speaker from 2007 to 2010 and became minority leader following Democrats' loss of chamber control in the 2010 elections. To be elected to the position, Pelosi needs at least 218 votes from the full chamber. Our analysis of outside media found 56 Democratic members-elect who said they would not support Pelosi or would not commit to voting for her. Of the 56 candidates (which includes seven candidates in races too close to call), 27 said they would oppose Pelosi, 25 would not commit to voting for her, and four said their support for the next House speaker was conditional on that person agreeing to a series of changes in the House rules. Of the 25 who would not commit to supporting Pelosi, two are incumbents, 21 are new members (including 12 elected in Republican-held seats), and two are in races that are too close to call. We will continue tracking member statements here →