State legislative incumbents have lost 266 elections (so far), outpacing 2016
At least 266 incumbent state legislators were defeated last Tuesday. There are still 122 uncalled races, so the total may increase. The 266 defeated incumbents include:
- 44 Democrats
- 202 Republicans
- 20 third party and independent incumbents.
That's more than in 2016 (233 incumbent losses), on par with 2014 (266 incumbent losses), and less than 2012 (294 incumbent losses) and 2010 (502 incumbent losses).
But, the numbers are different if we factor in total primary defeats and retirements to determine total incumbent turnover.
With 147 primary defeats (70 Democratic and 77 Republican) and 1,150 retirements (427 Democrats and 723 Republicans) added in, we arrive at 1,543 in total incumbent turnover, 541 Democrats and 1,002 Republicans. Overall turnover in 2018 is ahead of 2016 (1,369) and 2014 (1,408), but behind 2012 (1,592) and 2010 (1,720).
So far, the chamber with the most incumbent losses is the New Hampshire House with 43. After that comes the West Virginia House with 12 and the New York Senate and Minnesota House with 11 each.
The highest number of general election incumbent losses in recent years came in 2010 when 502 incumbents (482 Democrats and 14 Republicans) were defeated. The highest number of primary losses came in 2012 when 194 incumbents (71 Democrats and 123 Republicans) were defeated.
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