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Welcome to the Wednesday, November 21 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- More than 75 percent of Americans will live under trifecta control in 2019
- At least 38 congressional incumbents lost their bid for re-election in 2018, the highest number since 2010
- Constitutional amendment facts
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More than 75 percent of Americans will live under trifecta control in 2019
The percentage of Americans living under trifecta state governments (where one party holds the governor’s office and both state legislative chambers) increased by 24 million people following the 2018 elections. More than three-fourths of Americans—247 million people—will live in states under single-party government as a result. Divided government state populations are just above 76 million.
- Prior to the election, 68.7 percent of Americans lived under trifectas—20.7 percent in Democratic trifectas and 48.0 percent in Republican trifectas.
- Once all newly elected lawmakers take office in January, 76.5 percent will live under trifectas—34.4 percent in Democratic trifectas and 42.1 percent in Republican trifectas.
The number of trifectas increased from 34 to 37, with Democratic trifectas rising from eight to 14 and Republican trifectas falling from 26 to 23. The number of divided governments (where the parties share control) decreased from 16 to 13.
Here are the trifecta statuses of the 10 most populous states:
Democratic trifectas
- California (39 million)
- New York (20 million)
- Illinois (13 million)
Republican trifectas
- Texas (27.5 million)
- Florida (20 million)
- Ohio (11.5 million)
- Georgia (10 million)
Divided governments
- Pennsylvania (13 million)
- North Carolina (10 million)
- Michigan (10 million)
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At least 38 congressional incumbents lost their bid for re-election in 2018, the highest number since 2010
In the 2018 cycle, 378 U.S. House incumbents and 30 U.S. Senate incumbents ran for re-election. With three races involving incumbents pending, at least 38 incumbents—two Democratic House incumbents, four Democratic senators, 31 Republican House incumbents, and one Republican senator—lost their re-election bids.
- This was the lowest number of U.S. House incumbents seeking re-election in the time period since 2000.
- This was the highest number of U.S. Senate incumbents seeking re-election since 2010.
- Seventeen percent of U.S. Senate incumbents seeking re-election were defeated, including four Democrats. This was the lowest number since the 2014 midterm election when 21 percent of U.S. Senate incumbents were defeated, including five Democrats.
- With one race pending, 33 U.S. House incumbents were defeated in 2018. This was the highest number since the 2010 midterm election when 58 incumbents lost.
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Constitutional amendment facts
Earlier this week, we discussed which state constitutions got longer as a result of 2018 ballot initiatives. Our ballot measures team has been pouring over the results and keeps telling me all sorts of other interesting factoids about state constitutions. So, I thought I would share them with all of you.
- In 2018, 99 constitutional amendments were proposed and voted on in 28 states. Of the 99 proposed amendments, 66 were referred by state legislatures, 26 were initiated by citizens, and seven were referred by the Florida Constitution Revision Commission.
- Overall, 71.77 percent of the proposed amendments in 2018 were approved. The approval rate was higher for legislatively referred constitutional amendments (80.30 percent) than initiated constitutional amendments (46.15 percent). The approval rate of amendments referred by the Florida Constitutional Revision Commission was 100 percent for 2018.
- Statistically, from 2006 through 2018, off-year election cycles featured a higher approval rate for proposed constitutional amendments than even years. In 2007, 28 of the 31 proposed amendments were approved, for a rate of 90 percent. In 2013, amendments passed at a rate of 89 percent. In 2017, all 17 amendments on the ballot were approved, for the highest approval rate since 1947. Only one of the proposed amendments was put on the ballot through a citizen initiative petition. In contrast, 2006 and 2016, the even-numbered years with the highest approval rates, had rates of 74.5 percent and 73.4 percent, respectively. Even-numbered years feature a lot more statewide measures overall and a lot more citizen-initiated measures than odd-numbered years.
- Individually, from 2006 through 2018, nine states saw 100 percent of the proposed constitutional amendments passed. Of these nine states, Maryland featured the most amendments approved at a rate of 100% with a total of 15 amendments proposed and approved. The other eight states with a 100% constitutional amendment approval rate between 2006 and 2018 were Indiana (3), Iowa (2), Kansas (5), Kentucky (2), North Carolina (3), Pennsylvania (5), Tennessee (7), and Vermont (1).
- Louisiana and Texas had the highest number of proposed constitutional amendments from 2006 through 2018. In total, Louisiana had 92 amendments on the ballot in that time period and Texas had 62. Texas and Louisiana are states that do not allow amendments initiated by voters. Louisiana and Texas also had the largest number of approved constitutional amendments at 69 and 59, respectively.
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