Daily Brew: October 15, 2018

October 15, 2018

Also in this edition: Nearly 13 percent of incumbent U.S. representatives and senators will not be on the ballot in November   Welcome to the Monday, October 15 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day: Nevada state spotlight New Mexico state spotlight Nearly 13 percent of incumbent U.S. representatives and senators will not be on the ballot in November Nevada: Battle Born Nevada is holding elections for one U.S. Senate seat, four U.S. House seats, governor and six other state executive offices, three seats on the state Supreme Court, 11 out of 21 state Senate seats, and all 42 state Assembly seats. Six statewide measures are on the ballot. Ballotpedia is also covering local elections in Clark and Washoe counties, including the city of Reno, and school board elections in Clark and Washoe counties. What is the partisan balance in the state? Congress: Democrats hold one U.S. Senate seat and three U.S. House seats. Republicans hold the other U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat. Governor: Republican. Lt. Governor: Republican. Attorney General: Republican. State Senate: 10-8 Democratic majority with one independent member and two vacancies. State Assembly: 27-14 Democratic majority with one vacancy. Races to watch U.S. Senate in Nevada: Dean Heller (R), the only incumbent Republican senator defending his seat in a state that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election, faces Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) and three other candidates in the general election. Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District: Two political newcomers—nonprofit director Susie Lee (D) and small business owner Danny Tarkanian (R)—are running for Rosen’s open seat in this swing district. Nevada’s 4th Congressional District: Steven Horsford (D), Cresent Hardy (R), and four others are running for this open seat in central Nevada. It has changed hands in every election since it was created following the 2010 Census. Nevada Governor: Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D), Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R), and three others are running in this toss-up race. Nevada could become a Democratic state trifecta if Sisolak wins. Nevada Secretary of State: Incumbent Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske (R), who was first elected in 2014, faces state Assemblyman Nelson Araujo (D) in this toss-up race. Nevada is currently a Republican triplex with Republicans holding the offices of governor, attorney general, and secretary of state. Nevada Attorney General: State Sen. Aaron Ford (D), former state Assemblyman Wesley Duncan (R), and Las Vegas attorney Joel Hansen (Independent American) are running to succeed Laxalt. Nevada State Senate: Eleven out of the chamber's 21 seats are up for election. What you need to know if you’re a Nevada voter Early voting dates: October 20 to November 2. Polls open/close: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voter ID: Voters in Nevada are not required to present identification at the polls. Voters in Nevada must sign their names in the election board register at their polling place. The signature is compared with the signature on the voter’s original application to vote or another form of identification, such as a driver’s license, a state identification card, military identification, or another government-issued ID. Bookmark your sample ballot. Learn more         New Mexico: Land of Enchantment New Mexico is holding elections for one U.S. Senate seat, three U.S. House seats, governor and eight other state executive offices, one state Supreme Court seat, six state appellate court seats, and all 70 state house seats. Six statewide measures are on the ballot. Ballotpedia is also covering local elections in Bernalillo County. What is the partisan balance in the state? Congress: Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats and two U.S. House seats. Republican hold the other U.S. House seat. Governor: Republican. Lt. Governor: Republican. Attorney General: Democratic. State Senate: 26-16 Democratic majority. State House: 38-31 Democratic majority with one vacancy. Races to watch United States Senate election in New Mexico: Incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), Mick Rich (R), and Gary Johnson (L) are running in this race. Johnson, who was governor of New Mexico as a Republican from 1995 to 2003, filed to run in the race as a Libertarian on August 14. Heinrich was first elected in 2012 with 51 percent of the vote, which was 5.7 percentage points ahead of his Republican opponent. New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District: State Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) faces attorney Xochitl Torres Small (D) in the general election for the 2nd District. Incumbent Rep. Steve Pearce (R), who represented the district from 2003 to 2009 and who was elected to the seat again in 2010, is running for governor in 2018, leaving his seat open. The district voted for Donald Trump, Mitt Romney, and John McCain in the three presidential elections leading up to the 2018 race. Election forecasters consider this race to be competitive. New Mexico gubernatorial election: U.S. Reps. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) and Steve Pearce (R) are running for governor in the general election. Incumbent Gov. Susana Martinez (R) is prevented by term limits from seeking a third term, leaving the seat open. New Mexico is one of eight states conducting a gubernatorial election in 2018 that was carried by Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 with a Republican governor occupying the governor's mansion. What you need to know if you’re a New Mexico voter Early voting dates: October 20 to November 3. Polls open/close: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voter ID: Voters in New Mexico are generally not required to present identification at the polls. A New Mexico voter must show identification at the polls only if he or she mailed his or her registration application and did not provide verification of his or her identity at that time. Valid forms of identification include photo and non-photo forms. Bookmark your sample ballot. Learn more→ Nearly 13 percent of incumbent U.S. representatives and senators will not be on the ballot in November As we get closer to the midterms, let’s take a quick look at the landscape of incumbent retirements. Nearly 13 percent of incumbent U.S. representatives and senators will not be on the 2018 general election ballot. Further, one of every 10 U.S. House races nationwide in 2018 features just one major party candidate participating in the general election. Fifty-four representatives and senators decided not to run. Four representatives were defeated in partisan primaries in 2018: Democrats Joseph Crowley and Michael Capuano and Republicans Mark Sanford and Robert Pittenger. Thus, 12.9 percent of congressional incumbents will not be on the November ballot. In those 58 open seats where an incumbent either decided not to seek re-election or was defeated in a primary before the general election, there are: 16 races where the incumbent's district overlapped at least one pivot county (a county that voted twice to elect President Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then switched to supporting President Trump for 2016). 22 races where the incumbent chose instead to run for a statewide office or (in one case) for U.S. president. Learn more→