Daily Brew: October 18, 2018

October 18, 2018

Plus, How much revenue would Michigan Proposal 1’s marijuana legalization generate for the state?   Welcome to the Thursday, October 18 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day: Alaska state spotlight Colorado state spotlight Michigan Proposal 1’s marijuana legalization could generate $129.4 million to $287.9 million in revenue Alaska: Beyond Your Dreams Alaska is holding elections for one U.S. House seat, governor and lieutenant governor, 10 of the 20 state Senate seats, and all 40 state House seats. One statewide ballot measure is on the ballot. Ballotpedia is also covering local elections in Anchorage. What is the partisan balance in the state? Congress: Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats and the at-large U.S. House seat. Governor: Independent. Lt. Governor: Democrat. Attorney General: Independent. State Senate: 14-6 Republican majority. State House: 21 Republican, 17 Democrats, and two independent members. Races to watch Alaska Governor: Alaska Gov. Bill Walker (I) is the nation’s only independent governor. He faces challenges from Mark Begich (D) and Mike Dunleavy (R). Walker was first elected in 2014 with support from the state Democratic Party, which backed an Alaska First Unity Ticket with independent candidate Walker as the gubernatorial nominee and Democrat Byron Mallott as his running mate. Walker intended to seek the Democratic nomination this year but said he would run as an independent when Begich (D) announced his candidacy. Race raters consider the race competitive but see Dunleavy (R) to have an edge. If Dunleavy wins and Republicans gain three seats in the state House of Representatives, Alaska would become a Republican trifecta. Late-breaking news from earlier this week - Mallott resigned as lieutenant governor on Tuesday. He said in a statement, "It is a resignation compelled by inappropriate comments I made that placed a person whom I respect and revere in a position of vulnerability….I take full responsibility for this action and apologize to, and seek healing for, the person I hurt." Though his name will still appear on the ballot, Walker said Mallott's successor, Valerie Nurr'araaluk Davidson, would continue to serve if the pair is re-elected. The Division of Elections has conferred with the Department of Law. Under state law, it is too late for a candidate to withdraw from the ballot; that must happen at least 64 days before the general election. Under the Alaska Constitution, a vote for governor is considered a vote for the lieutenant governor running with him or her. Even if a lieutenant governor withdraws, the gubernatorial candidate may remain on the ballot. Accordingly, if Governor Walker is re-elected, Byron Mallott will technically be elected along with him. However, given Mr. Mallott’s resignation, Governor Walker would be able to appoint a lieutenant governor successor consistent with state statute. What you need to know if you’re an Alaska voter Early voting dates: October 22 to November 5. Polls open/close: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voter ID: Non-photo identification is required to vote on Election Day in Alaska. Bookmark your sample ballot. Learn more         Colorado: The Centennial State Colorado is holding elections for seven U.S. House seats, governor and six other state executive offices, one retention election for state Supreme Court, four retention elections for state appellate court, 17 of the 35 state Senate seats, and all 65 state House seats. Thirteen statewide measures are on the ballot. Ballotpedia is also covering local elections in Denver and Adams, Arapahoe, and El Paso counties. What is the partisan balance in the state? Congress: Democrats and Republicans each hold one U.S. Senate seat and Republicans hold a 4-3 U.S. House majority. Governor: Democrat. Lt. Governor: Democrat. Attorney General: Republican. State Senate: 18-16 Republican majority with one independent. State House: 36-29 Democratic majority. Races to Watch Colorado governor: Rep. Jared Polis (D), state Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R), Bill Hammons (Unity), and Scott Helker (L) are running in the election for this open office. Incumbent Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is prevented by term limits from seeking a third term, leaving the seat open. Hillary Clinton (D) carried the state in 2016 by a margin of 5 percentage points. Colorado attorney general: George Brauchler (R), Phil Weiser (D), and William Robinson III (L) are running for the seat. Incumbent Cynthia Coffman (R) is not seeking re-election. Republicans have held the office since 2005. The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) spent $1.7 million on ads supporting Brauchler through September 20, 2018. This was the most RAGA spent in a state during 2018 at that time. Colorado secretary of state: Incumbent Wayne Williams (R), attorney Jena Griswold (D), Amanda Campbell (American Constitution), and Blake Huber (Approval Voting) are running for the seat. Williams was first elected in 2014 by a margin of 2 percentage points. Republicans have won each of the ten previous secretary of state elections. Triplex control of the state is at stake. Colorado is under divided control, with neither party holding a triplex. Colorado’s 6th Congressional District: Incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman (R) is facing a challenge from attorney and former Army Ranger Jason Crow (D) in the election. Coffman was first elected in 2009. Although he won re-election by a margin of victory of two points in 2012, he gained victory with a margin of at least eight points in the last two elections. The Democratic-leaning district also supported Hillary Clinton (D) over Donald Trump (R) by nine points in the 2016 presidential election. The race has received national attention since before the primaries, and political analyst Eric Sondermann theorized in August that "whichever party wins this district will control Congress come January." Third party and independent candidates include Kat Martin (L), Dan Chapin (Unaffiliated), and write-in candidate Christopher Allen (G). Ballot measures: Voters will decide six ballot measures in five states that would change how congressional districts, state legislative districts, or both types are drawn following the decennial U.S. Census. Six is the highest number of redistricting-related ballot measures in a single year since 1982, when nine measures were on the ballot.   What you need to know if you’re a Colorado voter Early voting dates: Colorado is a vote-by-mail state and ballots were mailed starting October 5. In-person voting starts at least seven days prior to election day at polling centers. Polls open/close: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voter ID: All voters who vote in-person must provide identification. Acceptable forms of identification include a Colorado driver’s license or a state-issued ID card. Bookmark your sample ballot. Learn more→ How much revenue would Michigan Proposal 1’s marijuana legalization generate for the state? Estimates range from $129.4 million to $287.9 million Michigan Proposal 1 would allow adults aged 21 years or older to possess and use marijuana for recreational purposes. The measure would create an excise sales tax of 10 percent, which would be levied on marijuana sales at retailers. Revenue from the tax would be allocated to local governments, K-12 education, and road and bridge maintenance. Estimates of the tax revenue that Proposal 1 would generate have varied from $129.4 million to $287.9 million. Earlier in 2018, the Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol, the PAC behind Proposal 1, said legalization would generate about $200 million in tax revenue for Michigan. The coalition hired VS Strategies to estimate how much tax revenue the state would generate, and the estimate was released on October 1. VS Strategies estimated that Proposal 1 would generate $129.4 million in 2024 and thereafter. Scott Greenlee, president of the opposition PAC Healthy and Productive Michigan, responded to the analysis, saying, “What went wrong? The report is very clear: the numbers do not match their promises.” On Monday, the Michigan Senate Fiscal Agency released a fiscal analysis of Proposal 1. While VS Strategies’ estimate was $71 million under the coalition’s original expectation, the Senate Fiscal Agency’s estimate was $88 million above the coalition’s original expectation. The Senate Fiscal Agency reported that $287.9 million in tax revenue would be generated from legalization in 2023. Josh Hovey, spokesperson of the Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol, responded, "Whether you take our conservative estimate or the state's more bullish estimate, the key thing is that Proposal 1 will help the state collect significant and much-needed tax revenue to help fund roads, schools and local communities.” Greenlee also responded, “We're talking about a tiny half a drop in the bucket for the state budget. I know a lot of people are looking at this. It shows further ambiguity of what is actually going to happen.” If approved, Michigan would be the 10th state to legalize recreational marijuana. An additional 29 states have legalized medical marijuana. Besides Michigan, three states are also voting on ballot measures related to marijuana in November 2018. Learn more→ We’re watching our traffic to make sure we can keep up with all the voters using us as a resource. Today, we've had more traffic than The New Yorker.