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Welcome to the Thursday, October 25 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Florida state spotlight
- Oklahoma state spotlight
- Majority of Michigan school board on November recall ballot
Florida: Sunshine State
Florida is holding elections for one U.S. Senate seat, 27 U.S. House seats, governor and four other state executive offices, 22 out of 40 state Senate seats (including two special elections), and all 120 state House seats. One state Supreme Court justice and 17 district court of appeals judges must stand for retention. Twelve statewide measures are on the ballot. Ballotpedia is also covering local elections in Hillsborough County, Miami-Dade County, Orange County, Pinellas County, and Jacksonville.
What is the partisan balance in the state?
Congress: Republicans hold one U.S. Senate seat and 15 U.S. House seats. Democrats hold one U.S. Senate seat and 11 U.S. House seats. One U.S. House seat, formerly held by Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis, is vacant.
Governor: Republican.
Lt. Governor: Republican.
Attorney General: Republican.
State Senate: 22-16 Republican majority with two vacancies.
State House: 75-41 Republican majority with four vacancies.
Races to watch
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U.S. Senate in Florida: Three-term incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) faces Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the general election. While Nelson won his re-election bid in 2012 by a margin of 13 points against Rep. Connie Mack (R)—55 percent to 42 percent—other statewide races, including presidential elections, have been closely contested. Donald Trump (R) won the 2016 presidential election in Florida by 1.2 percentage points, while Barack Obama (D) won the state in the 2012 election by 0.9 percentage points.
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Florida's 16th Congressional District: Six-term incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) is being challenged by personal injury attorney David Shapiro (D). The Tampa Bay Times called this seat the third-most likely to flip in the state. Buchanan won general elections by a margin of victory of at least 7 points in the last three elections, while Trump won the district by 10 points in 2016.
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Florida's 18th Congressional District: Incumbent U.S. Rep. Brian Mast (R) is running against Lauren Baer (D). Before Mast was elected in 2016 by a margin of 11 percentage points, Democrat Patrick Murphy held the seat for two terms. The district backed the Republican presidential nominees in 2012 and 2016 by single-digit margins.
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Florida's 25th Congressional District: Incumbent Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) and former Eleventh Circuit Court Judge Mary Barzee Flores (D) are running in this Republican-leaning district. While Diaz-Balart was elected in 2002 by a margin of 29 percentage points, he faced his closest re-election bid in 2008, defeating Joe Garcia (D) by 6 percentage points.
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Florida's 26th Congressional District: Incumbent U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) faces nonprofit director Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) in this toss-up district. Although Curbelo won re-election in 2016 by 12 points, the district has gone blue in recent presidential elections, backing Obama in 2012 by a margin of 8 points and Clinton in 2016 by 16 points.
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Florida's 27th Congressional District: Former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala (D), broadcast journalist Maria Elvira Salazar (R), and immigration attorney Mayra Joli (I) are running for this open seat. Incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R), who was first elected in 1988, is not seeking re-election.
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Florida Governor: Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D), former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis (R), and five other candidates are running. Elections forecasters call this race a toss-up. Scott, who is term-limited, won the 2010 election by 1.2 percentage points and the 2014 election by 1 percentage point.
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Florida Attorney General: Former circuit court judge Ashley Moody (R), state Rep. Sean Shaw (D), and independent Jeffrey Siskind are running for the seat left open by term-limited state Attorney General Pam Bondi (R). Heading into the election, Florida is one of 22 Republican triplexes, meaning that its governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Republicans.
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Florida State Senate: Republicans have a 22-16 majority in the Florida State Senate heading into the election. Of the 22 seats up for election in 2018, 14 seats are held by Republicans, six are held by Democrats, and two seats previously held by Republicans are vacant.
What you need to know if you’re a Florida voter
Early voting dates: October 27 to November 3.
Polls open/close: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voter ID: Voters in Florida are required to present photo and signature identification on Election Day. If a voter's photo ID does not display his or her signature, he or she will need to supply a second form of identification that does.
Bookmark your sample ballot.
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Oklahoma: Oklahoma is OK
Oklahoma is holding elections for five U.S. House seats, governor and eight other state executive offices, 24 out of 48 state Senate seats, and all 101 state House seats. Four Oklahoma Supreme Court justices, three Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals justices, and five Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals justices are up for retention. Five statewide measures are on the ballot. Ballotpedia is also covering local elections in Oklahoma City and Tulsa as well as Canadian, Cleveland, Oklahoma, Osage, and Tulsa counties.
What is the partisan balance in the state?
Congress: Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats and four U.S. House seats. One U.S. House seat, formerly held by Republican Jim Bridenstine, is vacant.
Governor: Republican.
Lt. Governor: Republican.
Attorney General: Republican.
State Senate: 39-8 Republican majority with one vacancy.
State House: 72-27 Republican majority with two vacancies.
Races to watch
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Oklahoma Governor: Former attorney general Drew Edmondson (D), businessman Kevin Stitt (R), and Chris Powell (L) are running for the gubernatorial seat left open by term-limited Gov. Mary Fallin (R). Republican candidates have won five of the past 10 gubernatorial elections in Oklahoma, while no Democratic presidential nominee has carried the state since Lyndon B. Johnson (D) in 1964. Three election forecasting outlets rate this race "Leans Republican."
What you need to know if you’re an Oklahoma voter
Early voting dates: November 1 to November 3.
Polls open/close: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voter ID: A form of identification is required, but a photo ID is not required.
Bookmark your sample ballot.
Learn more→
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Majority of Michigan school board on November recall ballot
It’s not just the standard fare on the ballots this year.
A recall election seeking to remove four of the seven members of the Britton Deerfield Schools Board of Education in Michigan will be held on November 6. Board vice president Ben Allshouse, board secretary Yvonne Thomas, board treasurer Brian Bartush, and board member Doug Mayher Jr. will be up for recall.
The four members were targeted for recall after the board voted 6-0 to not renew the contract of former high school principal, John Eisley, in April. Recall supporters also listed the board's failure to post meeting minutes in a timely manner as a reason for the recall effort.
The targeted board members said they could not discuss the reasons behind their decision to not renew Eisley's contract. They also said that board meeting minutes were available at the school district office.
Allshouse, Thomas, Bartush, and Mayher were joined in voting to not renew Eisley's contract by board President Todd Ost and board member Doug Armstrong. The seventh member of the board, Brian Delmotte, was absent from the meeting. Recall supporters said the other three members of the board were not targeted for recall because they are already up for regular election in November. Recall supporters said they had candidates ready to run against them in the general election.
A total of 32 school board recall efforts nationwide have been covered by Ballotpedia in 2018. They targeted 72 board members. Eight recall elections have been held so far, and another three more recall elections—including for Britton Deerfield—will be held in November. Ballotpedia covered 33 school board recall efforts targeting 78 members in 2016, and 31 school board recall efforts targeting 65 members in 2014. In 2016, 11 recall efforts made it to the ballot, while seven made it to the ballot in 2014.
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