Incumbents at the state legislative level retiring at the highest numbers since 2012
Today is Part II of our four-part series on competitiveness at the state legislative level. Today we’re looking at the number of open seats in 2018, meaning seats where the incumbent is not seeking re-election.
As discussed yesterday, 6,073 state legislative seats in 46 states are holding elections in 2018. Of those, 1,190—nearly one-fifth—are guaranteed to go to a newcomer since the incumbent state legislator did not file for re-election, the most since 2012. Seven hundred and thirty-one of retiring legislators (61.4 percent) are Republicans and 428 (36.0 percent) are Democrats.
The state with the most legislative retirements is New Hampshire, where 101 seats are guaranteed to newcomers. At 424 seats, New Hampshire's legislature is the nation's largest, and it has topped the list of legislative retirements in each of Ballotpedia's even-yeared competitiveness reports since 2010. South Carolina, Oregon, and Nebraska round out the bottom of the list with eight retirements each.
Total number of incumbent state legislators retiring or resigning, 2018
Relative to the number of seats up for election, Michigan leads in retirements with 68 outgoing legislators, meaning that 45.9 percent of the state's legislative seats are guaranteed to newcomers. Michigan is followed by Arizona (36.7 percent) and Ohio (36.2 percent). All three states have term limits for members of the legislature. The state with the lowest proportion of retirements is South Carolina, with 6.45 percent of seats guaranteed to newcomers. South Carolina is followed by New York (6.57 percent) and Texas (8.43 percent).
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27 states have more retirements this year than in 2014, the last midterm elections cycle
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2 states have the same number of retirements than 2014
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17 states have fewer retirements than in 2014
The state with the largest increase in retirements since 2014 is Hawaii, whose retirement rate increased by 560 percent. The state with the largest decrease is California, whose retirement rate decreased by 60.6 percent.
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