Wendie Fredrickson
Wendie Fredrickson (Green Party) ran for election to the U.S. Senate to represent Montana. She was disqualified from the general election scheduled on November 3, 2020.
2020 battleground election
Incumbent Steve Daines (R) defeated Steve Bullock (D) in the November 3, 2020, general election for United States Senate in Montana.
Daines was first elected in 2014 with 58% of the vote. Prior to his election, the seat had been held by a Democrat since 1913. In 2018, Jon Tester (D) won his Senate election in Montana 50% to 47%.
Bullock was first elected Governor of Montana in 2012 with 49% of the vote to his opponent's 47%. His margin increased in 2016 when he won 50% to 46%. That same year, Donald Trump (R) won Montana in the presidential election with 56% of the vote to Hillary Clinton's (D) 36%.
Both the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic PAC, targeted the race.[1][2]
Independent race rating outlets expected the race to be competitive. The outcome of this race affected partisan control of the U.S. Senate. Thirty-five of 100 seats were up for election, including two special elections. At the time of the election, Republicans had a 53-45 majority over Democrats in the Senate. Independents who caucus with the Democrats held the two remaining seats. Republicans faced greater partisan risk in the election. They defended 23 seats while Democrats defended 12. Both parties had two incumbents representing states the opposite party's presidential nominee won in 2016.
This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.
Elections
2020
See also: United States Senate election in Montana, 2020
United States Senate election in Montana, 2020 (June 2 Democratic primary)
United States Senate election in Montana, 2020 (June 2 Republican primary)
General election
General election for U.S. Senate Montana
Incumbent Steve Daines defeated Steve Bullock in the general election for U.S. Senate Montana on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Steve Daines (R) | 55.0 | 333,174 |
 | Steve Bullock (D) | 45.0 | 272,463 | |
| Total votes: 605,637 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Montana
Steve Bullock defeated John Mues and Mike Knoles (Unofficially withdrew) in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 2, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Steve Bullock | 95.5 | 144,949 |
| John Mues | 2.5 | 3,740 | ||
 | Mike Knoles (Unofficially withdrew) | 2.1 | 3,165 | |
| Total votes: 151,854 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Jack Ballard (D)
- Josh Seckinger (D)
- Wilmot Collins (D)
- Cora Neumann (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. Senate Montana
Incumbent Steve Daines defeated John B. Driscoll and Daniel Larson in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 2, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Steve Daines | 88.0 | 192,942 |
 | John B. Driscoll | 6.4 | 13,944 | |
 | Daniel Larson | 5.6 | 12,319 | |
| Total votes: 219,205 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Watch the Candidate Conversation for this race!
Green primary election
Green primary for U.S. Senate Montana
Wendie Fredrickson defeated Dennis Daneke in the Green primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 2, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Wendie Fredrickson | 66.4 | 504 |
| Dennis Daneke | 33.6 | 255 | ||
| Total votes: 759 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Libertarian primary election
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Susan Good-Geise (L)
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
| U.S. Senate election in Montana: General election polls | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Date |  Daines
|
 Bullock
|
Other | Margin of error | Sample size | Sponsor | ||||
| Montana State University Billings | Oct. 19-24 | 47% | 48% | 5% | ±4.2 | 546 | -- | ||||
| Public Policy Polling | Oct. 26-27 | 47% | 48% | 6% | ±3.3 | 886 | Protect Our Care | ||||
| The New York Times/Siena College | Oct. 18-20 | 49% | 46% | 6% | ±4.4 | 758 | -- | ||||
| NBC Montana/Strategies 360 | Oct. 15-20 | 48% | 47% | 5% | ±4.4 | 500 | -- | ||||
| RMG Research | Oct. 15-18 | 49% | 47% | 5% | ±3.5 | 800 | Political IQ | ||||
| Click [show] to see older poll results | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Date | Peters
|
James
|
Other | Margin of error | Sample size | Sponsor | ||||
| Montana State University Bozeman | Sept. 14-Oct. 2 | 47% | 49% | 4% | ±3.9 | 1,615 | -- | ||||
| Emerson College | Oct. 5-7 | 52% | 43% | 6% | ±4.3 | 500 | -- | ||||
| The New York Times/Siena College | Sept. 14-16 | 45% | 44% | 7% | ±4.8 | 625 | -- | ||||
| Emerson College | July 31-Aug. 2 | 50% | 44% | 6% | ±4.0 | 584 | -- | ||||
| Spry Strategies | July 11-16 | 47% | 44% | 9% | ±3.7 | 700 | American Principles Project | ||||
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | July 11-13 | 49% | 47% | 3% | ±4.2 | 873 | -- | ||||
| Public Policy Polling | July 9-10 | 44% | 46% | 10% | ±2.8 | 1,224 | -- | ||||
| University of Montana | June 17-26 | 43% | 47% | 10% | ±4.3 | 517 | -- | ||||
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[3] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[4]
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Daines | Republican Party | $33,324,451 | $34,075,789 | $107,783 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Steve Bullock | Democratic Party | $49,522,120 | $48,572,770 | $949,350 | As of December 31, 2020 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[5]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[6][7][8]
| Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Montana, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Noteworthy endorsements
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.
| Noteworthy endorsements | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endorsement | Daines (R) | Bullock (D) | ||||
| Newspapers and editorials | ||||||
| Billings Gazette[9] | ✔ | |||||
| Bozeman Daily Chronicle[10] | ✔ | |||||
| Missoulian[11] | ✔ | |||||
| Montana Standard[12] | ✔ | |||||
| Elected officials | ||||||
| President Donald Trump (R)[13] | ✔ | |||||
| Individuals | ||||||
| Former Montana Secretary of State Bob Brown (R)[14] | ✔ | |||||
Campaign themes
2020
Ballotpedia survey responses
See also: Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection
Wendie Fredrickson did not complete Ballotpedia's 2020 Candidate Connection survey.
See also
2020 Elections
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "NRSC," accessed September 16, 2020
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "SMP," accessed September 16, 2020
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Billings Gazette, "Gazette endorsement: For U.S. Senate, Steve Bullock," October 25, 2020
- ↑ Bozeman Daily Chronicle, "Bullock our best bet at changing Congress," October 5, 2020
- ↑ Missoulian, "Montanans should send Governor Bullock to the Senate," October 25, 2020
- ↑ Montana Standard, "Standard endorsement: For Senate, we recommend Steve Bullock," October 25, 2020
- ↑ Facebook, "Steve Daines on February 28, 2020," accessed September 17, 2020
- ↑ Twitter, "Steve Bullock on October 9, 2020
