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This week in Ballotpedia election updates:
Florida's gubernatorial candidates tout law enforcement support, the Arizona Democratic Party prioritizes the secretary of state race, and we preview state legislative races in Florida and Washington.
Have a tip for us or see something we missed? As always, let me know at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues.
   
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Upcoming Dates to Know
Voter registration deadlines
October 17 - Massachusetts, New York, South Carolina, Wisconsin
October 18 - Nevada
October 19 - Nebraska
October 21 - Illinois
October 22 - Alabama, California, Wyoming
Early voting periods
October 17 - Kansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oregon
October 19 - Washington
October 20 - New Mexico, Nevada
October 22 - Alaska, Arkansas, District of Columbia, Idaho, Illinois, Massachusetts, Texas |
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Elections at a Glance
Federal
23 - Seats needed to swing the U.S. House
2 - Seats needed to swing the U.S. Senate
State
36 - Governor races
18 - Vulnerable trifectas
5 Democratic
13 Republican |
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Each week, we provide an overview of a midterm race that we find fascinating and that we think you will, too.
Virginia's 7th: A Toss-up House district with interesting recent history
Incumbent Rep. David Brat (R) faces challenges from Abigail Spanberger (D) and Joe Walton (L) in a contest three independent ratings groups have called a toss-up.
That’s a change for Democrats, who haven’t won the 7th District in 50 years. But 7th District voters have shown once before they are willing to consider alternatives.
In what Jonathan Martin of The New York Times called "one of the most stunning primary election upsets in congressional history," Brat, in his first run for elected office, defeated House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 Republican primary. Brat was re-elected in 2016 with 58 percent of the vote.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the 7th District on its 2018 target list, hoping the District's suburban voters’ opposition to the president would motivate them against Brat. The District contains portions of Henrico and Chesterfield counties, both of which voted Democratic in 2017's gubernatorial election. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won Henrico, while Trump won Chesterfield by two percentage points.
A member of the House Freedom Caucus, Brat is campaigning on his votes for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and for the repeal of Obamacare in addition to his call for a balanced federal budget. Spanberger said she decided to challenge Brat the day the House passed an Obamacare repeal measure for which Brat voted. Spanberger is campaigning on strengthening the health care law, a promise to work across the aisle, and her background as a CIA officer.
Adelsons donate $32 million to conservative super PACs in third quarter
The Republican Party’s biggest donors, Sheldon and Miriam Adelson, donated $32 million to Republican and conservative PACs in the third quarter, bringing their total contributions in this election cycle to at least $88 million.
The Adelsons donated to the Congressional Leadership Fund, America First Action, and the ESAFund.
Other big donors in 2018 include former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer, who have donated $100 million and $42 million, respectively, backing Democratic congressional candidates.
Sanders embarks on nine-state tour for Democrats in battleground races
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is touring nine states with battleground races in October, including Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada.
“He wanted to go where he thinks he can be helpful in energizing the base and bringing in young people and independent voters and working-class voters who supported him,” said Jeff Weaver, Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign manager.
Sanders will appear at campaign rallies with Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Rep. Jacky Rosen (D), who is challenging Sen. Dean Heller (R) in Nevada. Sanders is also backing three California candidates: Rep. Barbara Lee (D) and newcomers Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) and Mike Levin (D).
Sanders will also campaign in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, and Michigan.
Trial set for NY congressman in early 2020
Rep. Chris Collins’ (R) trial for insider training is scheduled to begin February 3, 2020.
Collins had suspended his campaign in New York’s 27th Congressional District in August after being arrested by the FBI. But Collins announced Sept. 19 he would continue to seek re-election.
Collins denied the charges and said, “The stakes are too high to allow the radical left to take control of this seat in Congress.”
Democratic nominee Nate McMurray has highlighted Collins’ indictment in videos on his campaign channel.
Collins has attacked McMurray for being open to impeaching the president, who won the District by 25 percentage points in 2016.
Two recent polls show Collins tied with or leading McMurray by three percentage points, within both polls’ margin of error.
Upcoming debates
Candidates in key races face off in debates and candidate forums across the country. Follow the links for coverage of debates held last week in the following races:
- Wednesday: Sherrill (D) and Webber (R), New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District
- Friday: Feehan (D) and Hagedorn (R), Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District
- Saturday: Shalala (D), Salazar (R), and Joli (I), Florida’s 27th Congressional District
- Sunday: Brown (D) and Renacci (R), U.S. Senate in Ohio
- Monday: Sinema (D) and McSally (R), U.S. Senate in Arizona
- Monday: Londrigan (D) and Davis (R), Illinois' 13th Congressional District
- Monday: McAdams (D) and Love (R), Utah’s 4th Congressional District
- Monday: Spanberger (D) and Brat (R), Virginia’s 7th Congressional District
- Tuesday: O’Rourke (D) and Cruz (R), U.S. Senate in Texas
- Tuesday: Golden (D), Poliquin (R), Bond (I), and Hoar (I), Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
- Tuesday: Pureval (D) and Chabot (R), Ohio’s 1st Congressional District
- Tuesday: Cunningham (D) and Arrington (R), South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District
Check out the following debates happening this week:
In Florida gubernatorial race, candidates tout support from law enforcement
In a new wave of ads, gubernatorial nominees Ron DeSantis (R) and Andrew Gillum (D) touted their support from Florida law enforcement officials and organizations.
A Republican Party of Florida ad accusing Gillum of corruption and of evading an FBI investigation aired Oct. 10. On Oct. 11, the Gillum campaign responded with an ad featuring five county sheriffs praising Gillum's record as Tallahassee mayor and said the GOP’s claims were false.
On Oct. 12, the Broward Sheriff's Office Deputies Association, representing sheriff's deputies in the state's second-largest county, endorsed DeSantis and criticized Gillum for signing a pledge from the Dream Defenders which included a promise to seek reduced funding for law enforcement.
Arizona Democratic Party prioritizes Secretary of State election
According to spending disclosures filed with the Federal Communications Commission, Arizona’s Democratic Party has spent just over $2.2 million on ads in support of Secretary of State nominee Katie Hobbs (D) while allocating no ad money to gubernatorial nominee David Garcia (D).
Political consultant and former state party director DJ Quinlan said that the figures reflected a perception Garcia had fallen behind incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey (R). State party spokesman Les Braswell denied the suggestion, saying, "We are supporting both of those campaigns financially and we’re committed to ensuring that all of our candidates can win in November."
Arizona is one of five states without a lieutenant governor. The secretary of state is first in line to succeed the governor. Four of the nine most recent secretaries of state have succeeded a governor who left office partway through their term.
Hobbs faces businessman Steve Gaynor (R), who defeated incumbent Michele Reagan (R) in the Aug. 28 primary.
Ohio gubernatorial election heats up in race's final weeks
Outside money and national political figures have flocked to Ohio in recent weeks as the race for the state's open gubernatorial seat enters its final weeks.
The American Federation of Teachers and the National Education Association, both of whom have endorsed Democratic nominee Richard Cordray through their state affiliates, announced Oct. 12 a $1 million digital and television ad campaign supporting Cordray. The groups' ad criticizes GOP nominee Mike DeWine's health care policy, saying DeWine opposes a mandate barring health insurance providers from denying coverage based on pre-existing conditions. DeWine's campaign denies the charge.
President Trump (R) appeared at an Oct. 12 rally in Warren County in support of DeWine and other Republican candidates. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) headlined an event on Cordray's behalf in Akron Oct. 13.
Upcoming debates
Candidates in key races are facing off in debates and candidate forums across the country. Follow the links for coverage of debates held last week in the following races:
- Wednesday Hubbell (D) and Reynolds (R), Governor of Iowa
- Thursday: Pritzker (D) and Rauner (R), Governor of Illinois
- Thursday: Edmondson (R) and Stitt (R), Governor of Oklahoma
- Friday: Kaul (D) and Schimel (R), Attorney General of Wisconsin
- Saturday: Polis (D) and Stapleton (R), Governor of Colorado
- Sunday: Kaul (D) and Schimel (R), Attorney General of Wisconsin
- Monday: Fung (R), Raimondo (D), Gilbert (Moderate), and Trillo (I), Governor of Rhode Island
- Tuesday: Tong (D) and Goselin (G), Attorney General of Connecticut
Check out the following debates happening this week:
Ballotpedia has identified 21 state legislative battleground chambers--10 Democratic and 11 Republican--in 2018. Each week we will preview one chamber held by each party.
🔴 Florida Senate: 22-16 Republican majority with two vacancies
Alongside a competitive gubernatorial race between Andrew Gillum (D) and Ron DeSantis (R), the Florida State Senate presents a chance for Democrats to end the state’s Republican trifecta, which formed after the 1998 elections.
Unlike 2016, where all 40 seats were up due to court-ordered redistricting, 22 seats are up for election Nov. 6. Republicans control 16 of those 22 seats, including six Ballotpedia identified as battleground races. Six Republican-held seats, including two of the battlegrounds, are open.
If Democrats win five of the six Republican-held battlegrounds and defend District 40-- which incumbent Annette Taddeo (D) flipped from Republican to Democratic control in a 2017 special election--they can win control of the Senate. District 40 is the only Democratic seat where Republicans fielded a candidate.
🔵 Washington Senate: 25-24 Democratic majority
Democrats are defending their Senate majority for the first time. In 2017, Manka Dhingra (D) won a special election to replace the late Sen. Andy Hill (R), giving Democrats control of the Senate and a trifecta in Washington.
Democrats had a 25-24 numerical majority before the 2017 special election, but Sen. Tim Sheldon (D) caucused with Republicans, giving the GOP a one-seat working majority.
Republicans could regain control if their candidates defeat Democratic incumbents in District 21, District 44, or District 45 (Dhingra’s seat). In each of the three seats, the Democratic candidates on the ballot received a combined total of at least 55 percent of the vote in the Aug. 7 top-two primary.
Democrats could expand their majority if they win District 30, where incumbent Mark Miloscia (R) was outpaced by Democratic challengers with a combined 52 percent to his 48 percent in the top-two primary, or defeating Tim Sheldon in District 35. Democrat Irene Bowling led Sheldon in the top-two primary, 38.2 percent to 35.1 percent. However, Republican candidates received the other 26.7 percent of the vote.
Voters in 37 states will decide 157 statewide ballot measures Nov. 6. Each week, we'll summarize trends in the issues voters will decide. For more on ballot measures, click here.
Energy, oil and gas, and property rights
Voters in Arizona, Nevada, and Washington will decide ballot initiatives designed to reduce the use of fossil fuels and increase the use of renewable resources.
The environmental organization NextGen Climate Action is financing Arizona Proposition 127 and Nevada Question 6. Both measures would require electric utilities to acquire 50 percent of their power from renewable sources.
In Washington, voters will decide on Initiative 163, which would enact a fee on carbon emissions from power plants, refineries, and other specified emitters.
Voters in Nevada will also consider Question 3, which would eliminate electricity monopolies and require a competitive energy market. Although Question 3 would not directly affect the use of renewables in Nevada, supporters of the initiative say deregulation would increase renewable use, while opponents say it would decrease renewable use.
Measures concerning energy on the November ballot:
In Colorado, voters will decide two initiatives concerning oil and gas development and property. Proposition 112 would mandate that new oil and gas development projects, including fracking, be a minimum of 2,500 feet from occupied buildings and other areas designated as vulnerable. Amendment 74 would require property owners be compensated for any reduction in property value caused by state laws or regulations.
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Ballotpedia is surveying candidates ahead of the general elections. Are you a candidate for public office? Complete a survey, and you may be featured here.
Suzanne Smith, Democratic candidate for the Texas State Board of Education
 What would be your top three priorities, if elected?
While there are many issues that are important to our future, three stand out:
- Strong start – The statistics are clear. Quality early education from birth to third grade provides the highest ROI for the future success of our students. I will work to expand high-quality pre-K to full day for economically disadvantaged students in Texas with leading early childhood alliances.
- Whole child - A whole-child approach focuses on the intersection between physical space and the cognitive, social and emotional development of students rather than focusing on one element in isolation. The learning environments we create can either help or hinder learning, development, teaching and collaboration. Attention must be given to children who come to school hungry, whose asthma problems inhibit their activity or who are being bullied at school or feel unsafe, because issues like these hinder learning. I will work to bring attention to these issues through various health, education, and poverty groups.
- Teaching recruitment, excellence and retention – Teachers are one the biggest drivers of student success. But, attracting and retaining quality teachers has been one of our biggest failures as a system and a community in North Texas. To increase educator effectiveness, we must address both the root cause of this failure and the systemic issues that have resulted in our teacher shortage. I will work to bring attention to this issue alongside organizations, such as AFT.
Read all of Smith’s responses →
Kathleen Crank, Republican candidate for the Maryland House of Delegates
 What would be your top three priorities, if elected?
Economy. I moved to Maryland from Virginia in 2005. I was shocked how many businesses had gravitated away from Maryland to Virginia! I will work with Governor Hogan to change this and bring business and jobs to Maryland. I pledge to support policies that will continue the dramatic economic gains Maryland has made over the past four years.
Taxes. I pledge to continue to support policies that will reduce taxes for all Maryland citizens and Maryland businesses.
Protecting Life and Property. Prince George’s County has made significant reductions in recent years in its overall crime rate. Nonetheless, it remains one of the highest in the State. I pledge to support creative solutions to our criminal justice needs, and stop the statistics that place Maryland fourth highest in the nations for sex trafficking crimes.
Read all of Crank's responses →
Special guest analysis: Democrats’ strong challenges in two Minnesota U.S. House races
Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.
Democrats seeking to take back control of the U.S. House have two opportunities to pick up seats in Minnesota. In MN-2, Republican incumbent Rep. Jason Lewis is finishing his first term. He is being challenged, as he was in 2016, by Democratic (DFL) businesswoman Angie Craig. That year, Lewis defeated Craig by a small margin in a race which had a liberal third party candidate. This year, only Lewis and Craig are on the ballot. Craig has held a small lead in early polling, and the race is considered a toss-up.
In MN-3, a suburban Minneapolis district, veteran Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen faces a serious challenge from businessman and distillery heir Dean Phillips. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won this district by a clear margin. But Paulsen also won by a clear margin against his DFL opponent. Paulsen is a rare example of a GOP congressman in an increasingly Democratic district. President Trump has endorsed all GOP congressional candidates in Minnesota — except for Erik Paulsen. Paulsen is a member of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, and a savvy campaigner. But Phillips can self-fund, and is waging an energetic campaign. Phillips has a small lead in the latest polls, but like MN-2, this race is too close to call.
Election analysis: What we're reading
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