Each week, we provide an overview of a midterm race that we find fascinating and that we think you will, too.
History a big part of Georgia gubernatorial race
The Nov. 6 gubernatorial election between former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) and Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) already features a number of historical firsts. The outcome could deliver even more.
Democrats had won every Georgia gubernatorial race since Reconstruction. That long streak ended in 2002. Since then, Republicans have won the office by margins of between 5 and 20 percentage points.
The Abrams-Kemp race appears closer than recent contests, with two ratings outlets calling it a Toss-up and a third calling it Tilt Republican. Several recent polls show either Kemp and Abrams tied or Kemp leading within the margin of error.
Regardless of the outcome, Abrams’ candidacy has already made a bit of history. She is the first black woman to secure a major party gubernatorial nomination in U.S. history and the first woman of any race to do so in Georgia.
Abrams is campaigning on her background growing up in poverty, saying it helps her look out for working families, and on building a coalition of black and white voters.
Kemp is campaigning on a Georgia First platform, modeled off the president’s “America First” agenda. Kemp says he will reduce regulations on businesses to spur job growth, oppose illegal immigration, and oppose giving benefits to those who can work but don't.
With Libertarian candidate Ted Metz on the ballot, it is possible no candidate will receive more than 50 percent of the vote on Nov. 6. If this occurs, the top two finishers will compete in a Dec. 4 runoff election.
The last general election runoff for a major statewide Georgia race was the 2008 Senate election. U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) defeated challenger Jim Martin (D) 58 percent to 42 percent in the runoff after coming about 9,000 votes short of the 50 percent threshold in the November general election.
National figures headline rallies for Heller, Rosen in Nevada Senate race
President Donald Trump (R) campaigned for incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R) and former Vice President Joe Biden (D) did the same for Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen (D) Saturday, the first day of early voting in Nevada.
Trump spoke in Elko County, which he won in 2016 by more than 55 percentage points.
Biden spoke at a Las Vegas rally for Rosen and other Democrats in Clark County, one of the two Nevada counties Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
On Monday, former President Barack Obama (D) also headlined a rally for Rosen and other Nevada Democratic candidates in Las Vegas.
Heller is the only Republican senator up for re-election in a state Clinton won in 2016. He was appointed in 2011 and won a full term in 2012 by 1.2 percentage points. Clinton won Nevada by 2.4 percentage points in 2016.
Donnelly invokes Trump and Reagan in new ads
Incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly (D), one of 10 Democratic senators up for re-election in a state Trump won in 2016, portrays himself as an opponent of the “radical left” in his recent campaign ads for U.S. Senate in Indiana.
In one clip, Donnelly says he supports U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and wants to fund a border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Quoting President Ronald Reagan (R), Donnelly said he wanted to pursue “peace through strength” by investing in the military.
In another ad, Donnelly says, “The liberal left wants to chop defense spending. I’m not into a fair fight. I’m about giving our troops the edge.”
Trump won Indiana by 19 percentage points in 2016. He campaigned in Indiana on Aug. 30 and Donald Trump Jr. appeared at a rally with Donnelly’s Republican rival, Mike Braun, Monday.
Graham goes on cross-country tour for Republican candidates, skips West Virginia
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who said he has never before campaigned against a colleague, is embarking on a 12-state tour to boost Republican candidates in key House and Senate races.
Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said, “President Trump has enlisted Senator Graham, a key ally in confirming Justice Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, to go on the road for Republican candidates. Voters are fired up about the disgraceful confirmation process and the Democrats’ disturbing mob attacks.”
Graham will campaign in Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
Absent from the list is West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin (D) is running for re-election in a state the president won by a margin of 42 percentage points in 2016. Manchin is the only Democrat who voted to confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
NRCC gives Salazar $1.5 million boost against Shalala in FL-27
The National Republican Congressional Committee has made a $1.5 million ad buy in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, a Republican-held district The New York Times called "the best Democratic pick-up opportunity in the country.”
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala (D), who would be the second-oldest congressional freshman in history if she won, faces Maria Elvira Salazar (R), a Cuban-American broadcast journalist with roots in the district. Immigration attorney Mayra Joli (I) rounds out the ballot.
Although retiring incumbent Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) has represented the district since its creation in 2013, Hillary Clinton (D) won the 27th by 20 percentage points in 2016—her biggest victory margin in any Republican-held district in the country.
Election forecasters call the race Leans Democratic, but polls conducted in October have Salazar and Shalala trading the lead by single-digit margins.
Upcoming debates
Candidates in key races face off in debates and candidate forums across the country. Follow the links for coverage of debates held last week in the following races:
- Wednesday: Feinstein (D) and de León (D), U.S. Senate in California
- Wednesday: Brown (D) and McMorris Rodgers (R), Washington’s 5th Congressional District
- Wednesday: Schrier (D) and Rossi (R), Washington’s 8th Congressional District
- Thursday: McCaskill (D) and Hawley (R), U.S. Senate in Missouri
- Thursday: Heitkamp (D) and Cramer (R), U.S. Senate in North Dakota
- Thursday: Smith (D) and Smith (D), Washington’s 9th Congressional District
- Friday: Rosen (D) and Heller (R), U.S. Senate in Nevada
- Saturday: Brown (D) and Renacci (R), U.S. Senate in Ohio
- Sunday: Fletcher (D) and Culberson (R), Texas’ 7th Congressional District
- Monday: Casten (D) and Roskam (R), Illinois' 6th Congressional District
- Tuesday: Delgado (D) and Faso (R), New York’s 19th Congressional District
- Tuesday: Pappas (D) and Edwards (R), New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District
- Tuesday: Luria (D) and Taylor (R), Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District
Check out the following debates happening this week:
Alaska Governor Bill Walker suspends re-election campaign
Alaska Governor Bill Walker (I) announced Oct. 19 he was suspending his re-election campaign and endorsed former Sen. Mark Begich (D) for the job. The announcement came days after Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott (D) announced his resignation after making unspecified inappropriate comments to an unidentified woman. Mallott had been running for re-election on a ticket with Walker, and his resignation came too late for a replacement candidate to be officially selected.
Walker's name will remain on the ballot because his announcement occurred after the legal deadline to withdraw from the race. Ahead of Walker's withdrawal, three polls showed former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R) leading with an average of 45 percent support. Begich and Walker each had an average of 25 percent support.
Illinois gubernatorial race reaches campaign finance milestone
With a $15 million contribution to his campaign Oct. 20, Illinois Democratic gubernatorial nominee JB Pritzker (D) broke Meg Whitman’s (R) 2010 record for self-funding. Pritzker’s donation brought his overall self-funding to $161.5 million to Whitman’s $144 million.
Pritzker is challenging incumbent Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner (R).
Pritzker’s contribution brought overall fundraising across all candidates to $267.4 million, making Illinois' 2018 gubernatorial election the most expensive in U.S. history.
Whitman's 2010 race against then-former California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) had been the previous record-holder, with $251.9 million in total fundraising, according to an analysis from FollowTheMoney.org.
Heading into the election's final days, Pritzker (D) has $28.5 million cash on hand to Rauner's $7.6 million. Conservative Party nominee Sam McCann has $2.0 million, and Libertarian nominee Kash Jackson has $700.
BlackPAC launches $8 million voter mobilization campaign
Political advocacy group BlackPAC announced an $8 million get out the vote effort targeting black voters in 10 states. The group, founded in 2016, launched similar efforts in 2017, targeting voters in Alabama's U.S. Senate special election and Virginia's statewide elections.
The campaign includes two of the three states with black major-party gubernatorial nominees. While BlackPAC did not announce expenditures in Maryland, where former NAACP President Ben Jealous (D) is running for governor, it did announce efforts to boost turnout on behalf of former state Rep. Stacey Abrams (D) in Georgia and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) in Florida. Both Abrams and Gillum won endorsements from BlackPAC in their primaries. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate both races as toss-ups. Inside Elections rates the Florida election as "Tilts Democratic" and the Georgia election as "Tilts Republican."
Upcoming debates
Candidates in key races face off in debates and candidate forums across the country. Follow the links for coverage of debates held last week in the following races:
- Wednesday: Polis (D) and Stapleton (R), Governor of Colorado
- Thursday: Lamont (D), Stefanowski (R), and Griebel (I), Governor of Connecticut
- Friday: Walker (R) and Evers (D), Governor of Wisconsin
- Friday: Faber (R) and Space (D), Ohio Auditor
- Sunday: DeSantis (R) and Gillum (D), Governor of Florida
- Sunday: Johnson (R) and Walz (D), Governor of Minnesota
- Sunday: Ellison (D) and Wardlow (R), Attorney General of Minnesota
- Monday: Sununu (R) and Kelly (D), Governor of New Hampshire
- Tuesday: Polis (D) and Stapleton (R), Governor of Colorado
- Tuesday: Noem (R) and Sutton (D), Governor of South Dakota
- Tuesday: Moody (R) and Shaw (D), Attorney General of Florida
- Tuesday: Abrams (D) and Kemp (R), Governor of Georgia
Check out the following debates happening this week:
Ballotpedia has identified 21 state legislative battleground chambers--10 Democratic and 11 Republican--in 2018. Each week we will preview one chamber held by each party.
🔴 New Hampshire House: 212-167 Republican majority (2 Libertarians and 19 vacancies)
The 400-member New Hampshire House—the nation’s largest legislative chamber outside the U.S. House—is competitive again after switching partisan hands four times in the past six elections. It went from Republican to Democratic control in 2006 and 2012 and from Democratic to Republican control in 2010 and 2014.
Ballotpedia identified 227 potentially competitive seats spread across 35 single-member and 68 multi-member districts (the House has 105 single-member districts and 99 multi-member districts that have between two and 11 seats each). The competitive seats either had slim margins of victory or voted for the presidential candidate of the opposite party in 2016. Democrats have won five Republican state House seats in special elections since 2016.
New Hampshire became a Republican trifecta in 2016 when the GOP captured the governor’s office and retained the state House and the state Senate, which is also expected to be competitive Nov. 6.
🔵 Delaware Senate: 11-10 Democratic majority
The Democratic trifecta in Delaware is on the line again two years after Republicans narrowed the Democratic advantage in the state Senate from 12-9 to 11-10 in 2016. The Senate was briefly tied 10-10 after Sen. Bethany Hall-Long (D) resigned in January 2017 to become lieutenant governor. Democrat Stephanie Hansen won a special election in February to replace Hall-Long in District 10.
Republicans have another shot at District 10 and the majority Nov. 6. Although Hansen won the special election by more than 18 percentage points, Hall-Long won her 2014 election by just 2.2 points. Hansen faces Christine Metzing (R) in the general election.
Democrats could also expand their majority by winning District 21, currently held by Sen. Bryant Richardson (R). Richardson defeated Democratic incumbent Robert Venables in 2014 by 7.1 percentage points. Democrats could also defeat Sen. Gregory Lavelle (R) in District 4. Hillary Clinton (D) won the District by 12.4 percentage points in 2016.
Voters in 37 states will decide 155 statewide ballot measures Nov. 6. Two measures were ruled invalid last week. Each week, we'll summarize trends in the issues voters will decide. For more on ballot measures, click here.
State supreme court rulings invalidated ballot measures in Arkansas and Hawaii last week.
The Arkansas Supreme Court threw out several thousand signatures previously counted for Issue 3, the legislative term limits initiative, and invalidated the measure.
The Hawaii Supreme Court invalidated a constitutional amendment that would have authorized the state Legislature to enact a surcharge on investment properties, with revenue from the surcharge earmarked for public education. The court held the ballot language for the amendment was not clear.
Both rulings occurred too close to the election to remove the measures from the ballot. Any votes cast on the measures will not be counted.
These two court decisions reduced the total number of November statewide measures from 157 to 155, and the number of citizen-initiated ballot measures from 65 to 64.
Abortion on the ballot
Abortion access and abortion funding measures are on the ballot on three states.
Alabama Amendment 2 would make it state policy to "recognize and support the sanctity of unborn life and the rights of unborn children, including the right to life" and state that nothing in the constitution provides a right to an abortion or requires funding of abortions.
West Virginia Amendment 1 would add a provision saying nothing in the constitution provides a right to an abortion or requires funding of abortions.
The Alabama and West Virginia questions are constitutional amendments put on the ballot by state legislators.
The Oregon measure was put on the ballot through a citizen initiative petition. It would amend the state constitution to prohibit public funding of abortion, except when medically necessary or required by federal law.
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