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Ballotpedia's Polling Index: Opinion polling during the Trump administration, 2017-2021

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Polling indexes: Opinion polling during the Trump administration

During President Donald Trump's (R) term, Ballotpedia tracked 2,895 approval polls from 21 polling firms that asked voters about the direction of the country and their approval of Congress' and President Trump's (R) job performance. This page is an overview of opinion polling averages during Trump's term. Ballotpedia's polling indexes are an average of polls that measure public sentiment on presidential job approval, congressional job approval, and satisfaction with the overall direction of the country.

Ballotpedia's polling index was updated daily on weekdays from January 27, 2017, through the end of President Trump's term on January 20, 2021. The most recent poll released by each qualifying source was included in each day's opinion averages. Polls were removed from the opinion averages when the pollster released a more recent poll or if 30 days had passed since the poll had been in the field, whichever occurred first. This means that all the figures on this page, even those referring to specific dates, are averages from across multiple polls rather than numbers taken from any one poll.

To view the current polling index, click here. For a comparison of opinion polling under the Trump and Biden administrations, click here.

On this page, you will find coverage of three polling averages:

  • Presidential job approval: This average tracks the proportion of Americans who approved of President Trump's (R) job performance.
  • Congressional job approval: This average tracks the proportion of Americans who approved of Congress' job performance during President Trump's (R) term.
  • Direction of the country: This average tracks the proportion of Americans who felt the country was headed in the right direction during President Trump's (R) term.

Polling averages

The chart below displays all three polling averages tracked on this page. Scroll to one of the below sections for more specifics on a particular average.

Presidential approval

HIGHLIGHTS
  • President Trump's average approval rating ranged from a high of 47% to a low of 37%, with an overall average across his term of 42%.
  • His disapproval rating ranged from a high of 58% to a low of 43% with an overall average across his term of 53%.
  • The approval rating spread—the difference between the president's average approval and disapproval ratings on any one given day—ranged from an average 4% net approval to an average 21% net disapproval, with his overall average spread at 11% disapproval.


    • President Trump average approval rating, 2017-2021
    Year Overall average approval Highest approval average Lowest approval average Overall average disapproval Highest disapproval average Lowest disapproval average Overall average approval spread[1] Most positive approval spread Most negative approval spread
    Year 1
    Jan. 20, 2017 - Jan. 19, 2018    		 40% 47% 37% 54% 58% 43% -13% 4% -21%
    Year 2
    Jan. 20, 2018 - Jan. 19, 2019    		 42% 44% 39% 53% 56% 52% -11% -8% -17%
    Year 3
    Jan. 20, 2019 - Jan. 19, 2020    		 43% 45% 41% 53% 56% 51% -10% -6% -15%
    Year 4
    Jan. 20, 2020 - Jan, 20, 2021    		 44% 47% 39% 53% 58% 50% -9% -4% -19%
    Overall 43% 47% 37% 53% 58% 43% -11% 4% -21%


    Largest approval spreads

    The five weeks during President Trump's term when his weekly average approval spread[1] was highest were:

    1. Jan. 23-27, 2017: President Trump's average approval spread for the week was +2.3%, with his approval rating averaging 45.9% and his disapproval rating averaging 43.6%.
    2. Jan. 30 - Feb. 3, 2017: President Trump's average approval spread for the week was -1.8%, with his approval rating averaging 44.1% and his disapproval rating averaging 45.9%.
    3. Feb. 6-10, 2017: President Trump's average approval spread for the week was -3.6%, with his approval rating averaging 44.6% and his disapproval rating averaging 48.2%.
    4. March 20-24, 2017: President Trump's average approval spread for the week was -4.2%, with his approval rating averaging 44.6% and his disapproval rating averaging 48.8%.
    5. March 13-17, 2017: President Trump's average approval spread for the week was -4.3%, with his approval rating averaging 44.6% and his disapproval rating averaging 48.9%.



    The five weeks during President Trump's term when his weekly average approval spread was lowest were:

    1. Aug. 28 - Sept. 1, 2017: President Trump's average approval spread for the week was -20.2%, with his approval rating averaging 37.2% and his disapproval rating averaging 57.5%.
    2. Aug. 21-25, 2017: President Trump's average approval spread for the week was -19.4%, with his approval rating averaging 37.7% and his disapproval rating averaging 57.0%.
    3. Aug. 14-18, 2017: President Trump's average approval spread for the week was -19.1%, with his approval rating averaging 37.8% and his disapproval rating averaging 56.9%.
    4. Dec. 18-22, 2017: President Trump's average approval spread for the week was -19.1%, with his approval rating averaging 37.9% and his disapproval rating averaging 56.9%.
    5. Dec. 11-15, 2017: President Trump's average approval spread for the week was -18.9%, with his approval rating averaging 37.9% and his disapproval rating averaging 57.1%.

    Complete poll results

    Click here to view our complete database of qualifying presidential approval polls for the Trump administration.

    Congressional approval

    HIGHLIGHTS
  • For the first two years of President Trump's term, both chambers of Congress had Republican majorities. Control was split during the second two years of his term, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans controlling the Senate.
  • Congress' approval rating ranged from 30% to 12% during President Trump's term, with an overall average of 18%.
  • Congress' disapproval rating ranged from 76% to 52% during President Trump's term, with an overall average of 66%.
  • The approval rating spread—the difference between Congress' average approval and disapproval ratings on any one given day—ranged from an average 23% net disapproval to an average 63% net disapproval, with an overall average of 48% net disapproval.

    • U.S. Congress average approval rating, 2017-2021
    Year Overall average approval Highest approval average Lowest approval average Overall average disapproval Highest disapproval average Lowest disapproval average Overall average approval spread[1] Most positive approval spread Most negative approval spread
    Year 1
    Jan. 20, 2017 - Jan. 19, 2018    		 16% 25% 12% 69% 74% 58% -53% -38% -63%
    Year 2
    Jan. 20, 2018 - Jan. 19, 2019    		 18% 24% 12% 70% 76% 63% -52% -40% -63%
    Year 3
    Jan. 20, 2019 - Jan. 19, 2020    		 20% 22% 16% 65% 70% 60% -45% -39% -53%
    Year 4
    Jan. 20, 2020 - Jan, 20, 2021    		 19% 30% 12% 61% 69% 52% -42% -23% -55%
    Overall 18% 30% 12% 66% 76% 52% -50% -23% -63%


    Largest approval spreads

    The five weeks during President Trump's term when Congress' weekly average approval spread[1] was highest were:

    1. April 6-10, 2020: Congress' average approval spread for the week was -23.7%, with its approval rating averaging 28.6% and its disapproval rating averaging 52.2%.
    2. April 13-17, 2020: Congress' average approval spread for the week was -24.2%, with its approval rating averaging 29.4% and its disapproval rating averaging 53.7%.
    3. March 30 - April 3, 2020: Congress' average approval spread for the week was -26.6%, with its approval rating averaging 27.0% and its disapproval rating averaging 53.6%.
    4. April 20-24, 2020: Congress' average approval spread for the week was -27.2%, with its approval rating averaging 29.4% and its disapproval rating averaging 56.6%.
    5. April 27 - May 1, 2020: Congress' average approval spread for the week was -27.3%, with its approval rating averaging 29.4% and its disapproval rating averaging 56.7%.



    The five weeks during President Trump's term when Congress' weekly average approval spread[1] was lowest were:

    1. April 16-20, 2018: Congress' average approval spread for the week was -62.0%, with its approval rating averaging 12.8% and its disapproval rating averaging 74.8%.
    2. Oct. 30 - Nov. 3, 2017: Congress' average approval spread for the week was -61.0%, with its approval rating averaging 12.7% and its disapproval rating averaging 73.7%.
    3. Oct. 23-27, 2017: Congress' average approval spread for the week was -60.8%, with its approval rating averaging 12.6% and its disapproval rating averaging 73.4%.
    4. Nov. 6-10, 2017: Congress' average approval spread for the week was -59.8%, with its approval rating averaging 13.2% and its disapproval rating averaging 73.0%.
    5. Aug. 7-11, 2017: Congress' average approval spread for the week was -59.6%, with its approval rating averaging 14.1% and its disapproval rating averaging 73.7%.

    Complete poll results

    Click here, then select the "Congressional Approval" tab to view our complete database of qualifying Congressional approval polls for the Trump administration.

    Direction of the country

    HIGHLIGHTS
  • The percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the right direction ranged from 43% to 20% during President Trump's term, with a termwide overall average of 35%.
  • The percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction ranged from 72% to 43% during President Trump's term, with a termwide overall average of 58%.
  • The direction of the country spread—the difference between the percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the right direction and those who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction—ranged from a net 4% to a net 53% who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction during President Trump's term. The overall termwide average was a net 23% of Americans who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction.

    • Direction of the country rating, 2017-2021
    Year Overall average % who felt the country was headed in the right direction Highest average % who felt the country was headed in the right direction Lowest average % who felt the country was headed in the right direction Overall average % who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction Highest average % who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction Lowest average % who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction Overall average direction of the country spread[2] Most positive approval spread Most negative approval spread
    Year 1
    Jan. 20, 2017 - Jan. 19, 2018    		 34% 40% 29% 57% 65% 43% -23% -4% -36%
    Year 2
    Jan. 20, 2018 - Jan. 19, 2019    		 38% 43% 34% 54% 59% 45% -16% -6% -25%
    Year 3
    Jan. 20, 2019 - Jan. 19, 2020    		 37% 41% 33% 57% 61% 53% -20% -12% -28%
    Year 4
    Jan. 20, 2020 - Jan. 20, 2021    		 30% 41% 20% 62% 72% 54% -32% -14% -53%
    Overall 35% 43% 20% 58% 72% 43% -23% -4% -53%

    Largest approval spreads

    The five weeks during President Trump's term when the direction of the country spread[2] was most positive were:

    1. May 21-25, 2018: A net 6.3% of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, with 39.7% saying it was headed in the right direction and 46.0% saying it was headed in the wrong direction.
    2. Jan. 15-19, 2018: A net 6.4% of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, with 38.6% saying it was headed in the right direction and 45.0% saying it was headed in the wrong direction.
    3. May 14-18, 2018: A net 6.8% of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, with 39.3% saying it was headed in the right direction and 46.1% saying it was headed in the wrong direction.
    4. May 28 - June 1, 2018: A net 11.1% of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, with 38.9% saying it was headed in the right direction and 50.0% saying it was headed in the wrong direction.
    5. Sept. 24-28, 2018: A net 11.7% of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, with 42.1% saying it was headed in the right direction and 53.8% saying it was headed in the wrong direction.



    The five weeks during President Trump's term when the direction of the country spread[2] was most negative were:

    1. July 27-31, 2020: A net 49.6% of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, with 21.9% saying it was headed in the right direction and 71.5% saying it was headed in the wrong direction.
    2. Aug. 3-8, 2020: A net 49.0% of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, with 22.6% saying it was headed in the right direction and 71.5% saying it was headed in the wrong direction.
    3. July 20-24, 2020: A net 48.9% of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, with 21.9% saying it was headed in the right direction and 70.8% saying it was headed in the wrong direction.
    4. July 6-10, 2020: A net 46.2% of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, with 22.8% saying it was headed in the right direction and 69.0% saying it was headed in the wrong direction.
    5. July 13-16, 2020:[3] A net 45.7% of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, with 23.0% saying it was headed in the right direction and 68.7% saying it was headed in the wrong direction.

    Complete poll results

    Click here, then click the "Direction of Country" tab to view our complete database of qualifying polls about the direction of the country under the Trump administration.

    Sources

    For Ballotpedia's presidential approval, congressional approval, direction of the country, and generic congressional ballot polling results, we take an average of the most recent polls (from the last 30 days, with some exceptions for major news events) on one or more of these topics conducted by the following sources:

    Ballotpedia chose to include polls from these organizations in our averages because we regard their methodologies as broadly trustworthy and reliable. If you know of other outlets who do aggregate polling on these topics, email us. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results from the above sources are published.


    Questions

    Typical poll questions asked either online or by phone include:

    Presidential approval

    • "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?"[4]
    • "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama has handled his job as president?"[5]
    • Some polls also allow respondents more than two options, such as Strongly Approve, Somewhat Approve, Somewhat Disapprove, or Strongly Disapprove.[6]

    Congressional approval

    • "Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the United States Congress is handling its job?"[7]
    • "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?"[8][9]

    Direction of country

    • "Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?"[10]
    • "All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?"[11]
    • "Would you say things in this country today are generally headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track?"[12]

    Generic congressional ballot

    • "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?"[13]
    • "Thinking about the elections in 2018, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in the district where you live?"[14]
    • "What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s congressional elections—a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?"[15]

    Understanding polling

    Below we briefly highlight three aspects of public polling that illustrate both the complexity of polling and how polls tend to differ from one another. Understanding these concepts is key to interpreting what polls mean and underscores the value of aggregating polling results.

    Contact method

    Pollsters use a variety of different methods to contact potential survey participants. From the 1930s to the 1980s, pollsters generally did their work through direct contact: going door-to-door, a remarkably expensive and time-consuming method.[16] Nowadays, pollsters rely upon telephones and the internet. Neither of these approaches comes without challenges. Fewer Americans today, for example, live in households with landlines than they did 20 or even 10 years ago. On the other hand, not every American—particularly in older generations—has a cell phone. To get around this, many pollsters call a combination of landlines and cellphones for a survey. An additional problem is that, with the rise of caller-ID, fewer people pick up the phone to participate in surveys—part of a systemic problem in the modern polling industry known as the response rate. Some pollsters have to looked to the internet as a workaround for this issue, but analysts continue to debate the accuracy and dependability of online polls.[17][18]

    A study by FiveThirtyEight found that variances in polls about President Trump's favorability stemmed primarily from the collection method. Polls of registered or likely voters tended to be more favorable to Trump than those that polled adults generally. Automated or online polls also resulted in more favorable rankings than those conducted with live phone calls. The data for these findings was taken from polls conducted between Feb. 1 and Feb. 19, 2017.[19]

    There are also differences among polling firms in who contacts the participants. Some phone-based surveys use live-interviewers, while others use automated interactive voice responders.[18]

    Contact methods of featured polls

    SourceContact methodFiveThirtyEight Grade*
    CBS NewsLive phoneN/A
    The Economist / YouGovOnline3 stars
    Fox NewsLive phoneN/A
    GallupLive phone2.5 stars
    Pew ResearchLive phone2.5 stars
    Quinnipiac UniversityLive phone2.8 stars
    Rasmussen Reports (Pres. Approval)Automated phone + onlineN/A
    Rasmussen Reports (Direction of Country)Automated phoneN/A
    Reuters / IpsosOnline2.8 stars
    USA Today / Suffolk UniversityLive phone2.9 stars
    The Wall Street Journal / NBCLive phoneN/A
    The Washington Post / ABCLive phone3 stars
    Morning ConsultOnline1.9 stars
    TIPP InsightsPhone1.8 stars
    Public Policy PollingPhone + online1.4 stars
    The Marist PollLive phone2.9 stars
    Monmouth UniversityLive phone2.9 stars
    CNNLive phone2.8 stars
    Harris Insights & AnalyticsOnline1.5 stars
    Emerson CollegePhone2.9 stars

    *Last updated January 2025. FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings were calculated based on historical accuracy in predicting elections, sample sizes, methodology, etc. Find out more here.

    The sample and margin of error

    Pollsters can’t realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sample—usually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individuals—that accurately represents the country’s population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the country’s estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.

    Samples are also where margins of error (MoE) come into play. The MoE describes the potential range of variation for a poll’s results in the context of its representative sample and the actual population. For example, if a poll with a margin of error of 3 percentage points showed that 47 percent of respondents approve of candidate X, that means the pollster believes, based on the representative sample in the poll, anywhere between 44 and 50 percent of the actual population approves of candidate X. Generally speaking, a larger sample size means a smaller MoE, while a smaller sample size means a larger MoE. Other factors, such as the poll’s design, probability formulas, and weighting methods, can also affect MoE.[20][21]

    Question framing

    Though all polling firms, in general, are after the same goal—to find out what the public thinks about a given topic or issue—they don’t always ask their questions the same way. Studies have found that differences in how questions are worded—even subtle differences—can lead to a range of results. In 2003, for example, Pew Research found that when they asked respondents if they “favor or oppose taking military action in Iraq to end Saddam Hussein’s rule,” a total of 68 percent responded that they favor military action. But when Pew added to the end of that question, “... even if it meant that U.S. forces might suffer thousands of casualties,” 43 percent responded in favor of military action.[22]

    The number of possible answers that pollsters provide to respondents has also been known to produce different results. With questions about presidential approval and disapproval, for instance, some firms only give respondents the options of saying approve or disapprove. Other firms, however, give respondents more flexibility by allowing them to respond with answers such as “strongly approve” or “somewhat disapprove.” Again, these slight differences have historically led to differing results among polling firms.[23]

    Trust in sources

    Public perception of the various sources cited here varies. Pew Research published a study on this topic in 2020, detailing how members of various idealogical groups (conservatives and liberals) trusted or distrusted popular media organizations. The results from this study for the news organizations included in Ballotpedia's polling data are listed below. By providing a variety of sources of polling results side-by-side, we hope to mitigate the influence of potential bias. All of the major news sources selected for Ballotpedia's polling index were rated as more trusted than distrusted in the overall results from all respondents.[24]

    Trust levels in polling sources by ideology

    The following chart includes data found in a 2024 survey by YouGov. Full results are available here.

    For questions on polls and methodology, email: editor@ballotpedia.org.

    See also

    Ballotpedia daily polling averages:

    More on Ballotpedia:

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Refers to the difference between average approval and average disapproval. A positive spread means average approval was higher than average disapproval and a negative spread means average disapproval was higher.
    2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Refers to the difference between the average percentage of respondents who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction and the average percentage of respondents who felt the country was headed in the right direction. A positive spread means more respondents felt the country was headed in the right direction and a negative spread means more respondents felt the country was headed in the wrong direction.
    3. ↑ No data were recorded for July 17, 2020.
    4. ↑ YouGov, "The Economist/YouGov Poll," August 27-29, 2017
    5. ↑ The Washington Post, "Washington Post-ABC News Poll," January 12-15, 2017
    6. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Obama Approval: Comparing the Numbers," November 25, 2013
    7. ↑ YouGov, "The Economist/YouGov Poll," January 14-17, 2017
    8. ↑ CBS News, "CBS News Poll: Expectations for the Trump Presidency," January 13-16, 2017
    9. ↑ Gallup, "Gallup Poll Social Series: Mood of the Nation," January 4-8, 2017
    10. ↑ CBS News, "CBS News Poll: Expectations for the Trump Presidency," January 13-16, 2017
    11. ↑ Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies, "NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey," January 12-15, 2017
    12. ↑ YouGov, "The Economist/YouGov Poll," January 14-17, 2017
    13. ↑ YouGov, "The Economist/YouGov Poll," August 12-14, 2018
    14. ↑ Reuters/Ipsos, "Core Political," August 15, 2018
    15. ↑ Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies, "NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey," July 15-18, 2018
    16. ↑ Gallup, "How does Gallup polling work?" accessed January 12, 2017
    17. ↑ The New York Times, "Online Polls Are Rising. So Are Concerns About Their Results," November 27, 2015
    18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 FiveThirtyEight, "Live Polls And Online Polls Tell Different Stories About The Election," August 31, 2016
    19. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Why Polls Differ On Trump’s Popularity," February 20, 2017
    20. ↑ Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
    21. ↑ MIT News, "Explained: Margin of error," October 31, 2012
    22. ↑ Pew Research Center, "Questionnaire design," accessed January 12, 2017
    23. ↑ The Wall Street Journal, "When Wording Skews Results in Polls," September 25, 2010
    24. ↑ Pew Research Center, "Ideology reveals largest gaps in trust occur between conservatives and liberals," January 24, 2020


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