Daily Brew: An update on 2018 primary election competitiveness

June 8, 2018

More open seats, more candidates, more contested races + Minnesota filing deadline brings new match-ups + Illinois governor signs complete budget bill for the first time since 2015   More open seats, more candidates, more contested races In the 34 states with primary filing deadlines that have already passed, here’s a look at Ballotpedia-collected data on the congressional, state legislative, state executive, and state judicial filings to see how they differ from two and four years ago.  In 2018, an average of 2.68 candidates have filed per seat up for election. In 2016, 2.26 candidates ran per seat, and in 2014, 2.23 candidates ran per seat on the ballot. Translation: more candidates are running per seat. 21 percent of seats are open. In 2016, 17 percent of seats were open, and there were 16.8 percent open seats in 2014. Translation: Incumbents are retiring at a higher rate than prior years. 26.8 percent of possible primary races are contested in 2018. Comparatively, 21.8 percent of primaries were contested in 2016, and 19.9 percent were contested in 2014. Translation: Intra-party energy is higher than prior years, giving voters more choices at the primary polls. 28.1 percent of incumbents are facing contested primaries. In 2016, 24 percent of incumbents faced a primary opponent, while in 2014, 23.7 percent of incumbents faced a contested primary. Translation: More incumbents are seeing intra-party challenges. Learn more         Minnesota filing deadline brings new match-ups You’ve probably heard by now about the last-minute musical chairs from Minnesota’s June 5 filing deadline. These changes occurred after Minnesota Attorney General Lori Swanson (D), who previously stated she would run for re-election, instead filed for governor on June 4. Democratic candidates Debra Hilstrom and Mike Rothman, who both withdrew from the attorney general election after Swanson’s re-election announcement, re-entered the race. U.S. Representative Keith Ellison (D) also filed for the race, leaving Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District open. Eight Democratic candidates filed for the seat on June 5, including three current members of the state legislature. These last minute match-ups can’t happen in every state. To appear on the Minnesota primary ballot, candidates need to submit signature petitions or pay a filing fee. For example, candidates for state executive offices must submit 2,000 signatures or pay a $300 filing fee. With the option of paying a filing fee, candidates can enter races closer to the filing deadline than they would if collecting signatures.  Learn more about Minnesota elections→ Learn more about ballot access laws in other states→ New edition: The Federal Vacancy Count Ballotpedia’s latest report on judicial vacancies is now available. This month, there were four new judicial vacancies, 19 new nominations, and seven new confirmations. There are 148 vacancies out of 890 active judicial positions on courts covered in this report.  Read the report→ Illinois governor signs complete budget bill for the first time since 2015 On June 4, 2018, Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) signed a $38.5 billion budget bill—the first complete budget he signed since taking office in 2015. The Illinois State Legislature approved the budget on bipartisan lines and sent the bill to the governor on May 31, 2018. House Republican Leader Jim Durkin said, "Both sides did not get everything they hoped for, but our priorities - Republican and Democrat - have been met." Rauner said in a statement, "I'm signing this legislation because it is a step in the right direction, but it is not perfect. ... We still need to enact reforms that bring down the cost of government, make the state friendlier to job creators, and ignite our state economy so it grows faster than government spending." Rauner faces businessman J.B. Pritzker (D) in his bid for re-election to the governor’s seat this year. Both Pritzker and Rauner have made use of self-funding; as of May 18, 2018, Pritzker had contributed $76.5 million to his own campaign while Rauner had contributed $67.8 million to his election fund since the 2014 election. Because of the personal wealth of the candidates, political observers have said that the race could surpass California's 2010 gubernatorial election as the most expensive in American history. Learn more→