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Daily Brew: December 1, 2023
Welcome to the Friday, December 1, Brew.
By: Samuel Wonacott
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Highlights from our report on Washington Supreme Court campaign finance and case outcomes
- Update on this year’s and next year’s ballot measure certifications
- #FridayTrivia: Legislators in how many states in 2022 and 2023 introduced at least one bill related to RCV?
Highlights from our report on Washington Supreme Court campaign finance and case outcomes
State supreme courts don’t get as much attention as the U.S. Supreme Court, but in many ways, the 52 (yes, 52—OK and TX have two courts each) state courts of last resort exercise just as much influence over our lives. Over the years, we’ve released several in-depth reports on state supreme courts (in addition to our regular daily coverage of state supreme court elections, opinions, and more). In 2020, for example, we published studies that looked at the partisan leanings of all 341 active justices and which courts featured the most and least unanimous decisions.
On Nov. 29, we released our latest—an analysis of Washington Supreme Court campaign finance and case outcomes from 2013 to 2022. The analysis helps shed light on the ideological dynamics in an officially nonpartisan office.
Washington, a Democratic trifecta, is one of 13 states that elects supreme court justices in nonpartisan elections. Nine justices sit on the court, and they each serve six-year terms. Three seats are up for election every two years.
We compiled data on more than 1,500 financial contributions and 1,751 court opinions, and identified more than 2,000 groups or individuals involved in—or adjacent to—the lawsuits. Based on available information, such as political activity, public issue position statements, and donations to candidates or PACs, we categorized those who gave significant contributions as having either a progressive or conservative ideological lean. Case outcomes were similarly designated based on the main arguments and the outcomes plaintiffs and amici sought.
Let’s take a look at the highlights, beginning with campaign finance.
Campaign finance
There have been 17 Washington Supreme Court elections since 2013, eight of which were contested. In those 17 elections:
- Among donors identified as progressive or conservative, progressive donors were responsible for over 99% of significant donations to Supreme Court candidates who won their races..
- Conservative donors accounted for 97% of significant donations to candidates who lost.
- More than 43% of significant contributions came from donors in the legal field. Politicians, or those involved in politics, were responsible for 13% of contributions. Labor, the third largest category, contributed 12%.
All contributions from donors in the following fields—or associated with the following causes—went to winning candidates:
- Personal injury
- Native American tribe
- Criminal defense
- Abortion
- Environmental
- LGBTQ
All contributions from donors in agriculture or those associated with Second Amendment advocacy went to losing supreme court candidates.
Significant contributions from sources identified as progressive to campaigns totaled $1.5 million from 2013 through 2022—46% of total contributions to winning candidates. Significant contributions from sources coded as conservative to losing state supreme court candidates totaled $1.3 million over the same period, or 65% of total contributions to losing candidates.
Court case outcomes
After analyzing thousands of the court’s opinions, we categorized those as favorable or partially favorable to the party or parties before the court. Here’s what we found:
- Among the sample of plaintiffs, petitioners, appellants, defendants, and respondents categorized as progressive, 72% received favorable decisions and 28% received unfavorable ones.
- Among the sample of parties classified as conservative, 15% received favorable rulings and 85% received unfavorable ones.
- Progressive individuals or groups that submitted amicus briefs backed the winners 75% of the time and the losers 25% of the time.
- Conservative individuals or groups that submitted amicus briefs backed the winners 13% of the time and the losers 87%.
Thirty-three states are holding state supreme court elections in 2024. Click here to learn about those elections.
Click below to read the full report.
Update on this year’s and next year’s ballot measure certifications
Louisiana decided the final four statewide measures of the year on Nov. 18. Let’s quickly review what happened in 2023, and then turn our attention to 2024 (which is one month away—happy December!).
- In 2023, 41 statewide measures were certified for the ballot in eight states. An average of 31 measures were certified in odd-years between 2011 and 2021.
- So far, 55 statewide measures have been certified in 24 states for elections in 2024. An average of 51 measures were certified at this point between 2010 and 2022. An average of 164 measures were certified in even numbered years from 2012 to 2022.
On average, the months with the highest ballot measure certification activity are June through August before the election.
Here’s an update on the latest ballot measure activity.
Signatures have been filed for nine initiatives in four states—Florida, Michigan, Massachusetts, and Washington. Seven were filed during the past two weeks. The initiatives pending signature verification are:
- Florida Amendment 3, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2024)
- Michigan $15 Minimum Wage Initiative (2024)
- Massachusetts Repeal Competency Assessment Requirement for High School Graduation Initiative (2024)
- Massachusetts Regulated Access to Psychedelic Substances Initiative (2024)
- Massachusetts Minimum Wage for Tipped Employees Initiative (2024)
- Massachusetts Authorization of State Auditor to Audit General Court Initiative (2024)
- Massachusetts Unionization and Collective Bargaining for Transportation Network Drivers Initiative (2024)
- Massachusetts App-Based Drivers as Contractors and Labor Policies Initiative (2024)
- Washington Initiative 2117, Prohibit Carbon Tax Credit Trading and Repeal Carbon Cap-and-Invest Program Measure (2024)
In Massachusetts and Washington, initiated statutes are indirect, meaning the initiative first goes to the state legislature. Legislators then have a certain number of days to adopt the initiative into law. In Washington, when legislators take no action or reject the initiative, the initiative is put on the ballot for voters to decide. In Massachusetts, petitioners collect a second round of signatures to place the initiative on the ballot.
In Florida and Michigan, the process is direct—the initiative goes directly to the ballot after signature verification.
Click below to read the latest on 2024 ballot measures.
#FridayTrivia: Legislators in how many states in 2022 and 2023 introduced at least one bill related to RCV?
In the Tuesday Brew, we looked at a proposed initiative in Colorado that would establish RCV in state executive, state legislative, and congressional elections. The initiative could appear on the 2024 ballot.
Colorado is not the only state considering RCV, an electoral system in which voters rank candidates by preference on their ballots. Next year, voters in Nevada and Oregon will weigh in on RCV measures. And in Idaho, supporters of an RCV measure are currently collecting signatures to put it before voters in 2024.
Legislators in how many states in 2022 and 2023 introduced at least one bill related to RCV?
