How many Americans could live under trifecta state governments after the 2018 elections?
With most of the nation’s focus on Congressional elections, we wanted to take a moment to dig deeper into trifectas - where one party controls a state governorship and the state legislature. Earlier this year we told you about the breakdown of the American population based on whether citizens are in a trifecta state or divided government.
Our elections analysts crunched the numbers looking at possible best-case scenarios for both political parties. In other words, if Democratic candidates have a good night, what might the trifecta landscape look like when everyone wakes up on Nov. 7? And vice versa for Republicans - if the GOP has a strong evening on Nov. 6, what is a possible best-case scenario for them?
Before we get into the figures, a refresher - currently, there are 26 Republican trifectas representing 48 percent of the country’s population, eight Democratic trifectas representing 21 percent of the population, and 16 divided governments representing 31 percent of the population.
We calculated best-case scenario election results for both parties, based on the seats and chambers up for election, gubernatorial race ratings, and the number of seats needed to flip control of legislative chambers
If Democrats achieve their best-case scenario, there will be 25 Democratic trifectas representing 61.3 percent of the population, 13 Republican trifectas representing 21.4 percent of the population, and 12 divided governments representing 17.3 percent of the population.
If Republicans achieve their best-case scenario, there will be 37 Republican trifectas representing 66.2 percent of the population, three Democratic trifectas representing 15.4 percent of the population, and 10 divided governments representing 18.5 percent of the population.
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