Trifecta vulnerability in the 2018 elections
A state government trifecta is a term to describe single party government, when one political party holds the governorship, a majority in the state senate, and a majority in the state house. Trifecta control of a state affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda without requiring as much support from a minority party. Gaining or breaking trifectas thus often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle.
In the eight years preceding the 2018 elections, a state government trifecta was broken or gained 52 times. On this page, we assessed the likelihood of each existing state government trifecta breaking, and of new state government trifectas forming, as a result of the 2018 elections.[1]
Of the 26 Republican trifectas at the time of the election, four were broken. The trifectas in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin were among the five that Ballotpedia identified as highly vulnerable, while the trifecta in Kansas was one of four rated moderately vulnerable. None of the three somewhat vulnerable Republican trifectas were broken. None of the eight Democratic trifectas at the time of the election, including the five Ballotpedia rated as vulnerable, were broken.
The 2018 elections caused six new Democratic trifectas to form. Colorado, Illinois, New Mexico, and New York were among the six states Ballotpedia identified as potential new Democratic trifectas, while Maine and Nevada were among the six toss-up states where Ballotpedia predicted each party had a chance of picking a trifecta up. Neither of the two states Ballotpedia projected as potential new Republican trifectas gained a trifecta.
For more on state government trifectas at the time of the election, click here.
For more on how vulnerability was calculated, click here.
For more on vulnerable trifectas in 2019, click here.
Vulnerable state government trifectas
| Democratic Party Current status: 8 trifectas Not vulnerable: 3 Somewhat vulnerable: 1 Moderately vulnerable: 1 Highly vulnerable: 3 |
Republican Party Current status: 26 trifectas Not vulnerable: 14 Somewhat vulnerable: 3 Moderately vulnerable: 4 Highly vulnerable: 5 |
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Vulnerable trifectas
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Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details. States listed above in bold had trifectas broken as a result of the 2018 elections.
Potential new trifectas
| Predicted Democratic pickups Slight possibility: 2 Moderate possibility: 4 Highly vulnerable Republican trifectas: 5 |
Toss-ups 6 |
Predicted Republican pickups Slight possibility: 2 Moderate possibility: 0 Highly vulnerable Democratic trifectas: 2 |
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Potential new trifectas
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Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details. States in bold had a new trifecta form as a result of the 2018 elections. Toss-up states are those where Democratic and Republican trifectas had similar chances of forming. States which were marked as highly vulnerable trifectas on the previous map are also indicated on this map as potential trifecta pickups for the opposing party.
Potential best-case scenarios and actual outcome
The following maps represent best-case scenarios for each party based on pre-election projections and forecasting. A party's best-case scenario can be defined as an outcome in which the party gains all potential new trifectas that lean towards that party or are rated toss-up, as well as retaining all current trifectas and gaining the opposing party's highly vulnerable trifectas. Additionally, under a party's best-case scenario, the opposing party loses all its somewhat and moderately vulnerable trifectas.
| Percent of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2018 election for Democrats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | |
| States | 50 | 25 | 13 | 12 |
| Population | 325,025,206[2] | 199,333,546 | 69,500,190 | 56,191,470 |
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 61.3% | 21.4% | 17.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | ||||
| Percent of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2018 election for Republicans | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | |
| States | 50 | 3 | 37 | 10 |
| Population | 325,025,206[3] | 49,969,835 | 219,212,316 | 55,843,055 |
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 15.4% | 66.2% | 18.5% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | ||||
| Percent of Americans living under trifectas following the 2018 elections | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||
| Population | 325,025,206[4] | 111,808,708 | 136,066,930 | 77,149,568 | |
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 34.4% | 41.9% | 23.7% | |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||
State government trifectas in 2018
There were trifectas or variations of them in 34 of the 50 states.
- 26
Republican - 8
Democratic[5]
Method
Assessing trifecta vulnerability
Ballotpedia rates trifectas as not vulnerable, somewhat vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and highly vulnerable. We individually assess the likelihood that each component of a trifecta—control of the governorship, the upper chamber of the state Legislature, and the lower chamber of the state Legislature—changes party hands.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the majority party or is likely to be won by the majority party.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans or tilts towards the majority party.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the minority party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
Overall assessment
The sum of the three individual ratings is used to determine the state's overall rating:
| 5-6 | Highly vulnerable |
| 3-4 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1-2 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states where there is no gubernatorial election in 2018, the sum of the two remaining ratings is used instead:
| 3-4 | Highly vulnerable |
| 2 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
Assessing potential new trifectas
To determine the possibility of a particular party forming a trifecta in a state where one does not exist, we consider the likelihood of that party taking control of each individual trifecta component it currently lacks.
For instance, heading into the 2018 election, the Republican Party controls the governorship in Illinois while the Democratic Party controls majorities in both houses of the state Legislature. Therefore, projections on the outcome of the gubernatorial election indicate the likelihood of a Democratic trifecta forming, while projections on the outcome of the legislative elections indicate the likelihood of a Republican trifecta forming.
In the event that a Democratic and Republican trifecta are equally likely to form, the state is considered a toss-up potential trifecta.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the incumbent's party or is likely to be won by the incumbent's party.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the incumbent's party.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the challenger's party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
To assess the overall likelihood of a trifecta forming, the scores of the individual components are added together. If the party lacks two trifecta components, the two ratings are totaled as follows:
| 3-4 | Moderate possibility |
| 1-2 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
If the party lacks only one trifecta component, a rating is determined as follows:
| 2 | Moderate possibility |
| 1 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
See also
- Gubernatorial and legislative party control of state government
- Historical and potential changes in trifectas
- Who Runs the States Project
- State legislative elections, 2018
- State legislative elections, 2017
- State legislative elections, 2016
- State legislative elections, 2015
- State legislative elections, 2014
- State legislative elections, 2013
- State legislative elections, 2012
- State legislative elections, 2010
- Gubernatorial elections, 2018
- Gubernatorial elections, 2017
- Gubernatorial elections, 2016
- Gubernatorial elections, 2015
- Gubernatorial elections, 2014
- Gubernatorial elections, 2013
- Gubernatorial elections, 2012
- Gubernatorial elections, 2010
Footnotes
- ↑ Ballotpedia reserves the right to modify individual state's ratings based on its editorial judgment. The ratings for Ohio, Rhode Island, and Washington were adjusted based on editorial judgment.
- ↑ Excludes the 693,972 inhabitants of Washington, D.C.
- ↑ Excludes the 693,972 inhabitants of Washington, D.C.
- ↑ Excludes the 693,972 inhabitants of Washington, D.C.
- ↑ Includes Connecticut where Democrats controlled the Senate through tie-breaking votes.
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