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Trifecta vulnerability in the 2024 elections
According to Ballotpedia's annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, eleven state government trifectas were vulnerable in the 2024 elections. Democrats were defending seven vulnerable trifectas and Republicans were defending four. On this page, we assessed the likelihood of each existing state government trifecta breaking and of new state government trifectas forming in 2024.
Ballotpedia calculated the chances of trifectas breaking and forming by evaluating each trifecta component individually and assessing the chances of them changing control. This assessment considers:
- The race ratings for the gubernatorial election.
- The percentage of seats up for election required to flip control of the upper chamber.
- The percentage of seats up for election required to flip control of the lower chamber.
Click here for more on how these ratings were calculated.
The Democratic trifecta in Oregon was highly vulnerable. Oregon did not hold a gubernatorial election in 2024, but Democrats had a 17-12-1 seat majority in the state Senate and a 35-24-1 seat majority in the state House. Republicans needed to gain four seats to win a majority in the upper chamber and seven seats to win a majority in the lower chamber.
Democratic trifectas in Maine, Michigan, and Minnesota were moderately vulnerable. Democratic trifectas in Connecticut, Delaware, and Washington were considered somewhat vulnerable.
New Hampshire and Texas were highly vulnerable Republican trifectas in 2024. The New Hampshire governor's race was rated as a Toss-up, and Democrats needed to flip three seats to win the state Senate and seven seats to win the state House. There was no gubernatorial election in Texas in 2024. However, Democrats needed to flip four seats to win the state Senate and 12 seats to win the state House. The Republican trifecta in Georgia was classified as moderately vulnerable, and the Republican trifecta in Iowa was rated somewhat vulnerable.
Ballotpedia also assessed the chances of new trifectas forming in states that were currently under divided government. Possible Democratic trifecta pickups were Arizona, Kansas, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while possible Republican pickups were Alaska and Nevada. In North Carolina and Vermont, either party could have established a state government trifecta.
A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. At the time of the 2024 elections, there were 40 state government trifectas: 23 Republican trifectas and 17 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 10 states had a divided government where neither party had a trifecta.
Eleven states held gubernatorial elections in 2024 and 85 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers held elections. Trifecta status was at stake in 44 states. Elections for one or more trifecta offices took place in:
- 20 of the 23 states with Republican trifectas,
- 15 of the 17 states with Democratic trifectas, and
- 9 of the 10 states with divided government.
Changes in a state government's policy priorities often follow changes in trifecta status, as trifecta control affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or in some cases, maintaining divided government—thus often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle. "Few ever pay attention to [gubernatorial and state legislative] races, but they’re important for [redistricting] and waves can be leveraged for major gains," said NBC News reporter Alex Seitz-Wald.[1]
Heading into the 2024 elections, Louisiana was the most recent state to become a trifecta, when Republicans won the governorship in 2023. The 2022 elections resulted in Republicans losing a trifecta in Arizona, where Democrats won the governorship. Democrats gained four trifectas in 2022—Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota—and lost one trifecta in Nevada. Between 2010 and 2023, 80 state government trifectas were broken or gained.
For more on current state government trifectas, click here.
The 2023 and 2022 versions of this analysis can be found here and here.
Vulnerable state government trifectas
| Democratic Party Current status: 17 trifectas Not vulnerable: 10 Somewhat vulnerable: 3 Moderately vulnerable: 3 Highly vulnerable: 1 |
Republican Party Current status: 23 trifectas Not vulnerable: 19 Somewhat vulnerable: 1 Moderately vulnerable: 1 Highly vulnerable: 2 |
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Vulnerable trifectas
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Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details.
Potential new trifectas
| Predicted Democratic pickups Moderate possibility: 2 Slight possibility: 1 Low possibility: 2 |
Toss-ups 2 |
Predicted Republican pickups Significant possibility: 1 Slight possibility: 1 |
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Potential new trifectas
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details. Toss-up states are those where Democratic and Republican trifectas both have a good chance of forming.
Potential best-case scenarios
The following maps represent best-case scenarios for each party based on pre-election projections and forecasting. We define a party's best-case scenario as an outcome in which the party gains all potential new trifectas that are rated towards that party or as a toss-up, as well as retaining all of their current trifectas. Additionally, under a party's best-case scenario, the opposing party loses all of its somewhat and moderately vulnerable trifectas.
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2024 election for Democrats | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 25 | 19 | 6 | |||||
| Population | 328,771,307[2] | 182,974,083 | 90,102,907 | 55,694,317 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 55.7% | 27.4% | 16.9% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2024 election for Republicans | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 10 | 28 | 12 | |||||
| Population | 328,771,307[3] | 103,502,300 | 157,490,718 | 67,778,289 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 31.5% | 47.9% | 20.6% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
Trifecta status
At the time of the 2024 elections, there were trifectas in 40 of the 50 states.
- 23
Republican - 17
Democratic
| Percent of Americans living under trifectas as of January 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | |
| Population | 328,771,307[4] | 136,955,272 | 134,703,519 | 57,112,516 |
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 41.7% | 41.0% | 17.4% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | ||||
Methodology
Assessing trifecta vulnerability
Ballotpedia rates trifectas as not vulnerable, somewhat vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and highly vulnerable. We individually assess the likelihood that each component of a trifecta—control of the governorship, the upper chamber of the state Legislature, and the lower chamber of the state Legislature—changes party hands.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the majority party or is likely to be won by the majority party.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the majority party.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the minority party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
Overall assessment
The sum of the three individual ratings is used to determine the state's overall rating:
| 5-6 | Highly vulnerable |
| 3-4 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1-2 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which held elections for only two trifecta components in 2024, the sum of the two remaining ratings is used instead:
| 3-4 | Highly vulnerable |
| 2 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which held elections for only one trifecta component in 2024, vulnerability was calculated as follows:
| 2 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
Assessing potential new trifectas
To determine the possibility of a particular party forming a trifecta in a state where one does not exist, we consider the likelihood of that party taking control of each individual trifecta component it currently lacks.
For instance, at the time of the 2024 elections, the Democratic Party controlled the governorship in North Carolina while the Republican Party controlled majorities in both houses of the North Carolina State Legislature. Therefore, projections on the outcome of the gubernatorial election indicated the likelihood of a Republican trifecta forming, while projections on the outcome of the legislative elections indicated the likelihood of a Democratic trifecta forming.
In the event that a Democratic and Republican trifecta both have a good chance of forming, the state is considered a toss-up potential trifecta.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the incumbent's party or is likely to be won by the incumbent's party.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the incumbent's party.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the challenger's party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
To assess the overall likelihood of a trifecta forming, the scores of the individual components are added together. If the party lacks two trifecta components, the two ratings are totaled as follows:
| 3-4 | Moderate possibility |
| 1-2 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
If the party lacks only one trifecta component, a rating is determined as follows:
| 2 | Moderate possibility |
| 1 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
See also
- State government trifectas
- Historical and potential changes in trifectas
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2023 elections
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2022 elections
Footnotes
- ↑ Twitter, "Alex Seitz-Wald," November 7, 2018
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed July 15, 2024
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed July 15, 2024
- ↑ Excludes the 712,816 inhabitants of Washington, D.C.
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