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Margin of victory analysis for the 2024 state legislative elections
On November 5, 2024, 85 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections for 5,807 seats, meaning that 79.0% of all state legislative seats were up for election.
Two state legislative chambers, the Michigan and Minnesota state Houses, changed party control following the 2024 general election. Republicans won control of the Michigan House from Democrats, and won a tie in the Minnesota House. Democrats lost trifecta control in both states, resulting in divided governments.
Across all 5,807 seats up for election, the average margin of victory was 27.3%. An electoral margin of victory (MOV) is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the second-place candidate in an election. Only races with more than one candidate were included in this average.
On this page, you will find an overview of average margins of victory by chamber, a detailed breakdown of each legislative chamber's margins of victory, and a closer look at the races decided by margins of 0.5% or smaller.
To learn more about margins of victory in the previous even-year state legislative elections (2022), click here. That year, across the 6,278 seats up for election, the average margin of victory was 27.7%. Major-party candidates won 875 seats by margins of 10% or less—471 of those seats were won by Democrats and 404 by Republicans.
Margin of victory
The margin of victory is the difference between the vote share received by a winning candidate and the runner-up. For example, if Candidate A wins an election with 55 percent of the vote and Candidate B, the second-place finisher, wins 45 percent of the vote, the winner's margin of victory is 10 percent. In chambers with multimember districts, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the winning candidate with the fewest votes and the losing candidate with the most votes. Margins of victory can be used to measure electoral competitiveness, political party or candidate strength, and, indirectly, the popularity of a particular policy or set of policies.
Upper chamber average margins of victory
The table below shows the number of seats up for election and the average margin of victory in each state legislative upper chamber.
Lower chamber average margins of victory
The table below shows the number of seats up for election and the average margin of victory in each state legislative lower chamber.
Election results by chamber
The chart below displays the breakdown of races by the winner's partisan affiliation and margin of victory for each state legislative chamber with single-member districts which held elections in 2024. A darker shade of red or blue indicates a larger margin for that party.
The table below displays how many seats were up for election in each chamber and how many seats each party won. It also includes a breakdown of how many seats Democrats and Republicans won by 10% or less and without opposition in each chamber, as well as the average margin of victory for each party. Click on a particular header to sort the table.
| Average MOV for state legislative elections, 2024 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamber | Seats up for election |  Seats won by Democrats
|
Seats won by Democrats by margins of 10% or less
|
Seats won by unopposed Democrats
|
Average margin of victory for Democrats
|
 Seats won by Republicans
|
Seats won by Republicans by margins of 10% or less
|
Seats won by unopposed Republicans
|
Average margin of victory for Republicans
|
 Seats won by independent and minor party candidates
|
| Alaska House of Representatives | 40 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 13.9% | 21 | 7 | 5 | 15.1% | 5 |
| Alaska State Senate | 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.7% | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11.6% | 0 |
| Arizona House of Representatives | 60 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 10.9% | 17 | 7 | 0 | 10.3% | 0 |
| Arizona State Senate | 30 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 25.9% | 17 | 4 | 3 | 25.0% | 0 |
| Arkansas House of Representatives | 100 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 16.4% | 81 | 3 | 33 | 38.3% | 0 |
| Arkansas State Senate | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9 | 42.9% | 0 | |
| California State Assembly | 80 | 60 | 5 | 1 | 26.4% | 20 | 6 | 0 | 16.1% | 0 |
| California State Senate | 20 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 22.3% | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16.2% | 0 |
| Colorado House of Representatives | 65 | 43 | 9 | 3 | 30.2% | 22 | 5 | 4 | 19.1% | 0 |
| Colorado State Senate | 18 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 34.6% | 6 | 1 | 0 | 27.0% | 0 |
| Connecticut House of Representatives | 151 | 102 | 14 | 28 | 28.2% | 49 | 15 | 12 | 14.8% | 0 |
| Connecticut State Senate | 36 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 25.7% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 10.5% | 0 |
| Delaware House of Representatives | 41 | 27 | 2 | 12 | 21.3% | 14 | 2 | 8 | 16.0% | 0 |
| Delaware State Senate | 10 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 47.3% | 3 | 0 | 2 | 97.8% | 0 |
| Florida House of Representatives | 120 | 35 | 8 | 15 | 27.0% | 85 | 10 | 0 | 26.2% | 0 |
| Florida State Senate | 20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 32.7% | 14 | 0 | 0 | 27.8% | 0 |
| Georgia House of Representatives | 180 | 80 | 4 | 43 | 31.3% | 100 | 4 | 47 | 33.8% | 0 |
| Georgia State Senate | 56 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 44.5% | 33 | 1 | 18 | 35.5% | 0 |
| Hawaii House of Representatives | 51 | 42 | 0 | 14 | 36.9% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 11.5% | 0 |
| Hawaii State Senate | 12 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 38.8% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7.2% | 0 |
| Idaho House of Representatives | 70 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 17.5% | 61 | 3 | 14 | 46.1% | 0 |
| Idaho State Senate | 35 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14.7% | 29 | 2 | 5 | 50.7% | 0 |
| Illinois House of Representatives | 118 | 78 | 8 | 34 | 31.1% | 40 | 6 | 23 | 17.9% | 0 |
| Illinois State Senate | 20 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 21.3% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Indiana House of Representatives | 100 | 30 | 4 | 12 | 28.4% | 70 | 4 | 24 | 36.4% | 0 |
| Indiana State Senate | 25 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 44.4% | 18 | 0 | 8 | 36.2% | 0 |
| Iowa House of Representatives | 100 | 33 | 6 | 15 | 24.4% | 67 | 8 | 13 | 26.9% | 0 |
| Iowa State Senate | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11.0% | 19 | 2 | 3 | 27.6% | 0 |
| Kansas House of Representatives | 125 | 37 | 5 | 18 | 21.3% | 88 | 11 | 32 | 26.4% | 0 |
| Kansas State Senate | 40 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 31.0% | 31 | 6 | 5 | 28.7% | 0 |
| Kentucky House of Representatives | 100 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 16.3% | 80 | 3 | 43 | 34.3% | 0 |
| Kentucky State Senate | 19 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18.5% | 13 | 0 | 7 | 42.3% | 1 |
| Maine House of Representatives | 151 | 76 | 15 | 16 | 23.5% | 73 | 15 | 12 | 21.2% | 2 |
| Maine State Senate | 35 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 21.5% | 15 | 3 | 0 | 24.2% | 0 |
| Massachusetts House of Representatives | 160 | 134 | 8 | 103 | 29.4% | 25 | 3 | 13 | 23.7% | 1 |
| Massachusetts State Senate | 40 | 35 | 1 | 26 | 28.2% | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.0% | 0 |
| Michigan House of Representatives | 110 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 28.2% | 58 | 10 | 0 | 27.2% | 0 |
| Minnesota House of Representatives | 134 | 67 | 11 | 5 | 31.5% | 67 | 10 | 0 | 29.7% | 0 |
| Missouri House of Representatives | 163 | 52 | 11 | 18 | 35.0% | 111 | 8 | 28 | 41.6% | 0 |
| Missouri State Senate | 17 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 33.1% | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34.4% | 0 |
| Montana House of Representatives | 100 | 42 | 16 | 0 | 16.5% | 58 | 2 | 12 | 40.1% | 0 |
| Montana State Senate | 25 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18.4% | 16 | 1 | 4 | 35.7% | 0 |
| Nebraska State Senate | 25 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 13.1% | 16 | 11 | 0 | 12.9% | 1 |
| Nevada State Assembly | 42 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 13.1% | 15 | 0 | 4 | 28.2% | 0 |
| Nevada State Senate | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11.4% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8.4% | 0 |
| New Hampshire House of Representatives | 400 | 100 | 52 | 18 | 11.4% | 103 | 70 | 8 | 7.6% | 0 |
| New Hampshire State Senate | 24 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 22.0% | 16 | 3 | 0 | 14.4% | 0 |
| New Mexico House of Representatives | 70 | 44 | 8 | 22 | 17.2% | 26 | 4 | 16 | 18.1% | 0 |
| New Mexico State Senate | 42 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 12.1% | 16 | 3 | 9 | 17.3% | 0 |
| New York State Assembly | 150 | 101 | 11 | 40 | 31.6% | 49 | 5 | 18 | 23.0% | 0 |
| New York State Senate | 63 | 40 | 4 | 11 | 32.4% | 23 | 4 | 8 | 17.7% | 0 |
| North Carolina House of Representatives | 120 | 49 | 6 | 21 | 30.8% | 71 | 10 | 3 | 26.9% | 0 |
| North Carolina State Senate | 50 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 32.4% | 30 | 3 | 0 | 26.4% | 0 |
| North Dakota House of Representatives | 46 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 27.6% | 22 | 6 | 9 | 15.2% | 0 |
| North Dakota State Senate | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.8% | 21 | 2 | 8 | 38.8% | 0 |
| Ohio House of Representatives | 99 | 34 | 5 | 6 | 34.0% | 65 | 6 | 6 | 32.0% | 0 |
| Ohio State Senate | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12.0% | 13 | 2 | 1 | 28.4% | 0 |
| Oklahoma House of Representatives | 101 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 19.5% | 81 | 3 | 58 | 38.5% | 0 |
| Oklahoma State Senate | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18.4% | 22 | 1 | 12 | 35.0% | 0 |
| Oregon House of Representatives | 60 | 31 | 6 | 7 | 30.4% | 29 | 3 | 9 | 29.1% | 0 |
| Oregon State Senate | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 41.3% | 9 | 1 | 2 | 36.0% | 0 |
| Pennsylvania House of Representatives | 203 | 101 | 9 | 48 | 19.0% | 102 | 4 | 44 | 31.2% | 0 |
| Pennsylvania State Senate | 25 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 17.0% | 15 | 3 | 4 | 26.6% | 0 |
| Rhode Island House of Representatives | 75 | 64 | 5 | 46 | 15.6% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 19.8% | 1 |
| Rhode Island State Senate | 38 | 34 | 1 | 21 | 21.5% | 4 | 0 | 1 | 24.1% | 0 |
| South Carolina House of Representatives | 124 | 36 | 6 | 20 | 25.2% | 88 | 4 | 50 | 32.0% | 0 |
| South Carolina State Senate | 46 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 26.0% | 34 | 4 | 14 | 28.5% | 0 |
| South Dakota House of Representatives | 70 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8.7% | 34 | 7 | 14 | 14.0% | 0 |
| South Dakota State Senate | 35 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4.4% | 32 | 1 | 17 | 30.9% | 0 |
| Tennessee House of Representatives | 99 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 39.0% | 75 | 3 | 20 | 44.9% | 0 |
| Tennessee State Senate | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 36.8% | 14 | 0 | 3 | 46.1% | 0 |
| Texas House of Representatives | 150 | 62 | 6 | 36 | 25.9% | 88 | 3 | 18 | 35.5% | 0 |
| Texas State Senate | 15 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 26.0% | 8 | 1 | 0 | 23.3% | 0 |
| Utah House of Representatives | 75 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 29.8% | 61 | 4 | 19 | 38.4% | 0 |
| Utah State Senate | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13.9% | 12 | 0 | 3 | 33.0% | 0 |
| Vermont House of Representatives | 150 | 64 | 22 | 28 | 13.3% | 43 | 11 | 19 | 12.8% | 2 |
| Vermont State Senate | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6.3% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 12.7% | 0 |
| Washington House of Representatives | 98 | 59 | 5 | 12 | 33.3% | 39 | 4 | 7 | 24.6% | 0 |
| Washington State Senate | 25 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 25.1% | 12 | 3 | 2 | 16.3% | 0 |
| West Virginia House of Delegates | 100 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 20.8% | 91 | 4 | 40 | 37.1% | 0 |
| West Virginia State Senate | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8.8% | 16 | 1 | 6 | 45.1% | 0 |
| Wisconsin State Assembly | 99 | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15.6% | 54 | 8 | 2 | 27.2% | 0 |
| Wisconsin State Senate | 16 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4.0% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28.8% | 0 |
| Wyoming House of Representatives | 62 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12.9% | 56 | 2 | 45 | 43.2% | 0 |
| Wyoming State Senate | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 12 | 28.7% | 0 | |
| Totals | 5,807 | 2,421 | 409 | 894 | 25.1% | 3,036 | 394 | 914 | 28.9% | 13 |
State legislative races decided by 10% or less
In 2024, there were 810 races decided by margins of 10% or less. The map below shows the percentage of races in each state decided by margins of 10% or less.
State legislative races decided by 0.5% or less
In 2024, there were 47 races decided by margins of 0.5% or smaller.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2024
- State legislative special elections, 2024
- Trends in the margins of victory for incumbents of three or more terms, 2018-2024
Footnotes
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