Incumbents who won primaries by five percentage points or fewer or with a plurality, 2024
Updated December 4, 2024
In 2024, 105 incumbents won primary elections decided by a margin-of-victory (MOV) of five percentage points or fewer. An electoral margin of victory is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the second-place candidate in an election. For example, if Candidate A wins an election with 55 percent of the vote and Candidate B, the second-place finisher, wins 45 percent of the vote, the winner's margin of victory is 10 percent.
Primaries elections decided by five percentage points or fewer in which the incumbent won include:
- Four races for U.S. House
- One state executive race.
- Eighty state legislative races.
- Four state judicial races.
- Sixteen local races in our coverage scope.
Of all primaries decided by five percentage points or fewer in which the incumbent won, 19 were Democratic primaries, 75 were Republican primaries, and nine were nonpartisan. For state and federal races, New Hampshire had the highest number of these primaries (24).
Ninety-seven (92%) of these incumbents won in the general election, a smaller percentage than the 95% of incumbents who were re-elected nationwide. Of these, 11 incumbents were unopposed in the general election. The average margin of victory for winning incumbents was approximately 23 points. The smallest general election margin of victory for winning incumbents was 0.4 points. Eight incumbents did not win re-election.
Seventy-three (97%) of the 75 Republican incumbents and 16 (84%) of the 19 Democratic incumbents who won their primaries by five percentage points or fewer won re-election. Eight incumbents were nonpartisan, and six (75%) won re-election.
Three hundred twenty-three incumbents won primary elections with a plurality, which occurs when one candidate receives more votes than any other candidate but does not receive more than half of the total number of votes.
Primaries in which the incumbent won with less than 50% of the vote include:
- Thirteen races for U.S. House.
- Nine state executive races.
- Two hundred fifteen state legislative races.
- Four state judicial races.
- Eighty-two local races in our coverage scope.
Of the primaries won with a plurality, 79 were Democratic primaries, 159 were Republican primaries, and 84 were nonpartisan primaries. For state and federal races, New Hampshire had the highest number of these primaries (74).
Two hundred seventy-nine (86%) of these incumbents won in the general election, a smaller percentage than the 95% of incumbents who were re-elected nationwide. Of these, 29 incumbents were unopposed in the general election. The average margin of victory for winning incumbents was approximately 17 points. The smallest general election margin of victory for winning incumbents was eight votes. Twenty-nine incumbents did not win re-election.
One hundred sixty-one (95%) of the 170 Republican incumbents and 80 (90%) of the 89 Democratic incumbents who won primaries with a plurality won re-election. Sixty-four incumbents were nonpartisan, and 38 (59%) won re-election.
Primaries decided by five percentage points or fewer
Congressional elections
Four incumbents in the U.S. House won primary elections decided by five percentage points or fewer:
- Three ran in Republican Party primaries
- One ran in a nonpartisan primary
Four Republican incumbents won re-election in the general election.
State executive elections
One state executive incumbent won a Republican primary election decided by five percentage points or fewer and went on to win re-election in the general election.
State legislative elections
Eighty state legislative incumbents won primaries decided by five percentage points:
- Fifteen ran in Democratic primaries
- Sixty-five ran in Republican primaries
Seventy-eight of these incumbents won re-election:
- Fourteen were Democrats
- Sixty-four were Republicans
Two incumbents did not win re-election:
- Frederick Frazier (R)
- Andrew Julow (D)
State judicial elections
Four state judicial incumbents won primaries decided by five percentage points:
- Two ran in Democratic primaries
- One ran in a Republican primary
- One ran in a nonpartisan primary
Two of these incumbents won re-election:
- One was a Republican
- One was nonpartisan
Two incumbents did not win re-election:
- Edward Smith (D)
- Jerry Zimmerer (D)
Local elections
Sixteen local incumbents won in primaries decided by five percentage points:
- Four won in Democratic primaries
- Five won in Republican primaries
- Seven won in nonpartisan primaries
Thirteen of these incumbents won re-election:
- Four were Democrats
- Four were Republicans
- Five were nonpartisan
Three incumbents did not win re-election:
- Tom Durham (nonpartisan)
- David Plyler (R)
- Kevin de León (nonpartisan)
Primaries won with less than 50% of the vote
Congressional elections
Thirteen U.S. House incumbents won primaries with less than 50% of the vote:
- One won in a Democratic primary
- Three won in Republican primaries
- Nine won in nonpartisan primaries
Thirteen of these incumbents won re-election:
- Six were Democrats
- Seven were Republicans
State executive elections
Nine state executive incumbents won primaries with less than 50% of the vote:
- Three won in Republican primaries
- Six won in nonpartisan primaries
Nine of these incumbents won re-election:
- Three were Republicans
- Six were nonpartisan
State legislative elections
Two hundred fifteen state legislative incumbents won primaries with less than 50% of the vote:
- Sixty-four won in Democratic primaries
- One hundred forty-eight won in Republican primaries
- Three won in nonpartisan primaries
Two hundred one of these incumbents won re-election:
- Fifty-nine were Democrats
- One hundred forty were Republicans
- Two were nonpartisan
Fourteen incumbents did not win re-election:
- Daniel Fitzpatrick (D)
- Christopher Bray (D)
- Hal Rafter (D)
- Tom Keen (D)
- Blake Cowboy Stephens (R)
- DeWayne Burns (R)
- Kevin Wallace (R)
- Dean Davis (R)
- Jen Day (nonpartisan)
- Lynn Stucky (R)
- Shawn Thierry (D)
- John Kuempel (R)
- Stephanie Klick (R)
- Cory McGarr (R)
State judicial elections
Four incumbents won primaries with less than 50% of the vote:
- Three won in Democratic primaries
- One won in a nonpartisan primary
One Democratic incumbent won re-election.
Three incumbents did not win re-election:
- Edward Smith (D)
- Jerry Zimmerer (D)
- Jeff Ashton (nonpartisan)
Local elections
Eighty-two local incumbents won primaries with less than 50% of the vote:
- Sixteen won in Democratic primaries
- Twelve won in Republican primaries
- Fifty-four won in nonpartisan primaries
Fifty-five of these incumbents won re-election:
- Fourteen were Democrats
- Eleven was a Republican
- Thirty were nonpartisan
Twenty-one incumbents did not win re-election:
- Tom Durham (nonpartisan)
- Tammy Caputi (nonpartisan)
- David Plyler (R)
- OD Harris (nonpartisan)
- George Gascón (nonpartisan)
- Shebra Evans (nonpartisan)
- Zipporah Miller (nonpartisan)
- Lynne Harris (nonpartisan)
- Spencer Head (nonpartisan)
- Scott Ramsey (nonpartisan)
- Valencia Moore (D)
- Tanya Woo (nonpartisan)
- Tayna Fogle (nonpartisan)
- Carl Persis (nonpartisan)
- David Ortega (nonpartisan)
- Nabil Shike (D)
- Brenda Monarrez (nonpartisan)
- Kevin de León (nonpartisan)
- Steve Brandau (nonpartisan)
- Evelyn Garcia Morales (nonpartisan)
- Kimberly Warmsley (nonpartisan)
- Arjun Batra (nonpartisan)
- Sal Quintero (nonpartisan)
- Tim Fennessy (nonpartisan)
- Kenneth Harris II (nonpartisan)
- Dan Shaw (nonpartisan)
- Joseph Sciscento (nonpartisan)
See also
- State legislative elections, 2024
- State legislative special elections, 2024
- Trends in the margins of victory for incumbents of three or more terms, 2018-2024
