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Annual State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2024
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Ballotpedia's 2024 study of competitiveness in state executive official elections found that 45.1% of incumbents (74 incumbents across 164 seats) did not seek re-election, leaving those seats open. That was above the average rate of open state executive seats from 2011-2023 (35.7%).
Our study also found that 44.1% of primaries were contested, meaning more than one candidate ran. That is higher than the average rate of contested primaries in even years from 2014-2024 (43.5%).
Key sections of analysis on this page include:
- Incumbents not seeking re-election
- Incumbents facing challengers
- Races without major party competition
Of the various types of executive offices, only seven exist in all 50 states: governor, attorney general, superintendent of schools, insurance commissioner, agriculture commissioner, labor commissioner, and public service commissioner.
Other state executive offices include lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, controller, auditor, public lands commissioner, tax commissioner, railroad commissioner, public education commissioner, mine inspector, executive council, state board of equalization, state board of education, and state board of regents.
Defining competitiveness
An election is considered more competitive when there is no incumbent running for re-election. This analysis examines both the degree of competitiveness, relative to past election years, and factors that may have contributed to the degree of competitiveness in the current year.
Incumbent advantage is frequently cited in political theory and its importance frequently debated. For example, data compiled by OpenSecrets.org shows the re-election rate for incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives has been 85% or higher for each of the 28 two-year election cycles between 1964 and 2020. From 2010-2020, the re-election rate averaged 92.2%.
Incumbents not seeking re-election, 2014-2024
There were 74 open state executive office elections in 2024 without an incumbent on the general election ballot. As a percentage of all offices on the ballot, 45.1% of incumbents did not seek re-election. This was higher than the average for open offices from 2011-2023 (35.7%).
Click [Show] on the table below to view number totals:
| Open offices v. incumbents seeking re-election, 2010-2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offices up for election | Open offices | % Open offices | Incumbents seeking re-election | % Incumbents seeking re-election | |||
| 2024 | 164 | 75 | 45.7% | 89 | 54.3% | ||
| 2023 | 36 | 17 | 47.2% | 19 | 52.8% | ||
| 2022 | 305 | 96 | 31.5% | 209 | 68.5% | ||
| 2021* | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 3 | 42.9% | ||
| 2020 | 166 | 60 | 36.1% | 106 | 63.9% | ||
| 2019 | 36 | 15 | 41.7% | 21 | 58.3% | ||
| 2018 | 298 | 114 | 38.3% | 184 | 61.7% | ||
| 2017* | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 3 | 37.5% | ||
| 2016 | 93 | 42 | 45.2% | 51 | 54.8% | ||
| 2015 | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 16 | 64.0% | ||
| 2014 | 226 | 74 | 32.7% | 152 | 67.3% | ||
| 2013* | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 3 | 50.0% | ||
| 2012 | 94 | 27 | 28.7% | 67 | 71.3% | ||
| 2011 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 19 | 73.1% | ||
| Total | 1,326 | 473 | 35.7% | 853 | 64.3% | ||
*These results were not considered statistically significant due to small sample size.
Effect of term limits on competitiveness
Of the 74 open state executive seats in 2024, 14 of them (8.5% of the 164 total seats up for election) occurred because term limits prevented the incumbent from running again. This lowest percentage since Ballotpedia began tracking this data in 2011.
Incumbents facing challengers
Incumbents in contested primaries
In 2024, 90 incumbents sought re-election, 39 (43.3%) ran in contested primaries.[1]
Incumbents defeated in primaries
Six incumbents out of 90 who ran (6.7%) were defeated in primaries in 2024. Those incumbents were:
Incumbents contested in general elections
Sixty-six incumbents out of 90 incumbents (73.3%) were contested in general elections. Those incumbents were:
Terms and definitions
Use the links below to view terms, definitions, and methodologies specific to the three competitiveness criteria:
See also
- Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024
- Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 14, 2024
Footnotes
- ↑ The remaining incumbents either advanced directly to the general election without a primary being held or were lieutenant gubernatorial candidates directly selected by gubernatorial candidates.
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