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Trifecta vulnerability in the 2021 elections

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State government trifectas
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Current trifecta status
Historical and potential changes in trifectas
Trifecta vulnerability in the 2020 elections
Trifecta vulnerability in the 2019 elections
Trifecta vulnerability in the 2018 elections

The 2021 elections resulted in Democrats losing their state government trifecta in Virginia and holding their trifecta in New Jersey. New Jersey and Virginia were the only states holding elections in 2021 where state government trifecta status could be affected as a result of the elections. Both states held gubernatorial and state legislative elections. A trifecta exists when one party holds the governorship, a majority in the state senate, and a majority in the state house.

At the time of the 2021 elections, Democrats had trifectas in both states holding elections that year—New Jersey and Virginia. On this page, we assessed the likelihood of each existing state government trifecta breaking as a result of the 2021 elections.

Ballotpedia uses race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections to calculate its gubernatorial race ratings. Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Click here for more on how these ratings were calculated.

Changes in a state government's policy priorities often follow changes in trifecta status, as trifecta control affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or in some cases, maintaining divided government—thus often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle. "Few ever pay attention to [gubernatorial and state legislative] races, but they’re important for [redistricting] and waves can be leveraged for major gains," according to NBC News reporter Alex Seitz-Wald.[1]

Between 2010 and 2021, there were 291 state elections where trifecta status could be affected because one or more trifecta components were on the ballot. Trifecta status changed in 70 (24%) of those elections. During the same period, there were three other changes in trifecta status, all caused by governors switching their party affiliation.

For more on current state government trifectas, click here.

State breakdown

New Jersey

See also: New Jersey elections, 2021

Entering the 2021 elections, New Jersey was a Democratic trifecta, and had been since the start of the 2018 legislative session. New Jersey scheduled elections for governor, all 40 state Senate seats, and all 80 state Assembly seats in 2021. In order to win a trifecta, Republicans needed to win majorities in the state legislature and win the gubernatorial election. To maintain the Democratic trifecta in the state, Democrats needed to keep majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and hold the governorship.

Election forecasters rate the governor's race Solid Democratic. Republicans needed to either win that election, flip six out of 40 state Senate seats (15%), or flip 13 out of 80 state Assembly seats (16.25%) in order to break the Democratic trifecta. Ballotpedia assessed New Jersey's Democratic trifecta as not vulnerable.


Governor

See also: New Jersey gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2021

Phil Murphy (D) defeated Jack Ciattarelli (R), Madelyn Hoffman (G), Gregg Mele (L), and Joanne Kuniansky (Socialist Workers Party) in the election for governor of New Jersey. Murphy received 51.2 percent of the vote and Ciattarelli received 48.0 percent of the vote.

This election (alongside the 2021 legislative elections) helped determine New Jersey's trifecta status for the next two years. Heading into the election, New Jersey was a Democratic trifecta, with Democrats holding the governor's office and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.

Between 1992 and 2021, Republicans held the governorship for 16 years and Democrats held the governorship for 14 years. Heading into the 2021 election, the last Democratic governor to win re-election was Brendan Byrne in 1977. Since then, two sitting Democratic governors, Jim Florio (1993) and Jon Corzine (2009), lost re-election to Republican challengers.

In 2017, Murphy defeated then-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno 56 percent to 42 percent. In that election, Murphy out-raised Guadagno $13.3 million to $3.9 million and out-spent her $9.8 million to $3.3 million. This cycle, based on post-general election reporting, Muprhy outraised Ciattarelli $16.3 million to $15.4 million and outspent Ciattarelli $16.4 million to $15.8 million.

Charles Stile of NorthJersey.com called the election a "race to the bottom" in a September 2021 article, citing Murphy and Ciattarelli's negative attacks targeting the other. Murphy used campaign ads and events to portray Ciattarelli as out of touch with the state's electorate and wanting to impose former President Donald Trump's (R) agenda on the state. Ciattarelli highlighted issues such as taxes and the handling of sexual abuse allegations to frame Murphy as an elected official who does not understand the needs of average New Jerseyites.[2]

In New Jersey, gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial candidates run together on joint tickets. The lieutenant gubernatorial candidates were Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver (D), former state Sen. Diane Allen (R), Heather Warburton (G), Eveline H. Brownstein (L), and Vivian Sahner (Socialist Workers Party). The office was created as the result of a constitutional amendment to the New Jersey State Constitution passed by the voters on November 8, 2005, and effective as of January 17, 2006. The New Jersey Constitution requires that the governor appoint the lieutenant governor to head at least one principal department or agency, though that position may not be the attorney general's office.[3]

At the time of the election, two of the three major race rating outlets rated the general election as Solid Democratic and the third rated it as Likely Democratic.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[4]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[5][6][7]

Race ratings: New Jersey gubernatorial election, 2021
Race trackerRace ratings
November 1, 2021October 26, 2021October 19, 2021October 12, 2021
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

State Senate

See also: New Jersey State Senate elections, 2021

Elections for the New Jersey State Senate took place in 2021. The primary was on June 8, 2021, and the general election was on November 2. The filing deadline for candidates was April 5, 2021.[8]

The New Jersey State Senate was one of three state legislative chambers with elections in 2021. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.

Past elections

State House

See also: New Jersey General Assembly elections, 2021

Elections for the New Jersey General Assembly took place in 2021. The primary was on June 8, 2021, and the general election was on November 2. The filing deadline for candidates was April 5, 2021.[9]

The New Jersey General Assembly was one of three state legislative chambers with elections in 2021. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.

Past elections

Historical control

New Jersey Party Control: 1992-2025
Fourteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Eight years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R R S S D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Assembly R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


Virginia

See also: Virginia elections, 2021

Entering the 2021 election, Virginia was a Democratic trifecta, and had been since the start of the 2020 legislative session. Virginia scheduled elections for governor, and all 100 state House seats in 2021. In order to preserve their trifecta, Democrats needed to maintain their majority in the state House and retain the governorship. In order to break the Democratic trifecta, Republicans needed to win a majority in the state House or win the gubernatorial election. Because there were no regularly-scheduled state Senate elections in 2021, Republicans did not have a chance to gain a trifecta in Virginia this year.

Because election forecasters rated the gubernatorial election Leans Democratic and Republicans needed to flip six of the 100 state House seats (6%), Ballotpedia assessed Virginia's Democratic trifecta as moderately vulnerable.

Governor

See also: Virginia gubernatorial election, 2021

Glenn Youngkin (R) defeated Terry McAuliffe (D) in the general election for governor of Virginia on November 2, 2021, becoming the first Republican to win a statewide election in the state since 2009. Incumbent Gov. Ralph Northam (D) was unable to seek re-election due to term limits.[10]

The Los Angeles Times' Janet Hook called the race "the first big test of strength between parties since Biden was elected" and said it "could set the tone for the 2022 midterm election."[11] The outcome of this election, in addition to the state's House of Delegates elections, also determined Virginia's trifecta status. Virginia became a Democratic trifecta in 2019, for the first time since 1994. Youngkin's victory switched Virginia to a split government.

McAuliffe was governor of Virginia from 2014 to 2018 and chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 2001 to 2005.[12][13] He emphasized his previous term as governor, saying he "brought 200,000 good paying jobs to the Commonwealth, drove unemployment down, and raised personal income."[14] He compared Youngkin to former President Donald Trump (R), saying, "[Youngkin] is nothing more than a Trump loyalist, dead set on advancing an extreme agenda here in Virginia."[15][16][17]

Youngkin was a former co-CEO and president of The Carlyle Group, a global investment firm, where he worked from 1995 to 2020.[18] In a Candidate Connection survey submitted to Ballotpedia, Youngkin said, "We need a governor with real-world experience who can create jobs, keep businesses from leaving, put an open-for-business sign on Virginia, and create a rip-roaring economy that lifts all Virginians."[19] Read his full survey responses here. He described McAuliffe as "a recycled, 40-year political insider and career politician who pretends to be a businessman."[20]

Princess Blanding (Liberation) and Paul Davis (I) also ran in the election. Blanding appeared on the general election ballot. Davis ran as a write-in candidate.

At the time of the election, Democrats had won four of the five most recent gubernatorial elections and all thirteen statewide elections in Virginia since 2012. Joe Biden (D) won the state in the 2020 presidential election, receiving 54% of the vote to Donald Trump's (R) 44%.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[21]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[22][23][24]

Race ratings: Virginia gubernatorial election, 2021
Race trackerRace ratings
November 1, 2021October 26, 2021October 19, 2021October 12, 2021
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upTilt DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

State House

See also: Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2021

Republicans won 52 races and Democrats won 48. Republicans flipped seven seats, one more than the six needed to give them control of the chamber. Democrats would have needed to hold at least 51 seats to maintain their majority. On November 16, Alex Askew (D) in District 85 and Martha Mugler (D) in District 91 announced they would request a recount, and both filed court petitions for recounts on November 17.[25][26] Officials declared Karen Greenhalgh (R) the District 85 winner on December 3, and Aijalon Cordoza (R) the District 91 winner on December 8.[27][28] With the recounts completed, Republicans secured a 52-48 majority in the House after the 2021 election.

All 100 seats were up for election, and, heading into the election, Democrats held a 55-seat majority to Republicans' 45 seats. This was the first election cycle since 1999 with Democrats defending a majority in the House. Democrats won control in the 2019 elections after Republicans had controlled the chamber since 2000.

The outcome of these elections, in addition to the state's gubernatorial election, also determined Virginia's trifecta status. Virginia became a Democratic trifecta in 2019 for the first time since 1994. Republicans won control of the House and the governorship in 2021, ending Democrats' trifecta control of the state.

Five of the ten preceding elections in the chamber saw net shifts of six seats or more: twice in Republicans' favor and three times in Democrats'. On average, 6.6 seats shifted control per election cycle during that same time frame. During Donald Trump's (R) presidency, Republicans lost 21 net seats (21% of the chamber) in the House, the most in any state legislative chamber in the country.[29]

Ballotpedia identified 25 of the races as battlegrounds. Democrats held 19 of the battleground districts and Republicans held six. Based on analysis of these districts' electoral histories, these races had the potential to be more competitive than other races and could possibly lead to shifts in a chamber's partisan balance.

Commentators described the House of Delegates elections as a gauge of political sentiment following Joe Biden's (D) election as president in 2020.[30][29][31][32] The presidential election winner's party lost seats in the House of Delegates in five of the seven state election years following a presidential election between 1993 and 2017.

The House of Delegates was one of three state legislative chambers with elections in 2021. Redistricting in Virginia after the 2020 census will not affect this election, which will be held using districts drawn after the 2010 census.

Past elections

Historical control

Virginia Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  Four years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R
Senate D D D D S S R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R D R R R R R D D D D D D
House D D D D D D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R D D


Method

Assessing trifecta vulnerability

Ballotpedia rates trifectas as not vulnerable, somewhat vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and highly vulnerable. We individually assess the likelihood that each component of a trifecta—control of the governorship, the upper chamber of the state Legislature, and the lower chamber of the state Legislature—changes party hands.

Gubernatorial races

The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:

  • 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the majority party or is likely to be won by the majority party.
  • 1 (chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the majority party.
  • 2 (significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the minority party.

Legislative races

Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:

  • 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
  • 1 (chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
  • 2 (significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.

Overall assessment

The sum of the three individual ratings is used to determine the state's overall rating:

5-6 Highly vulnerable
3-4 Moderately vulnerable
1-2 Somewhat vulnerable
0 Not vulnerable

In states which held elections for only two trifecta components in 2021, the sum of the two remaining ratings is used instead:

3-4 Highly vulnerable
2 Moderately vulnerable
1 Somewhat vulnerable
0 Not vulnerable

In states which held elections for only one trifecta component in 2021, vulnerability was calculated as follows:

2 Moderately vulnerable
1 Somewhat vulnerable
0 Not vulnerable

Potential best-case scenarios

The following maps represent best-case scenarios for each party based on pre-election projections and forecasting. We define a party's best-case scenario as an outcome in which the party gains all potential new trifectas that are rated towards that party or as a toss-up, as well as retaining all of their current trifectas. Additionally, under a party's best-case scenario, the opposing party loses all of its somewhat and moderately vulnerable trifectas.


Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2021 election for Democrats
Total Democratic trifectas Republican trifectas Divided governments
States 50 15 23 12
Population 328,771,307[34] 120,110,821 137,479,602 71,180,884
Proportion (%) 100% 36.53% 41.82% 21.65%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2021 election for Republicans
Total Democratic trifectas Republican trifectas Divided governments
States 50 14 23 13
Population 328,771,307[35] 111,520,258 137,479,602 79,771,447
Proportion (%) 100% 33.92% 41.82% 24.26%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

State government trifectas before the election

There were trifectas in 38 of the 50 states.

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Twitter, "Alex Seitz-Wald," November 7, 2018
  2. ↑ NorthJersey.com, "'Hit him hard': The contest for NJ governor is already a race to the bottom," September 7, 2021
  3. ↑ New Jersey Legislature, "New Jersey State Constitution 1947," accessed January 19, 2021
  4. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  5. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  6. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  7. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  8. ↑ NJ.gov, "2021 Primary Election Timeline," accessed January 22, 2021
  9. ↑ NJ.gov, "2021 Primary Election Timeline," accessed January 22, 2021
  10. ↑ Virginia's constitution prevents the governor from running for a second consecutive term, although there is no lifetime term limit, meaning governors can serve non-consecutive terms.
  11. ↑ Los Angeles Times, "Trump-Biden rematch by proxy? A governor’s race is shaping up as a key post-Trump test," May 24, 2021
  12. ↑ Leaders Magazine, "Financing the Road to the White House," July 2007
  13. ↑ VoteSmart, "Terry McAuliffe," accessed April 6, 2021
  14. ↑ Terry McAuliffe's 2021 campaign website, "Meet Terry," accessed June 18, 2021
  15. ↑ Blue Virginia, "Video: Ahead of Democratic Gubernatorial Debate, Terry for Virginia Releases New Digital Ad Calling Out Extremist Glenn Youngkin for Running on Trumpism," May 20, 2021
  16. ↑ YouTube, "Running for You," June 9, 2021
  17. ↑ Facebook, "Terry McAuliffe," June 14, 2021
  18. ↑ LinkedIn, "Glenn Youngkin," accessed April 5, 2021
  19. ↑ ’’Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey submitted on Feb. 19, 2021.’’
  20. ↑ Facebook, "Glenn Youngkin," June 8, 2021
  21. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  22. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  23. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  24. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  25. ↑ Washington Post, "Virginia Democrats seek recounts in two close House of Delegates races," November 17, 2021
  26. ↑ The Hill, "Virginia Democratic lawmakers request recounts in two House of Delegates races," November 16, 2021
  27. ↑ 13 News Now, "Karen Greenhalgh wins District 85 House of Delegates race," December 3, 2021
  28. ↑ Washington Post, "With judges’ ruling in recount, GOP cements two-seat majority in Virginia House of Delegates," December 8, 2021
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 CBS News, "The tight battle for control of Virginia's House of Delegates," May 4, 2021
  30. ↑ The Atlantic, "The Democrats’ New Trump Problem," May 26, 2021
  31. ↑ Virginia Mercury, "Trump has been a gift to Va. Democrats for years. Now can they win without him in the White House?" June 14, 2021
  32. ↑ Inside NoVa, "Kerr: Democratic majority may be in jeopardy," April 1, 2021
  33. ↑ Following the election, one Democrat resigned and Republicans won the subsequent special election. The one independent also caucused with Republicans, giving the chamber a 50-50 split, decided through a power-sharing agreement.
  34. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Vintage 2020 Population Estimates for the United States and States," June 17, 2021
  35. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Vintage 2020 Population Estimates for the United States and States," June 17, 2021
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