Fact check: Are Bernie Sanders' chances of winning the Democratic nomination slipping away?
February 26, 2016
By Humberto Sanchez
Media outlets are reporting that Hillary Clinton is on a "glide path" to the Democratic nomination and Bernie Sanders has only a "remote" chance of winning enough delegates to overtake her.[1][2] With 11 states holding contests on March 1, 2016, also known as Super Tuesday, just a few days away, the contest is effectively over, they claim. Is this accurate?
According to Bloomberg’s delegate tracker, Clinton has 503 delegates, including 452 unpledged delegates, also known as “superdelegates.” Sanders has a total of 71, including 20 superdelegates. But, without superdelegates, Clinton and Sanders are tied. Clinton holds 51 delegates and Sanders holds 51.[3]
Superdelegates
There are two basic types of Democratic convention delegates: pledged and unpledged. Pledged delegates are won by a candidate by competing in state contests, like the Iowa caucuses. While rules vary from state to state, a candidate can win some delegates, even if they don’t win the overall contest, by clearing a minimum requirement, such as winning in a particular congressional district. Pledged delegates are required to cast their votes for the candidate to whom they were pledged during a primary or caucus.
Unpledged delegates, unofficially known as superdelegates, are a type of delegate in the Democratic nominating process made up of members of Congress, governors, members of the Democratic National Committee and a category called “Distinguished Party Leader,” which includes former presidents.[4]
In 2016, there are a total of 4,763 Democratic delegate votes, available, including 714 superdelegate votes, and a candidate will need 2,383 to win the nomination.[5]
Superdelegates are significant because they can help determine the nomination in a tight contest. Unlike pledged delegates, superdelegates are not required to vote for the winner of the state primary or caucus that they will represent at the national convention and can choose to endorse whichever candidate they wish. They can also change their minds after initially settling on a particular candidate, if they wish to. Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), who is running for U.S. Senate, has offered his superdelegate vote to the winner of an online poll on his campaign website.[6]
Superdelegates were introduced to the process after the 1980 election to allow party and elected officials to exert more control over the system and help nominate what they considered to be an electable candidate.[7][8]
For most of their existence, superdelegates went relatively unnoticed. In the 1984 election, it was superdelegates that helped Walter Mondale, the establishment favored candidate, clinch the nomination over Gary Hart.[9] The issue of superdelegates also came into play in 2008 when Clinton and then-Senator Barack Obama were locked in a close race for pledged delegates. Both campaigns lobbyied superdelegates for their support. In 2008, Obama eventually claimed victory surpassing the critical threshold of 2,118 delegates following the South Dakota and Montana primaries. Obama ended the process with 2,229.5 delegates, including 463 superdelegates, according to Real Clear Politics.[10] Clinton ended with 1,896.5 delegates, including 275 superdelegates.
Similar to 2016, Clinton began 2008 with a strong lead with superdelegates. At the time of the New Hampshire primary, Clinton led Obama 154 to 50.[11] But Obama’s popularity grew as he won nominating contests and kept the race for pledged delegates close. He eventually edged ahead of Clinton among pledged delegates, though he needed superdelegates to reach the threshold for victory.
According to FiveThirtyEight, there were dozens of superdelegates who switched from Clinton to Obama that year.[11] Most of Obama’s superdelegates were reportedly undecided before endorsing. By May 2008, Obama had surpassed Clinton in the superdelegate count.[12]
On March 1, 2016, Super Tuesday, there will be 865 pledged delegates at stake for the Democratic candidates. While Clinton is favored by some, Sanders is within striking distance of Hillary Clinton in at least five of the 11 contests, Politico wrote February 25, 2016.[13]
Superdelegates tend to grow in influence if in the months leading up to the convention no candidate has a clear chance of accumulating enough delegates to claim the nomination through the caucuses and primaries. That is because superdelegates can back one candidate over another irrespective of how their states voted in a primary or caucus, or whether they had initially pledged their vote to another candidate.
Conclusion
After Hillary Clinton’s victory in the Nevada caucuses, several media outlets said that Clinton is on a "glide path" to the Democratic nomination and Bernie Sanders has only a "remote" chance of winning enough delegates to overtake her. The claim is not true. While Clinton remains favored by some, she is currently tied with Sanders at 51 pledged delegates each. If Sanders continues to outperform expectations—for example on March 1, 2016, when 11 states hold nominating contests—he keeps the door open to stay in the race and can continue to make the case to superdelegates.[14]
Launched in October 2015 and active through October 2018, Fact Check by Ballotpedia examined claims made by elected officials, political appointees, and political candidates at the federal, state, and local levels. We evaluated claims made by politicians of all backgrounds and affiliations, subjecting them to the same objective and neutral examination process. As of 2025, Ballotpedia staff periodically review these articles to revaluate and reaffirm our conclusions. Please email us with questions, comments, or concerns about these articles. To learn more about fact-checking, click here.
Sources and Notes
- ↑ Bloomberg, "Clinton, Trump Now on Parallel Glide Paths to Nomination," February 22, 2016
- ↑ New York Times, "Delegate Count Leaving Bernie Sanders With Steep Climb," February 21, 2016
- ↑ Bloomberg, "Who's Winning the Presidential Delegate Count?" accessed February 26, 2016
- ↑ Vox, "Every single Democratic superdelegate, in one chart," February 22, 2016
- ↑ Democratic National Committee Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," February 19, 2016
- ↑ Alan Grayson for U.S. Senate, "Whom do you support for President?" accessed February 26, 2016
- ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Presidential Nominating Process and the National Party Conventions, 2016: Frequently Asked Questions," December 30, 2015
- ↑ U.S. News and World Report, "Meet the Superdelegates: Clinton, Obama Fight for the Party Elite," February 13, 2008
- ↑ The Gadsen Times, "'Super-delegates' did it for Mondale," July 27, 1984
- ↑ Real Clear Politics, "2008 Democratic Delegates," accessed February 26, 2016
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 FiveThirtyEight, "Superdelegates Might Not Save Hillary Clinton," February 12, 2016
- ↑ ABC News, "Obama Now Takes The Lead in Superdelegates Too," May 9, 2008
- ↑ Politico, "Bernie bears down for Super Tuesday surprise," February 25, 2016
- ↑ U.S. News and World Report, "Superdelegates Don't Feel the Bern Yet," February 22, 2016
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