Fact check: Is Montana ranked 49th nationally in wages, and are millennials leaving the state seeking employment?
February 17, 2016
By Autumn Lewien
Just days after officially announcing his candidacy for governor of Montana, Republican businessman Greg Gianforte, speaking in Billings, Mont., stated that “Montana ranks 49th nationally in wages. And too many kids are leaving to find work elsewhere.”[1]
Since his entrance into Montana’s gubernatorial race on January 20, 2015, Greg Gianforte, founder and former CEO of RightNow Technologies, has made the state of Montana’s economy—and incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock's economic policies in general—a central component of his campaign, addressing them in op-eds, campaign speeches and campaign ads.[2][3] Gianforte has made similar claims regarding Montana's wage rank and youth out-migration rates in the past. In an interview from August 18, 2015, Gianforte told Montana Public Radio News Director Eric Whitney that in many Montana communities, “kids have to leave to find good paying jobs,” and noted that Montana lacks “high wage jobs that allow people to support a family.”[4]
We decided to examine these two recurring economic claims and found that the numbers support Gianforte’s statement: In 2013, Montana ranked 49th in the country for annual mean wage, and out-migration rates for the 18- to 24-year age cohort over the past five years (from 2010 to 2014) were three percentage points higher than the national average.
Is Montana ranked 49th nationally in wages?
To fact check Gianforte’s claim, we examined average annual wage data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC)—a nonpartisan organization that houses federal IRS data. In 2013, the last year that data is available for, Montana’s average annual wage ranked 49th among states—ahead of only Mississippi.[5] At $33,180, Montana’s wage was approximately $10,300 less than the national average wage and almost $27,000 below Connecticut, the state with the highest recorded average wage for the 2013 filing year. Figure 1 depicts the 2013 TRAC wage rankings for all states.
Figure 1.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which bases its numbers on surveys from employers, places Montana slightly higher in the rankings, but still below the majority of the country. In 2014, with an annual mean wage of $39,880, Montana ranked 44th in the nation, above Idaho, South Carolina, Arkansas, West Virginia, South Dakota and Mississippi.[6]
Out-migration rates in Montana
What about Gianforte’s claim regarding millennials leaving the state to find employment?
In a January 27 press release, Gianforte gave more detail on the "kids leaving to find work elsewhere" statement. He said, "Montana is experiencing a net out migration of college educated young people who are leaving Montana to find higher wage jobs elsewhere."[7] The campaign cited a 2016 study conducted by The University of Montana's Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) as the source for this claim. This report is not yet available to the public; as such, we reached out to Bryce Ward, the associate director at the Bureau of Business and Economic Research and the author of the cited report, for clarification. According to Ward, Gianforte's claim is a "fair representation" of the 2016 study.[8] However, as we do not have access to the report or its specific data, we conducted our own data analysis.
According to U.S. Census data, from 2010 to 2014, Montana’s out-migration rates were highest among people ages 18 to 24. This is consistent with the national trend. However, Montana’s out-migration rates for this age group outpaced the national average by an estimated three percent. From 2010 to 2014, Montana lost 43,215 individuals in the 18- to 24 age group, amounting to about 26 percent of the state’s total out-migration population.[9]
Figure 2.
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Annual graduate employment surveys conducted by Montana Tech illustrate similar out-migration patterns to the Census data. According to a 2012 graduate survey, 54 percent of recent graduates—or approximately 162 graduates—were employed out of state.[10] In addition to this, according to Montana State University’s 2014 Career Destination Survey, approximately 32 percent (or 342) of the total reporting graduates were seeking employment out of state.[11]
Conclusion
Greg Gianforte presented a dim view of Montana’s economy in his candidacy speech, stating, “Unfortunately, Montana ranks 49th nationally in wages.” We find this claim to be accurate. In 2013, TRAC ranked Montana 49th among states for annual mean wages. In addition, we find Gianforte’s claim that “too many kids are leaving to find work elsewhere,” to be supported by Montana's higher than average out-migration rates among people ages 18 to 24 over the past five years. Furthermore, according to graduate surveys conducted by two Montana universities, sizable proportions of graduates are employed or are seeking employment out of state.
Launched in October 2015 and active through October 2018, Fact Check by Ballotpedia examined claims made by elected officials, political appointees, and political candidates at the federal, state, and local levels. We evaluated claims made by politicians of all backgrounds and affiliations, subjecting them to the same objective and neutral examination process. As of 2025, Ballotpedia staff periodically review these articles to revaluate and reaffirm our conclusions. Please email us with questions, comments, or concerns about these articles. To learn more about fact-checking, click here.
Sources and Notes
- ↑ Greg Gianforte for Governor, "Greg Gianforte Announcement Speech," January 24, 2016
- ↑ Gianforte, G. Missoulian, "Why I'm running for governor of Montana," January 28, 2016
- ↑ YouTube, "Bold," January 20, 2016
- ↑ Whitney, E. Montana Public Radio, "In Depth With Greg Gianforte On Run For Governor," August 18, 2105 (0:00 to 1:15)
- ↑ Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse: IRS, “Taxpayer Returns by County,” accessed February 12, 2016
- ↑ United States Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Occupational Employment Statistics,” accessed February 6, 2016
- ↑ Greg Gianforte for Governor, "New Report Highlights Lack of Jobs for Young Montanans," January 27, 2016
- ↑ Autumn Lewien, "Email communication with Bryce Ward," February 15, 2016
- ↑ The United States Census Bureau, "2014 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates," accessed February 6, 2016
- ↑ Montana Tech Career Services, "Montana Tech 2012 Graduate Survey," 2012 (page 6)
- ↑ Montana State University, "Career Destinations," 2014 (page 14)
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