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Impact of term limits on the partisan control of state legislative seats, 2010-2011 and 2013-2016
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← 2014
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| Term Limits |
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| Impact of Term Limits by Year |
| 2010 • 2011 • 2012 • 2014 • 2016 |
| State senates |
| Arizona • Arkansas • California Colorado • Florida • Maine Michigan • Missouri • Montana Nebraska • Nevada • Ohio Oklahoma • South Dakota |
| State houses |
| Arizona • Arkansas • California Colorado • Florida • Maine Michigan • Missouri • Montana Nevada • Ohio Oklahoma • South Dakota |
| State legislatures with term limits |
| Term limits on the ballot |
Term-limited seats were twice as likely to change party hands than non-term-limited seats, based on a Ballotpedia study of state legislative elections. Of the 890 seats in 15 states held by a term-limited legislator from 2010 to 2011 and 2013 to 2016, 120, or 13 percent, were replaced by an officeholder of a different political party. Over the same time period, 19,642 non-term-limited state legislative seats were up for election. Of these non-term-limited seats, 1,329 seats, or roughly 7 percent, changed partisan control.[1] Thus, a term-limited state legislative seat was more likely to change partisan control during this period.
This pattern was true for term-limited seats held by both parties. Seats held by term-limited Democrats changed hands to the Republican Party twice as often as non-limited seats, 10.8 percent to 5.5 percent. Democrats were able to flip term-limited seats three times as often as non-term-limited seats, doing so 2.2 percent of the time compared to 0.7 percent of the time.
Ballotpedia examined the impact of term-limited incumbents on the political party control of state legislative seats. Due to redistricting in 2012, several newly-drawn districts pitted incumbents against incumbents. As a result, the 2012 elections were not included in this study. See our methodology for more information.
Below, we identified the number of term-limited state legislative seats that changed political party control as well as the states that demonstrated notable partisan shifts following the tenure of term-limited state legislators.
The following total term-limited state legislative seats changed political party control from 2010-2011 and 2013-2016:
- 96 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican
- 20 state legislative seats flipped from Republican to Democrat
- Three state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to independent
- One state legislative seat flipped from independent to Republican
The following states demonstrated notable partisan shifts in term-limited state legislative districts from 2010-2011 and 2013-2016:
- In Arkansas, 22 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican.
- In Oklahoma, 14 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican.
- In Maine, 15 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican, 14 state legislative seats flipped from Republican to Democrat, and three state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to independent.
- In Montana, 13 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican while one state legislative seat flipped from Republican to Democrat.
- In Missouri, 10 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican while one state legislative seat flipped from Republican to Democrat.
- In Michigan, 10 state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican while two state legislative seats flipped from Republican to Democrat.
Political party changes in term-limited state legislative districts
Click on the tabs below to view information about political party changes in term-limited state legislative districts from 2010-2011 and 2013-2016.
Overview
From 2010-2011 and 2013-2016, 890 state legislators were prevented from running for re-election due to term limits. The majority of these term-limited state legislative districts elected new officeholders of the same political party as the outgoing term-limited incumbents. However, the following total state legislative seats flipped to a different political party:
- 96 (10.8 percent) state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican
- 20 (2.2 percent) state legislative seats flipped from Republican to Democrat
- Three state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to independent
- One state legislative seat flipped from independent to Republican
Comparison to non-term-limited seats
The partisan changes for term-limited state legislative seats reflected the overall partisan changes for the 19,642 non-term-limited state legislative seats during the same period:
- 1,081 (5.5 percent) state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican
- 143 (0.7 percent) state legislative seats flipped from Republican to Democrat
- Seven state legislative seats flipped from Democrat to independent
- Four state legislative seats flipped from independent to Democrat
- Six state legislative seats flipped from Republican to independent
- Nine state legislative seat flipped from independent to Republican
2016
Thirteen state senate chambers and 13 state house chambers that held general elections on November 8, 2016, included some state legislators who were unable to run for re-election in 2016 because of their state's legislative term limits.
- A total of 67 state senators were term-limited in 2016. This represents 20.2 percent of the 331 total state senate seats up for election in the 13 term-limited state senates with elections in November 2016.
- A total of 186 state representatives were term-limited in 2016. This represents 14.8 percent of the 1,261 total seats up for election in the 13 term-limited state house with elections in November 2016.
Altogether, 253 state legislators were forced to leave office after the elections due to term limits. Voters in 23, or nine percent, of these state legislative districts elected new officeholders of a different political party.
The following table identifies political party changes in term-limited state legislative districts following the 2016 elections:
| State | Political party changes in term-limited state legislative districts, 2016 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat to Republican | Republican to Democrat | Democrat to Independent | |
| Arizona | -- | -- | -- |
| Arkansas | -- | -- | -- |
| California | -- | 1 | -- |
| Colorado | 1 | -- | -- |
| Florida | -- | 1 | -- |
| Maine | -- | -- | 1 |
| Michigan | -- | 1 | -- |
| Missouri | -- | -- | -- |
| Montana | 6 | 1 | -- |
| Nebraska | -- | -- | -- |
| Nevada | -- | -- | -- |
| Ohio | 1 | -- | -- |
| Oklahoma | 8 | -- | -- |
| South Dakota | 2 | -- | -- |
| Total | 18 | 4 | 1 |
2015
The Louisiana State Senate and the Louisiana House of Representatives held general elections in 2015.
- A total of 7 state senators were term-limited in 2015. This represents 18 percent of the 39 total seats up for election in the state Senate.
- A total of 14 state representatives were term-limited In 2015. This represents 13 percent of the 105 total seats up for election in the state House.
Altogether, 21 state legislators were forced to leave office after the elections due to term limits. Voters in three, or 14 percent, of these state legislative districts elected new officeholders of a different political party.
- Democrat to Republican: 2
- Republican to Democrat: 1
2014
Fourteen state senate chambers and 13 state house chambers that held general elections on November 4, 2014, included some state legislators who were unable to run for re-election in 2014 because of their state's legislative term limits.
- A total of 63 state senators were term-limited in 2014. This represents 19 percent of the 331 total state senate seats up for election in the 14 term-limited state senates with elections in November 2014.
- A total of 160 state representatives were term-limited in 2014. This represents 12.7 percent of the 1,261 total seats up for election in the 13 term-limited states with elections in November 2014.
Altogether, 223 state legislators were forced to leave office after the elections due to term limits. Voters in 27, or 12 percent, of these state legislative districts elected new officeholders of a different political party.
The following table identifies political party changes in term-limited state legislative districts following the 2014 elections:
| State | Political party changes in term-limited state legislative districts, 2014 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat to Republican | Republican to Democrat | Democrat to Independent | |
| Arizona | -- | -- | -- |
| Arkansas | 4 | -- | -- |
| California | 2 | -- | -- |
| Colorado | -- | -- | -- |
| Florida | -- | 1 | -- |
| Maine | 4 | 5 | -- |
| Michigan | 1 | -- | -- |
| Missouri | 3 | 1 | -- |
| Montana | 1 | -- | -- |
| Nebraska | -- | -- | -- |
| Nevada | 1 | -- | -- |
| Ohio | 1 | -- | -- |
| Oklahoma | 2 | -- | -- |
| South Dakota | -- | 1 | -- |
| Total | 19 | 8 | 0 |
2013
- See also: State legislative elections, 2013
No term-limited state legislative seats were up for election in 2013.
2011
The Louisiana State Senate and the Louisiana House of Representatives held general elections in 2011.
- A total of six state senators were term-limited in 2011. This represents 15 percent of the 39 total seats up for election in the state Senate.
- A total of 12 state representatives were term-limited In 2011. This represents 9.5 percent of the 105 total seats up for election in the state House.
Altogether, 18 state legislators were forced to leave office after the elections due to term limits. Voters in six, or 33 percent, of these state legislative districts elected new officeholders of a different political party.
- Democrat to Republican: 4
- Republican to Democrat: 1
- Independent to Republican: 1
2010
Fourteen state senate chambers and thirteen state house chambers that held general elections on November 2, 2010, included some state legislators who were unable to run for re-election in 2010 because of their state's legislative term limits.
- A total of 122 state senators were termed-limited in 2010. This represents 36 percent of the 337 total state senate seats in the 14 term-limited state senates with elections in 2010.
- A total of 253 state representatives were term-limited in 2010. This represents 20 percent of the 1,263 total seats in the 13 term-limited state houses with elections in November 2010.
Altogether, 375 current state legislators had to leave office after the November elections because of term limits. Voters in 61, or 16 percent, of these state legislative districts elected new officeholders of a different political party.
The following table identifies political party changes in term-limited state legislative districts following the 2010 elections:
| State | Political party changes in term-limited state legislative districts, 2010 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat to Republican | Republican to Democrat | Democrat to Independent | |
| Arizona | -- | -- | -- |
| Arkansas | 18 | 1 | -- |
| California | -- | 1 | 1 |
| Colorado | 1 | -- | -- |
| Florida | -- | -- | -- |
| Maine | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Michigan | 9 | 1 | -- |
| Missouri | 7 | -- | -- |
| Montana | 6 | -- | -- |
| Nebraska | -- | -- | -- |
| Nevada | -- | -- | -- |
| Ohio | -- | -- | -- |
| Oklahoma | 4 | -- | -- |
| South Dakota | 2 | 1 | -- |
| Total | 53 | 6 | 2 |
Methodology
Ballotpedia identified the term-limited state legislators in the 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 state legislative elections. By comparing the political party affiliations of the newly-elected officeholders with those of the term-limited incumbents, we highlighted the partisan shifts that occurred in term-limited state legislative districts.
Due to redistricting in 2012, the districts of at least 66 term-limited incumbents were merged with districts of other incumbents. As a result, the 2012 elections were removed from the data set due to the influence of multiple incumbents. Similarly, 12 term-limited incumbents vacated their offices prior to the end of their terms and were not included in the study. Though Nebraska has term limits in place for state legislators, the members are nonpartisan. For this reason, the 37 nonpartisan Nebraska state legislators impacted by term limits from 2010 to 2016 were also not included in the study.
Background
Beginning in the 1990s, term limit laws were implemented in 20 state legislatures through either successful ballot measures, referenda, legislative acts, or state constitutional changes. The Maine legislature was the first state to enact legislative term limits in 1993.
Since 1997, however, six state legislatures have either overturned their own term limits or the state supreme courts have ruled such limits unconstitutional. In 2002, the Idaho Legislature became the first legislature of its kind to repeal its own term limits, enacted by a public vote in 1994, in part because it applied to local officials in addition to state legislators.[2][3]
State legislatures with term limits
The following 15 legislatures have term limits:
- Arizona Legislature: four two-year terms for both houses (eight years).
- Arkansas General Assembly: three two-year terms for House members (six years) and two four-year terms for Senate members (eight years).
- California State Legislature: three two-year terms for Assembly members (six years) and two four-year terms for Senate members (eight years).
- Colorado General Assembly: four consecutive two-year terms in the House (eight years) and two consecutive four-year terms in the Senate (eight years).
- Florida Legislature: may serve no more than eight years in either house.
- Louisiana State Legislature: three four-year terms for both houses (twelve years).
- Maine Legislature: four two-year terms for both houses (eight years).
- Michigan Legislature: three two-year terms for House members (six years) and two four-year terms for Senate members (eight years).
- Missouri General Assembly: four consecutive two-year terms for House members (eight years) and two four-year consecutive terms for Senate members (eight years). Members may be elected again to the other house, but not serve more than 16 years.
- Montana State Legislature: four two-year terms for House members (eight years) in any sixteen year period and two four-year terms for Senate members (eight years) in any sixteen year period.
- Nebraska Legislature: two four-year terms (eight years).
- Nevada Legislature: six two-year terms for Assembly members (twelve years) and three four-year terms for Senate members (twelve years).
- Ohio General Assembly: four consecutive two-year terms for House members (eight years) and two consecutive four-year terms for Senate members (eight years).
- Oklahoma Legislature: six two-year terms for House members (twelve years) and three four-year terms for Senate members (twelve years).
- South Dakota Legislature: four two-year terms for both houses (eight years).
Overturned state legislative term limits
The following six legislatures have had their term limits nullified:
- Idaho Legislature: the Legislature repealed its own term limits in 2002.
- Massachusetts General Court: the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court overturned term limits in 1997.
- Oregon Legislative Assembly: the Oregon Supreme Court ruled term limits unconstitutional in 2002.
- Utah State Legislature: the Legislature repealed its own term limits in 2003.
- Washington State Legislature: the Washington Supreme Court voided term limits in 1998.
- Wyoming Legislature: the Wyoming Supreme Court ruled term limits unconstitutional in 2004.
See also
- State legislatures with term limits
- State government trifectas
- State government triplexes
- State executives
- State courts
- Ballot measures
Footnotes
- ↑ Due to redistricting in 2012, several newly-drawn districts pitted incumbents against incumbents. As a result, the 2012 elections were not included in this study. See our methodology for more information.
- ↑ The New York Times, "Idaho Legislature Repeals Term Limit Law, Undoing Voter-Approved Measure," February 2, 2002
- ↑ Los Angeles Times, "Idaho Officials Repeal Term Limit Legislation," February 2, 2002
