Insiders Poll: GOP Insiders downplay Boehner resignation
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September 28, 2015
In a Ballotpedia survey, a slim majority of Republican political Insiders downplayed the consequences of Ohio Rep. John Boehner’s decision to step down as Speaker of the House of Representatives. Boehner announced his decision on September 25, and said it will take effect at the end of October.
Asked how serious a blow Boehner’s resignation was to the GOP, a 43 percent plurality of 102 GOP Insiders who responded to the survey chose this option: “Not too serious: Boehner’s Speakership had become more of a liability than an asset for Republicans in running the House and passing legislation.” Roughly another 11 percent felt that Boehner’s withdrawal was “not at all serious: As Speaker, Boehner faced continued problems running the House and the GOP conservative base would have become more alienated, endangering the party’s House majority in the 2016* elections.” But more than a third of the GOP Insiders agreed with the proposition that Boehner’s exit was “Serious: Republicans are going to miss Boehner’s leadership and have trouble pulling together to enact their agenda in the House.” And the rest of these influential Republicans chose the option that Boehner’s departure was “very serious: it calls into question not only the Republicans’ ability to govern in the House, but also to hold their majority in the 2016* elections.”
Democrats were more pessimistic, but notably, a plurality of the 71 Democratic Insiders who responded agreed with the option that Boehner’s resignation was “serious,” as opposed to the option that it was “very serious” and likely to endanger the GOP House majority in the upcoming election.
“Boehner's resignation is only a symptom of other challenges caused by a small number of GOP caucus members,” declared a GOP Insider who said the Speaker’s exit was not too serious. Echoed another, “In the short term, conservatives will be pacified. Longer term, same problems will exist.” Indeed, many GOP Insiders who downplayed Boehner’s exit and described it as not too serious wondered whether the Ohioan’s departure is going to calm the roiling House GOP conference. “It is not clear that anyone who replaces Boehner will have a different outcome,” averred one GOP Insider. The survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the political insiders that includes strategists, pollsters, media consultants, grassroots activists, lobbyists and interest groups operatives in both parties.
But other Republicans were more pessimistic. “This will not be an easy transition,” worried one GOP Insider. “Boehner, being a target, buffered the rest of leadership from the potshots.” Another who said Boehner’s exit was a serious blow, predicted, “This will only be a temporary solution. The problem is the malcontents want to pursue a confrontational strategy that an overwhelming majority of House Republicans consider suicidal.” And a third added, “It’s serious inside the [Capitol] dome for those R’s, but the country won’t notice too much of a difference. If you're careening uncontrollably at 300 mph toward a cliff, a few more clicks in speed don't much matter.”
Some Republicans who said Boehner’s exit was “not too serious” a blow to the House GOP were critical of his leadership qualities. “Boehner lacked the skills to mange this particularly contentious caucus,” charged one Republican Insider. “He didn't reward his friends nor punish his enemies.” Another observed, “There was a disconnect within the Conference that wasn’t going to be bridged with him as Speaker.”
And while it was a minority view, some Republican Insiders thought Boehner’s exit was “not at all serious” trouble for the House GOP and seemed to welcome his departure. “Nothing in the federal government gets funded unless Congress approves,” noted one GOP Insider. “Yet every time the base demanded zero funds for Obamacare, illegal amnesty, Planned Parenthood, then Boehner/[Mitch] McConnell say that cannot be done. Any question about why the base is dissatisfied?”
Democratic Insiders were predictably pessimistic in assessing the political fallout for the GOP from Boehner’s resignation. Some felt that it would contribute to the perception that Republicans are not responsible players when it comes to governing. “Normally I'd think this is too inside baseball to voters,” said one Democratic Insider. “But trust in the GOP to govern is going to be a central part of narrative next fall.” Another echoed that Boehner’s exit under fire “reinforces the notion that the House Republicans cannot govern.”
Others believed that the Republican Party’s image would become more tarnished. “Tea party drove him out, that will be the perception—extremism,” maintained a Democratic Insider. Another Democratic said, “They are going to veer to the right even more just as voters are started to pay attention.” And a third predicted, “The mainstream GOP has lost control and are allowing themselves to be whip sawed by the far right. There's no way out of this corner.”
And just as President Barack Obama and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid had some kind words for Boehner after he announced his decision, so too did a number of Democratic Insiders. “Boehner was one of few guys committed to getting things done,” acknowledged one Democratic Insider.
But those compliments were also mixed with forecasts that Boehner’s departure would have serious consequences for the House GOP. “Boehner is a grown up in a caucus with too many members that are pursuing a fantasy right wing agenda. More turbulence ahead,” averred one Democratic Insider. Echoed another, “His moderating effect will be missed and the far right wing will be emboldened.” And a third added, “Boehner was as good a conciliator as could be found among the disparate members of the Republican caucus. It does not get better from here.”
*Initially this option incorrectly referred to the 2012 election.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the forthcoming 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted September 25-28.
