Republican wave continues in 2014 with gains in gubernatorial elections

November 5, 2014

By Nick Katers

Gubernatorial victories in Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts headlined a banner evening for state Republicans across the country. With two governors' races still to be decided at the time of publication, the Republicans gained three new offices with results in Alaska dependent on a small percentage of uncounted precincts.

After the 2014 midterm elections, Republicans hold 31 gubernatorial seats and Democrats hold 17 gubernatorial seats. The 31 governors' offices held by the GOP is the most held by one party since 1999. Voters showed support for incumbents seeking re-election, with 25 out of 27 incumbents in decided races winning new terms in 2014.

Gubernatorial upsets

Republican gains depended on flipping states where Democratic gubernatorial candidates struggled to gain traction with skeptical voters. Former U.S. Rep. Asa Hutchinson defeated Mike Ross (D) by 14 percent in the race to replace term-limited Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe (D). Bruce Rauner (R) and Gov. Pat Quinn (D) were locked in a close race in Illinois, with Rauner taking the seat by a four-point margin despite a late surge in polls by Quinn. A surprising gain for Republicans came with Larry Hogan's victory in Maryland, which seemed poised to elect Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown as the replacement for outgoing Gov. Martin O'Malley. Several appearances by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) helped Hogan get national attention for his campaign. The Massachusetts race turned toward Charles D. Baker (R) in October as Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) proved ineffective at mobilizing state Democrats to her side.

Referendum on the 2010 tea party wave

Twelve Republican governors replaced Democrats in 2010 as part of a tea party wave created by perceived overreach by the Obama administration. All 12 incumbents sought re-election in 2014 and only Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett was defeated on November 4. Democratic challenger Tom Wolf defeated Corbett by a nine-point margin after a successful campaign against the outgoing governor's fiscal conservatism. Pennsylvania proved an outlier, however, as other members of the 2010 gubernatorial class maintained or improved on their previous performances.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker faced his third election in the past four years and defeated Democratic challenger Mary Burke by a five-point margin. This margin of victory is roughly equal to his 5.7 percent margin in the 2010 election and slightly lower than the 6.8 percent margin in his 2012 recall election. Maine Gov. Paul LePage defeated Mike Michaud (D) by four points in 2014, an improvement over his 1.7 percent victory over independent candidate Eliot Cutler in 2010. The biggest gain came in Ohio, with Gov. John Kasich defeating Democratic candidate Ed FitzGerald by 30 percent following a two-point victory in 2010.

Testing the polls

Frequent polling throughout the election season informed narratives about governors' races throughout the country. Election results provide the ultimate test for these polls. The following table compares the margin of victory from races mentioned in this article with the average of polls collected by Ballotpedia with a minimum of five polls required to qualify for analysis.

Election results v. poll averages
State	Margin of victory	Winning party	Average poll margin	Winning party in poll average	Difference
Arkansas	13.9%	Republican	3%	Republican	10.9%
Illinois	4.8%	Republican	2.2%	Democratic	7.0%
Maine	4%	Republican	0.41%	Democratic	4.41%
Maryland	9%	Republican	0.50%	Democratic	9.5%
Massachusetts	9%	Republican	0.33%	Republican	9.33%
Ohio	30.9%	Republican	14.25%	Republican	16.65%
Pennsylvania	9.8%	Democratic	13%	Democratic	3.2%
Wisconsin	6.7%	Republican	0.93%	Republican	7.63%

See also

• State executive official elections, 2014
• Gubernatorial elections, 2014
• Preview of 2014's most competitive gubernatorial races

Footnotes

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