Sabato's Crystal Ball
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | |
| Basic facts | |
| Location: | Charlottesville, Va. |
| Top official: | Larry J. Sabato |
| Year founded: | 2002 |
| Website: | Official website |
Sabato's Crystal Ball is a Charlottesville-based political newsletter run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. The publication describes itself as "a comprehensive, nonpartisan political analysis and handicapping newsletter" that reports on presidential elections and every congressional and gubernatorial election. The Crystal Ball's race ratings are based on electoral history, polling, candidate quality, modeling, and reporting.[1]
Background
Sabato's Crystal Ball was established ahead of the 2002 elections. In addition to providing race ratings, the Crystal Ball analyzes trends in U.S. politics and elections and features outside contributors.[1] As of September 2025, the outlet described itself as a "free public service meant to appeal to political junkies and interested voters alike" and said its mission included seeking "to foster public understanding of elections."[1]
Larry J. Sabato is the founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. He has been a guest on TV programs on Fox, CNN, and MSNBC, among others. He is the author and editor of over 24 books on U.S. politics.[2]
Leadership
The following individuals held leadership positions with Sabato's Crystal Ball as of September 2025:[1]
- Larry J. Sabato, editor-in-chief
- Kyle Klondik, managing editor
- J. Miles Coleman, associate editor
Work and activities
Election forecasting
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Since its inception ahead of the 2002 midterms, Sabato's Crystal Ball has provided forecasts predicting the outcome of all congressional, gubernatorial, and presidential elections.[3] According to its website, their "race ratings are based on a number of factors, including electoral history, polling, candidate quality, modeling, and reporting."[4] Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. The following are general definitions for each rating, arranged from highest to lowest degree of party advantage.
- Safe Democratic / Safe Republican: One party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely Democratic / Likely Republican: One party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Leans Democratic / Leans Republican: One party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
- Toss-up: Neither party has an edge.
See also
- What is an influencer?
- U.S. Senate elections
- U.S. House elections
- Gubernatorial elections
- Race rating definitions and methods
External links
- Sabato's Crystal Ball website
- UVA Center for Politics on Facebook
- UVA Center for Politics on X
- Larry J. Sabato on Facebook
- Larry J. Sabato on X
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Sabato's Crystal Ball, "About," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ University of Virginia Center for Politics, "Larry J. Sabato," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "Crystal Ball promo," accessed September 18, 2025
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "About Sabato’s Crystal Ball," accessed October 28, 2025
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