Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day for January 26, 2018
The Number of the Day columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
January 26, 2018: The new tax law passed in December limited the deductibility of state and local taxes. The vast majority of Americans won’t notice any change, but an analysis by the Pew Charitable Trusts shows that wealthy individuals in states like New York will feel the most pain.[1]
Under the new law, deductions for state and local taxes will be capped at $10,000. But, among New Yorkers who itemize their deductions, the average deduction is for $22,169 in state and local taxes. In four other states plus the District of Columbia, that figure is $15,000 or higher (Connecticut, California, New Jersey, and Massachusetts).
Even in these states, however, the impact will be limited. Nearly two-thirds (66%) of New York voters don’t itemize their taxes at all. And it is likely that most who do itemize pay far less than the $10,000 they are still able to deduct.
These figures, from the Pew analysis, reflect data from tax year 2015.
Nationwide, 70.9% did not itemize their taxes at all and will not be impacted at all by the limitation on deducting state and local taxes. Most of the 29.1% who do itemize will pay less than $10,000 and will still be able to fully deduct those taxes. In fact, there are 31 states where the average taxpayer who itemizes pays less than the $10,000 threshold. In those states, very few taxpayers will be affected.
Given that this change in the tax code affects only a small number of wealthy people, the high level of media coverage surrounding the topic may seem unusual. However, it is worth noting that news celebrities are concentrated in the high tax states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and California. Their peer group is far more likely to feel the impact of this change than most Americans.
The table below, based on Pew's data, summarizes the impact on a state-by-state basis.
| State | Claim rate | Per claimant |
|---|---|---|
| New York | 34.50% | $22,169 |
| Connecticut | 41.30% | $19,665 |
| California | 34.40% | $18,438 |
| New Jersey | 41.20% | $17,850 |
| District of Columbia | 39.80% | $16,443 |
| Massachusetts | 36.90% | $15,572 |
| Minnesota | 34.70% | $12,954 |
| Maryland | 45.70% | $12,931 |
| Oregon | 36.00% | $12,617 |
| Illinois | 31.30% | $12,524 |
| United States | 29.60% | $12,471 |
| Rhode Island | 32.80% | $12,434 |
| Vermont | 27.30% | $12,408 |
| Wisconsin | 31.00% | $11,653 |
| Maine | 27.60% | $11,432 |
| Virginia | 37.30% | $11,288 |
| Pennsylvania | 28.60% | $11,248 |
| Nebraska | 27.60% | $11,088 |
| Ohio | 26.10% | $10,445 |
| Iowa | 29.50% | $10,164 |
| New Hampshire | 30.90% | $10,121 |
| Kentucky | 26.00% | $9,955 |
| Hawaii | 29.10% | $9,906 |
| Missouri | 26.10% | $9,886 |
| Michigan | 26.50% | $9,648 |
| North Carolina | 29.00% | $9,587 |
| West Virginia | 17.00% | $9,463 |
| Kansas | 25.50% | $9,425 |
| Montana | 28.20% | $9,358 |
| Delaware | 31.60% | $9,195 |
| Georgia | 32.80% | $9,159 |
| Arkansas | 22.30% | $9,116 |
| Colorado | 32.50% | $9,017 |
| Idaho | 28.00% | $8,863 |
| South Carolina | 27.30% | $8,765 |
| Indiana | 22.80% | $8,756 |
| Utah | 35.30% | $8,291 |
| Oklahoma | 24.00% | $8,201 |
| Texas | 22.80% | $7,824 |
| Arizona | 28.40% | $7,404 |
| Washington | 29.90% | $7,403 |
| Florida | 22.50% | $7,373 |
| New Mexico | 22.50% | $7,091 |
| North Dakota | 18.50% | $6,865 |
| Louisiana | 23.00% | $6,742 |
| Wyoming | 21.60% | $6,307 |
| Mississippi | 23.30% | $6,303 |
| South Dakota | 16.90% | $6,098 |
| Nevada | 24.60% | $5,989 |
| Alabama | 25.80% | $5,919 |
| Tennessee | 19.30% | $5,612 |
| Alaska | 21.40% | $4,932 |
Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology.
- January 25, 2018 – 6.5 percent of private sector workers belong to a labor union
- January 24, 2018 – 780 Americans attending Davos World Economic Forum
- January 23, 2018 – 57 percent of Americans follow national news very closely
- January 22, 2018 – 73 percent voter turnout decline in Wisconsin State Senate election
- January 19, 2018 – 13 percent of Americans give media top marks for reporting both sides of political issues
- To see other recent numbers, check out the archive.
Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published by Ballotpedia weekdays at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Click here to check out the latest update.
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Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.
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