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You're Hired: Tracking the Trump Administration Transition - December 7, 2016

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Polling indexes: Opinion polling during the Trump administration

This is the December 7, 2016, edition of a daily email sent from November 2016 to September 2017 that covered Donald Trump's presidential transition team, potential cabinet appointees, and the different policy positions of those individuals who may have had an effect on the new administration. Previous editions of "You're Hired" can be found here.

Possible nominee

John Kelly

Multiple news outlets reported that President-elect Trump had settled on Retired U.S. Marine Corps General John Kelly as his nominee for Secretary of Homeland Security.According to The New York Times, as of December 7, 2016, Trump had “not yet formally offered the job to General Kelly, in part because the general is out of the country this week. The president-elect plans to roll out the appointment next week, along with his remaining national security positions, including secretary of state.” Kelly joined the U.S. Southern Command in 2012 and served as its leader until his retirement in 2015. The Southern Command oversees military activity in Central and South America as well as the military prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. After retiring, Kelly took an advisory role with the Homeland Security Advisory Council.

Here are some of the statements Kelly has made about national security:

  • November 2016, interview with Military Times, speaking on Trump’s proposed Mexican border wall as one possible part of a border policy: “I think you have to have — we have a right to protect our borders, whether they’re seaward, coastlines, or land borders. We have a right to do that. Every country has a right to do that. Obviously, some form of control whether it's a wall or a fence. But if the countries where these migrants come from have reasonable levels of violence and reasonable levels of economic opportunity, then the people won’t leave to come here.”
  • January 2016, interview with Defense One on the changing tactics of ISIS: “It seems like the Islamic extremists and terrorists have shifted a lot of their message, and that is, ‘Hey, rather than come to Syria, why don’t you stay at home and do San Bernardino, or do Boston, or do Fort Hood.’ Even just a few of these nuts can cause an awful lot of trouble in the Caribbean.”
  • October 2015, speaking with the Pacific Council on International Policy about the global issues not receiving enough attention: “If we say ‘is not receiving enough attention,’ we can take China, Russia, and terrorism off the table. I think what’s left that is a huge threat is transnational criminal organizations and transnational crime. That’s the most important issue: from drugs to human trafficking to illegal coal mining to sex slaves. It’s worldwide.”
  • March 2015, before the Senate Armed Services Committee: “I believe we are overlooking a significant security threat. Despite the heroic efforts of our law enforcement colleagues, criminal organizations are constantly adapting their methods for trafficking across our borders. While there is not yet any indication that the criminal networks involved in human and drug trafficking are interested in supporting the efforts of terrorist groups, these networks could unwittingly, or even wittingly, facilitate the movement of terrorist operatives or weapons of mass destruction toward our borders, potentially undetected and almost completely unrestricted.”
  • July 2014, interview with Defense One: “In comparison to other global threats, the near collapse of societies in the hemisphere with the associated drug and [undocumented immigrant] flow are frequently viewed to be of low importance. Many argue these threats are not existential and do not challenge our national security. I disagree.”

Side note: Kelly is the third military general Trump has said he would nominate for high-level administration positions. He previously announced his intent to nominate retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn for National Security Advisor and retired U.S. Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis for Secretary of Defense.

Nomination announcement

Terry Branstad

At a transition breakfast, Trump announced that he had chosen to nominate Iowa Governor Terry Branstad (R) as his administration’s ambassador to China, making Branstad the second governor Trump has said he would nominate for a high-level appointment in his administration. Branstad is the longest-serving governor in the state’s history having served from 1983 to 1999 and again from 2011 until the present. Branstad was a supporter of Trump during the presidential election.

Branstad’s experience with China: Branstad and Chinese President Xi Jinping have known each other since Branstad’s first term as Iowa governor. Xi visited the state twice.

  • In 1985, Xi visited Iowa as part of a “sister state” exchange program; he was the leader of an animal-feed delegation. During his trip, he toured farms and slept in the home of a local Muscatine, Iowa, family.
  • Xi visited Iowa to discuss trade in 2012, a trip that began a $4.3 billion deal to export soybeans and agricultural products from Iowa to China.
    • Upon returning to Iowa, Xi told the Muscatine Journal: “You were the first group of Americans I came into contact with. To me, you are America.”
    • During the trip, Branstad explained what he liked about Xi: “He's very personable. When we had the state dinner in Des Moines, about half or maybe even over half of his remarks were personal, off-script. I was impressed with that, and I think it was very sincere and very genuine.”
  • In 2013, a Branstad spokesman described the relationship between the governor and Xi: “They like each other — it's not just smile for the cameras, pomp and circumstance. They get along really well, and the governor believes that President Xi is very personable.”

Branstad has also visited China four times since being elected in 2011, including a 2013 trip as part of a trade mission with Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. His most recent trip there was in November.

What this means for Iowa:

  • If Branstad’s nomination is approved by the U.S. Senate, Iowa Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds (R) would become governor until 2019, when Branstad’s term is set to end.
  • As a result of Republicans gaining a majority in the state senate in the 2016 elections, Iowa will be one of 25 Republican trifectas, with the party controlling governorship, and majorities in both legislative chambers. Republicans are expected to pursue “tax reform, water quality improvements and, potentially, changes to the state’s collective bargaining laws,” according to the Des Moines Register.
  • Losing Branstad as governor, however, means losing “the unquestioned leader of the Republican Party in Iowa,” according to the Des Moines Register.

See also