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Geoff Pallay/2012 state legislative elections preview

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Geoff Pallay

Geoff Pallay






Geoff Pallay, Special Projects Director
State Legislatures
Ballotpedia
Connecting People to Politics






Contact:
geoff.pallay@lucyburns.org
Biography:
Geoff Pallay


2010 Results

  • 6,125 seats were up for election
  • 20 chambers swung from Democratic to Republican
  • 600+ seat swing for Republicans
Partisan breakdown before the November 2010 Election
Legislative chamber Democratic Party Republican Party Purple.png Grey.png
State senates 23 18 1 1
State houses 29 15 1 -
Totals: 52 33 2 1

As a result of the election, Republicans picked up 20 legislative chambers while Democrats lost 20. Republicans won 53 total chambers on November 2, while Democrats won only 32. The following is a partisan breakdown of state legislatures after the November 2 election:

Partisan breakdown after the November 2010 Election
Legislative chamber Democratic Party Republican Party Purple.png Grey.png
State senates 16 25 1 1
State houses 16 28 1 0
Totals: 32 53 2 1
Incumbents defeated in 2010 legislative elections
Party Senate House Total
Democratic 89 403 492
Republican 5 10 15
TOTALS 94 413 507
New Legislators after the 2010 legislative elections
Party Senate House Total
Democratic 110 357 467
Republican 278 988 1,266
TOTALS 388 1,345 1,733
Open Seat Winners in 2010 legislative elections
Party Senate House Total
Democratic 108 341 449
Republican 191 538 729
TOTALS 299 879 1,178
State legislative chambers where Democrats gained seats on November 2
State Chamber Number of seats gained by Democrats
California Assembly + 2
Delaware House + 2
Hawaii Senate + 1
Maryland Senate + 2
Massachusetts Senate + 1
Missouri Senate + 1
West Virginia Senate + 1

Setting the stage

The big picture

  • 86 chambers hold state legislative elections
  • 6,015 seats up for election on November 6, 2012
  • 4,783 incumbents running for re-election in 2012
    • 21.2% of all seats up up for election do not have an incumbent running for the seat
    • 248 state legislators are Term-limited
    • We count 121 legislators who lost in 2010 that are trying to get back into state legislatures (about 25%)
  • 24.6% of incumbents seeking re-election faced primary opposition
Partisan Balance of Chambers with 2012 Elections
Pre-election Post-election
Legislative chamber Democratic Party Republican Party Purple.png Grey.png Democratic Party Republican Party Purple.png Grey.png
State senates 17 24 1 1 18 24 0 1
State houses 15 27 1 0 19 24 0 0
Totals: 32 51 2 1 37 48 0 1
Partisan Balance of All 99 Chambers Before and After 2012 Elections
Pre-election Post-election
Legislative chamber Democratic Party Republican Party Purple.png Grey.png Democratic Party Republican Party Purple.png Grey.png
State senates 19 28 2 1 20 28 1 1
State houses 17 31 1 0 21 28 0 0
Totals: 36 59 3 1 41 56 1 1

Primary Results

Comparison between 2010/2012

A contested primary occurs when there is choice for voters and the possibility that at least one candidate can lose.

  • 2,163 (18.4%) of primaries were contested
    • 884 Democratic primaries were contested
    • 1,182 Republican primaries were contested
    • 97 Non-major party contested
  • 96 (8.4%) incumbents in contested primaries were defeated in 2010
    • Democratic Party 52 Democratic incumbents
    • Republican Party 44 Republican incumbents
  • 197 (16.9%) incumbents in contested primaries were defeated in 2012
    • Democratic Party 74 Democratic incumbents
    • Republican Party 123 Republican incumbents
    • North Dakota saw the highest percentage of contested incumbents who were defeated -- 57.1%
    • 6 states saw every contested incumbent advance to the general election
  • 38 incumbent legislators were defeated by a fellow incumbent in a 2012 primary

Competitiveness Index

Competitive Analysis Main Logo.JPG

In 2010, we created a Competitiveness Index to know which states have the most competitive electoral environment and which states have the least competitive electoral environments in 2012. Three factors

  1. Does incumbent run for re-election?
  2. If so, does incumbent face a primary?
  3. Are there two major party candidates on the ballot?

Scored on a 0-100 scale, with 0 being least competitive and 100 being most competitive.

Overall Comparison between years
2007 2009 2010 2011 2012
Competitiveness Index 29.9 34.1 36.2 31.9 35.8
% Open Seats 13.7% 10.5% 18.6% 18.2% 21.2%
% Inc that did face primary 22.7% 18.6% 22.7% 20.1% 24.6%
% Candidates that did face major party opp 53.3% 73.3% 67.3% 57.4% 61.7%
Inc with at least one opponent 57.8% 70.2% 74.0% 49.9% Pending

Top 5 in 2010 vs. Top 5 in 2012

2010

  1. New Hampshire
  2. Michigan
  3. Arizona
  4. Nevada
  5. Maryland

2012

  1. California
  2. Michigan
  3. New Hampshire
  4. Idaho
  5. Nebraska

General Election

  • 61.7% of all 6,015 races have two major party candidates in the general election
Democratic Party 231 Senate Democrats face no major party opposition in the general election
Republican Party 268 Senate Republicans face no major party opposition in the general election
Democratic Party 897 House Democrats face no major party opposition in the general election
Republican Party 905 House Republicans face no major party opposition in the general election
  • First election after redistricting
    • Kentucky Maine, Montana and Pennsylvania elections will use old redistricting maps

Possible flipping chambers

Senates

  • 14 Chambers

Currently Split

  • Alaska Senate

Democratic to Republican

  • Arkansas Senate
  • Colorado Senate
  • Iowa Senate
  • Nevada Senate
  • New Mexico Senate
  • Oregon Senate
  • Washington Senate
  • Wisconsin Senate

Republican to Democratic

  • Maine Senate
  • Minnesota Senate
  • New York Senate
  • New Hampshire Senate
  • Pennsylvania Senate

Houses

  • 13 Chambers

Currently Split

  • Oregon House

Democratic to Republican

  • Arkansas House
  • Kentucky House
  • Nevada House
  • New Mexico House

Republican to Democratic

  • Alaska House
  • Colorado House
  • Iowa House
  • Maine House
  • Minnesota House
  • Michigan House
  • New Hampshire House
  • Pennsylvania House

Maps

Updated Partisan Control of State Senates and Houses Prior to 2012 elections
  • State Senates as of prior to the 2012 election.

    State Senates as of prior to the 2012 election.

  • State Houses as of prior to the 2012 election.

    State Houses as of prior to the 2012 election.




Questions to be answered

Everyone will be paying attention to presidential and congressional races, but we will gauge the down-ballot question: Will one party appear to have a better night in state legislatures?

  1. Notably, will any chambers flip party control?
  2. Will Republicans hold onto gains from 2010? Or will Democrats take back some of those swing districts lost two years ago?
  3. Which party performs better in open seats?
  4. How do incumbents perform in the general election?
  5. What impact did redistricting have on the outcomes?

Election night plan

Ballotpedia will be releasing results of the election that night and the following day, including:

  • Chambers that change party control
  • Number of incumbents defeated
  • Number of open seats won by party
  • Number of new legislators
  • Trends or connections between other ticket elections and legislative results
  • We'll also have results for Congressional, State Executive, State and Local Ballot Measures

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