Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Arizona Congressional Seats
November 2, 2012
By Ballotpedia's Congressional team
| Arizona's Congressional Elections in 2012 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate Election? | U.S. House seats | Possible competitive races? | |
| Yes | 9 | 3 | |
PHOENIX: Arizona: Arizona has nine U.S. House seats on the ballot in 2012. Arizona gained one district due to the redistricting following the 2010 census. Seven of eight incumbents are seeking re-election, and all seven face at least one challenger in the general election (100%).
Currently, the Republican Party holds five of the eight Congressional seats from Arizona. According to the website RealClearPolitics, Arizona's 1st Congressional District is the 12th most likely district to flip in 2012.[1]
In Arizona, all polling places are open from 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM, Mountain Time.[2]
See also: State Poll Opening and Closing Times (2012)
U.S. Senate
Arizona has one U.S. Senate seat on the ballot in 2012. Republican and favorite in the race Jeff Flake faces Richard Carmona (D) in the general election. An analysis of 2012 Senate elections published by The New York Times rated the Arizona Senate race as leaning Republican.[3] Republicans say that they still feel optimistic about the race, but Flake is being outspent and polls have shown a tight race. What once is expected to be an easy Republican victory is now likely to be a close race to the finish.[4][4]
| State | General Election Candidates | Incumbent | 2012 Winner | Partisan Switch? |
| Arizona Class 1 Senate seat |  Richard Carmona Jeff Flake Marc Victor Ian Gilyeat |
Jon Kyl | Pending | Pending |
U.S. House
Three of Arizona's nine districts are considered to be competitive in 2012 according to the New York Times race ratings. Those are the 1st, 2nd and 9th districts.[5]
Arizona's 1st Congressional District is considered to be a toss-up. Former Democratic representative Ann Kirkpatrick faces Republican Jonathan Paton. The seat is open after current incumbent Paul Gosar opted to run for re-election in the 4th District. Kim Allen is also running in the district as a Libertarian write-in candidate.
Arizona's 2nd Congressional District is also considered to be a toss-up according to the New York Times race ratings. Newly elected Democratic incumbent Ron Barber faces a challenge from Republican Martha McSally in the general election. The district has always been a battleground between moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans, and the district has become slightly more Democratic since Barber's victory in the special election to replace Gabrielle Giffords. Anthony Powell is also running as a Libertarian write-in candidate.
Arizona's 9th Congressional District is considered to be Leaning Democratic. Redistricting left Republicans unhappy about the new 9th District, located in East Phoenix, Tempe and parts of Scottsdale, a relatively safe pickup for Democrats. Meanwhile, Republican incumbents David Schweikert and Benjamin Quayle were forced to battle each other in the 6th District.[6] Democrat Kyrsten Sinema faces Vernon Parker (R) in the general election. Powell Gammill is also running as a Libertarian candidate.
Here is a complete list of U.S. House candidates appearing on the general election ballot in Arizona:
Candidates running by District
| District | General Election Candidates | Incumbent | 2012 Winner | Partisan Switch? |
| 1st | Ann Kirkpatrick Jonathan Paton Kim Allen |
Paul Gosar | Pending | Pending |
| 2nd | Ron Barber Martha McSally Anthony Powell (Write-in) |
Trent Franks | Pending | Pending |
| 3rd | Raul Grijalva Gabriela Saucedo Mercer Blanca Guerra |
Benjamin Quayle | Pending | Pending |
| 4th | Johnnie Robinson Paul Gosar Joe Pamelia Richard Grayson |
Ed Pastor | Pending | Pending |
| 5th | Morgan Spencer Matt Salmon |
David Schweikert | Pending | Pending |
| 6th | Matt Jette David Schweikert Jack Anderson Mark Salazar |
Jeff Flake | Pending | Pending |
| 7th | Ed Pastor Scott Fistler Joe Cobb |
Raul Grijalva | Pending | Pending |
| 8th | Gene Scharer Trent Franks Stephen Dolgos |
Ron Barber | Pending | Pending |
| 9th | Kyrsten Sinema Vernon Parker Powell Gammill |
N/A | Pending | Pending |
Partisan breakdown by district
| Members of the U.S. House from Arizona -- Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2012 | After the 2012 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 3 | 5 | |
| Republican Party | 5 | 4 | |
| Total | 8 | 9 | |
Comparison of new and old redistricting maps
| Congressional Redistricting Map
For more information, view Redistricting in Arizona. |
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Articles
- 2012 elections review: Results not yet final in Arizona legislative primaries August 29
- 2012 elections preview: Arizona voters to select winners in congressional, legislative primaries August 27
See also
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Arizona State Legislature
- Ballotpedia:2012 general election preview articles
- November 6, 2012 election results
- United States Congressional election results, 2012
- United States Senate elections in Arizona, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2012
- Arizona's 1st Congressional District elections, 2012
- Arizona's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2012
- Arizona's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2012
- Arizona's 4th Congressional District elections, 2012
- Arizona's 5th Congressional District elections, 2012
- Arizona's 6th Congressional District elections, 2012
- Arizona's 7th Congressional District elections, 2012
- Arizona's 8th Congressional District elections, 2012
- Arizona's 9th Congressional District elections, 2012
- Arizona elections, 2012
- National contested primary average during the 2012 U.S. congressional elections
Footnotes
- ↑ RealClearPolitics, "Election 2012: Senate, House & Governor Races," accessed October 5, 2012
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "Poll Times," accessed August 2012
- ↑ The New York Times, "2012 Senate race ratings," accessed September 17, 2012
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Politico, "NRSC going up in Arizona," October 4, 2012
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed July 25, 2012
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 7, 2012
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