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PredictIt markets in the 2020 presidential election
Date: November 3, 2020 |
 Donald Trump Joe Biden Howie Hawkins Jo Jorgensen
|
Candidates on the issues • Battleground states • Electoral College • Pivot Counties |
September 29 debate • October 7 debate • October 15 debate • October 22 debate • Democratic debates |
Democratic • Republican • Libertarian • Green • Constitution |
2028 • 2024 • 2020 • 2016 |
This page provides an overview of PredictIt markets relating to the 2020 presidential election. Charts show the state of each market with data updated every 60 seconds. The following charts are available on this page and PredictIt.org:
What is a PredictIt market?
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. For instance, an election contested between four candidates would be represented by eight separate contracts, with each contract correlating to a particular candidate winning or losing the election.
The price of a share in each individual contract rises and falls based on market demand. Once the event's outcome is decided, holders of shares that correlate with the correct outcome receive a $1 payout for each share they held.
For example, a user buys 10 shares at 20 cents each in a presidential primary saying Candidate A will win. If Candidate A wins the election, the user earns $10. If the candidate loses, the user earns no money and loses his original $2 investment.
Why do PredictIt markets matter?
Services such as PredictIt are being used to gain insight into the likely outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argues that they are better suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer."[1][2][3]
General election markets
- See also: Presidential candidates, 2020
Overall
The chart below shows PredictIt share prices for the outcome of the 2020 presidential election from September 20, 2020, through November 3, 2020. Individuals who registered above $0.01 during this timeframe are included in the chart below.
Battleground states
Democratic presidential primary markets
- See also: Democratic presidential nomination, 2020
Democratic nomination
Republican presidential primary markets
- See also: Republican presidential nomination, 2020
Background
PredictIt was created by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, for educational purposes in 2014. U.S.-based company Aristotle International supports the project with data processing and verification services.[4][5]
The Washington Post reported that PredictIt spokesman Will Jennings said the site was accurate 70 to 80 percent of the time, although it was difficult to make a “blanket accuracy assessment, given the variety of markets." In November 2019, the site had 200,000 subscribers and 3,000 active traders each day.[6]
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2020
- Democratic presidential nomination, 2020
- Republican presidential nomination, 2020
Footnotes
- ↑ Nature, "The power of prediction markets," October 18, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Presidential General Election Results, "2008 Electoral Map Based on the Intrade Prediction Market," accessed January 25, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014
- ↑ PredictIt, "What is PredictIt?" accessed August 28, 2020
- ↑ <https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/these-gamblers-are-putting-money-on-the-outcome-of-the-impeachment-inquiry/2019/11/13/da535bee-f0f6-11e9-b648-76bcf86eb67e_story.html The Washington Post, "These gamblers are putting money on the outcome of the impeachment inquiry," November 13, 2019]
