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Daily Brew: February 21, 2019

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February 21, 2019

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Today's Brew highlights how Pivot Counties voted in last year’s state legislative elections + a summary of Tuesday’s election results  
The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Thursday, February 21 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. Results of pivot counties in 2018 state legislative elections
  2. Results of Tuesday’s elections in Wisconsin and Virginia
  3. A look back at Wisconsin’s 2018 state Supreme Court primary

Results of pivot counties in 2018 state legislative elections

In yesterday’s Daily Brew, I discussed how Pivot Counties - those that voted for Barack Obama (D) in both 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016 - voted in the 2018 U.S. House elections. Today, I’ll look at how those counties voted in state legislative elections.

Last November, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections for 6,073 seats. Of those, 453 state house districts and 138 state senate districts intersected with pivot counties. This includes districts that intersected with only small portions of a county as well as districts that overlapped with multiple counties. These 591 state legislative districts accounted for approximately 10 percent of all state legislative districts up for election in 2018.

Heading into the election, the partisan breakdown of those 591 districts was 340 Republican, 232 Democrat, 18 districts were split between the parties, and one was held by an independent. After the election, the partisan breakdown of these districts was 325 Republican, 251 Democrat, 12 districts were split between the parties, and three were held by independents.

Fourteen state senate districts that intersect with pivot counties switched partisan control in the 2018 elections, resulting in a net change of six seats in favor of Democrats. Among those, 10 districts flipped from Republican to Democrat, while four flipped from Democrat to Republican.

Among the state house districts that intersect with Pivot Counties, 57 switched partisan control in the 2018 elections, resulting in a net change of 13 seats in favor of Democrats. The most common changes were:

  • Republican to Democrat: 21 districts
  • Democrat to Republican: 16 districts
  • Split districts to all-Democrats: 10 districts
  • The other changes in these districts generally resulted from changes in the partisan composition of multi-member districts in New Hampshire, South Dakota, and Washington.

Compared to all districts, fewer state legislative districts that intersect with a pivot county changed party in the 2018 elections. In total, Democrats won a net total of 19 state legislative seats in those districts, which represents 3.2 percent of the total they controlled before the elections. Nationally, the party gained 308 seats or 9.7 percent of the number of seats held going into the elections. Meanwhile, Republicans lost control of 3.3 percent of the districts they controlled that intersected with pivot counties, while in total they lost 7.2 percent of their seats held nationwide. Those numbers are not the exact inverse of each other due to seats held by independents and members of third parties.

Across the country, Democrats gained control of six state legislative chambers from Republicans in 2018, while losing one chamber, the Alaska House of Representatives, to a power-sharing agreement.

The current partisan breakdown of state legislative chambers is 61 Republican, 37 Democrat, and the Alaska House of Representatives is under split control.

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Results of Tuesday’s elections in Wisconsin and Virginia

Municipalities across Wisconsin held primaries on Tuesday for any offices that attracted more than two candidates per seat. The top-two finishers in those primaries advanced to general elections that will be held on April 2. In addition, Tuesday also saw a state legislative special election in the House of Delegates in Virginia.

In Madison, Wisconsin, primary elections were held for mayor, four common council seats, and three school board seats. Of those races, only the mayor and one school board seat featured incumbents running for re-election. Mayor Paul Soglin, who has held that office for 22 of the last 40 years, faced four challengers in the primary. He received 28.6 percent of the vote and advanced to the general election along with former common council member Satya Rhodes-Conway, who received 27.7 percent, according to unofficial election night results.

Incumbent TJ Mertz finished second in the primary for his seat on the Madison Metropolitan School District Board of Education and advanced to the general election against Ananda Mirilli, who was first with 52.1 percent of the vote.

In Milwaukee, a primary narrowed the field from three candidates to two for an open seat on the board of education for Milwaukee Public Schools. Out of the five school board seats up for election on April 2, only one features an incumbent running for re-election.

A recall election removed both the president and the board clerk of the Flambeau School District Board of Education. The two members were targeted for recall due to disrespectful comments, and a similar recall against the two was also initiated in 2018 but did not make the ballot. The two residents who filed the recall petitions won the elections to replace them.

In Virginia, Democrat Ibraheem Samirah won a special election for the District 86 seat in the Virginia House of Delegates with 59.5 percent of the vote, according to unofficial election night results. He defeated Republican Gregg Nelson and independent candidate Connie Haines Hutchinson. Samirah and Nelson were selected through firehouse primaries administered by each political party. The seat became vacant after Jennifer Boysko (D) won a special election for the District 33 seat in the Virginia State Senate on January 8. In 2017, Boysko won re-election to the District 86 seat, taking 68.6 percent of the vote. Samirah’s election returns the partisan composition of the Virginia House of Delegates to 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats.

Virginia currently has a divided government, as the governor is a Democrat, but both chambers of the state legislature are held by Republican majorities.

A look back at Wisconsin’s 2018 state Supreme Court primary

Speaking of the Badger State, yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of Wisconsin's nonpartisan primary election for a seat on the state Supreme Court. Sauk County Circuit Judge Michael Screnock and Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Rebecca Dallet placed first and second in the primary, respectively, and advanced to the March 20 general election. Attorney Tim Burns placed third and was eliminated.

Although state Supreme Court elections in Wisconsin are nonpartisan, liberal and conservative groups typically coalesce around specific candidates. Incumbent Michael Gableman, a member of the court's 5-2 conservative majority, did not seek re-election in 2018. Both Dallet and Burns ran with the support of Democratic Party-aligned groups, while Screnock ran with the support of Republican Party-aligned groups.

Dallet went on to beat Screnock in the April 3, 2018 election by a margin of 11 percentage points.

One election that wasn’t on the ballot in Wisconsin yesterday was this year’s Supreme Court race because only two candidates filed. The race will take place on April 2, 2019, between Appeals Judge Brian Hagedorn and Appeals Chief Judge Lisa Neubauer. Conservative-aligned groups in the state back Hagedorn and liberal-aligned groups back Neubauer.

Incumbent Justice Shirley Abrahamson, who was appointed to the court by a Democratic governor in 1976, is not seeking re-election. If conservatives win this seat, it will expand their majority on the court to 5-2. If liberals retain Abrahamson’s seat, it will set up a battle for control of the court in 2020, when Dan Kelly, who was appointed to the court in 2016 by Gov. Scott Walker (R), will stand for election for the first time.


See also

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