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Daily Brew: February 20, 2019

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February 20, 2019

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Today’s Brew shows how pivot counties voted in 2018 U.S. House elections, highlights upcoming special congressional elections, and breaks down some ballot terminology.

  
The Daily Brew

Welcome to the Thursday, February 20 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

  1. How the Obama-Obama-Trump pivot counties voted in 2018 U.S. House elections
  2. Roundup of special elections scheduled for the 116th Congress
  3. Know your terms: candidate withdrawal or disqualification?

Obama-Obama-Trump pivot counties in 2018 U.S. House elections

There are 206 pivot counties in the country—those that voted for Barack Obama (D) in both 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016.

What happened in those counties in the 2018 elections for the U.S. House?

Democratic U.S. House candidates won 113 (55 percent) pivot counties and Republican candidates won 93.

Overall, Democratic candidates won by an average 12.3 point margin while Republican candidates won their counties by an average 10.1 point margin.

In counties won by a Democrat, the Republican candidate's share of the vote was an average 21 percentage points lower than Trump's in 2016. In counties where a Republican candidate won, their share of the vote was an average 6.9 percentage points lower than Trump's in 2016.

Twelve congressional districts that intersect with a pivot county changed party control in 2018: 10 from Republican to Democratic, and two from Democratic to Republican.

 Those districts were:

  1. Republican to Democrat: FL-26, IA-1, IA-3, ME-2, MN-2, NJ-2, NM-2, NY-19, NY-22, SC-1.
  2. Democrat to Republican: MN-1, MN-8.

 Across all 435 districts, Democrats gained a net of 40 seats, meaning Republicans lost 17 percent of the seats they had held. In the 203 districts that contain pivot counties, Democrats gained a net of eight seats, meaning Republicans lost 12 percent of those districts they had held.

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It's not too late to join us for our webinar previewing Chicago's elections.

Special elections to the 116th Congress: What's coming up

So far, two special elections have been scheduled for the 116th Congress: one for Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District and another for one of Arizona's U.S. Senate seats. Another will be scheduled for North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District.

Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District: A special election to fill the vacant U.S. House seat will be held on May 21, 2019. The vacancy occurred following the resignation of former Rep. Tom Marino (R) on Jan. 23. Marino won the Nov. 6, 2018, election with 66 percent support.

Rather than hold a primary, party committees are nominating their candidates for the race. On Feb. 12, the Democratic Party nominated Marc Friedenberg as its candidate. Republican Party delegates are scheduled to choose their nominee on March 2.

U.S. Senate seat from Arizona: On November 3, 2020, there will be a special election to fill the rest of the 2017-2022 term that John McCain (R) was elected to in 2016. McCain died on August 25, 2018.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) first appointed Jon Kyl (R) to fill the seat until the special election winner takes office, and Kyl resigned on Dec. 18, 2018. Ducey then appointed Martha McSally (R). The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of McCain's term, ending January 2023.

North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District: North Carolina's 3rd District Rep. Walter Jones (R) died on Feb. 10. Walter was unopposed in the 2018 election. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) must schedule a special election for the seat. Dates have not yet been set.

Ahead of the special elections, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate, and Democrats hold a 235-199 majority in the U.S. House (with one race, for North Carolina's 9th, undecided).

There were 17 special elections called to fill vacancies in the 115th Congress in 2017 and 2018. Nine Republicans and eight Democrats won those elections. Four races resulted in a partisan flip from a Republican to Democratic officeholder.

Know your terms: candidate withdrawal or disqualification?

Candidates don't always make it on to the final ballot, but that can happen for different reasons.

What do you call it when a candidate drops out from a race? Ballotpedia uses the term withdrew when a person announces a candidacy or files for an election but later decides—by his or her own choice—not to appear on the final ballot. Candidates often withdraw informally by suspending their campaigns, but they may still appear on the ballot if they do not officially withdraw through the election authority.

What do you call it when a candidate is removed from the ballot? Ballotpedia uses the term disqualified when a person announces a candidacy or files for an election, but another entity—such as a court, election authority, or political party—prevents him or her from appearing on the final ballot.

Do you know your election terms? Learn more of them today with the Ballotpedia glossary!


See also

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