Pivot counties: How Obama-Obama-Trump counties voted in the 2018 U.S. House elections
Last updated: May 15, 2020
There are 206 pivot counties in the country: those that voted for Barack Obama (D) in both 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Thus, they voted Republican in 2016 after voting Democrat in 2008 and 2012. A small number of these counties could be considered bellwethers in modern elections. These counties are sometimes referred to as swing counties by media and political observers.
What happened in those counties in the 2018 elections?
Democratic U.S. House candidates won 113 (55 percent) of the pivot counties in 2018. Republican candidates won 93. In one other race, for North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, the state Board of Elections did not certify the election results and voted unanimously to call for a new election. In 184 pivot counties, the Republican U.S. House candidate had either a lesser margin of victory than Trump did in 2016 or lost the county to the Democratic U.S. House candidate.
Across all 435 districts, Republicans lost a net of 40 of their 235 seats (17 percent). In the 99 districts that intersected pivot counties at the time of the 2018 elections, Republicans lost a net eight of their 63 seats (13 percent).[1]
Twelve districts that intersected with a pivot county changed partisan hands in 2018: 10 from Republican to Democratic, and two from Democratic to Republican. Following the election, Republicans controlled 54 seats and Democrats controlled 44 seats, for a total net change of eight seats in favor of Democrats.
This page includes:
- Data on how pivot counties voted in 2018 Congressional elections
- Election results from 2012 to 2018 in each of the 105 Congressional districts that intersect a pivot county.
For further analysis of pivot counties in the 2018 elections, see:
- Pivot counties: How Obama-Obama-Trump counties voted in the 2018 state legislative elections
- Reverse pivot counties: How McCain-Romney-Clinton counties voted in the 2018 U.S. House elections
The following map displays 2018 U.S. House results in pivot counties:
Results by county
Democratic candidates won 113 of the 2016 pivot counties in the 2018 Congressional elections, while Republican candidates won 93 of the counties. Those Democratic candidates won by an average of 3,115 votes and had a margin of victory of 12.3 percent, while Republican candidates won their counties by an average of 1,705 votes and a margin of victory of 10.1 percent. In counties where a Democratic candidate won, the Republican candidate performed worse than Trump's 2016 numbers by an average of 21 percent. In counties where a Republican candidate won, they underperformed Trump's 2016 numbers by an average of 6.9 percent.
Pivot counties in the 2018 Congressional elections | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Counties Won | Average MoV # | Average MoV % | Average Change 16-18 | Median MoV # | Median MoV % | Median Change 16-18 | ||
![]() |
113 | 3,115 | 12.3% | -21.0% | 1,360 | 9.2% | -18.1% | ||
![]() |
93 | 1,705 | 10.1% | -6.88% | 707 | 8.1% | -5.6% |
The table below shows how each pivot county voted for U.S. House candidates in 2018, including the party it voted for, the number of total votes of the margin of victory, the margin of victory percentage, and the change in the margin of victory percentage from 2016 to 2018. A positive number in the 2016 to 2018 change in the margin of victory percentage means that the Republican U.S. House candidate in 2018 overperformed compared to Trump in 2016. A negative number indicates that the Republican U.S. House candidate performed worse than Trump in 2016.
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Click [show] below to view the full data for all 206 pivot counties in the 2018 elections.
Pivot counties in the 2018 Congressional elections | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | State | 2008 Obama MoV | 2012 Obama MoV | 2016 Trump MoV | 2018 U.S. House Party Winner | 2018 MoV (# of Votes) | 2018 MoV (%) | MoV +/- Change 2016 to 2018 | Better MoV than Trump? |
Woodruff County | Arkansas | 7.5% | 4.2% | 8.9% | ![]() |
379 | 18.3% | 9.3% | Yes |
Conejos County | Colorado | 12.9% | 9.2% | 3.6% | ![]() |
341 | 9.6% | 6.0% | Yes |
Huerfano County | Colorado | 11.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | ![]() |
126 | 3.5% | -3.1% | No |
Las Animas County | Colorado | 7.0% | 2.7% | 15.6% | ![]() |
232 | 3.7% | -11.9% | No |
Pueblo County | Colorado | 15.0% | 14.0% | 0.5% | ![]() |
1,246 | 1.9% | 1.4% | Yes |
Windham County | Connecticut | 14.7% | 13.3% | 7.8% | ![]() |
8,090 | 19.5% | -27.2% | No |
Kent County | Delaware | 9.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | ![]() |
8,606 | 14.9% | -19.8% | No |
Jefferson County | Florida | 3.7% | 1.8% | 5.1% | ![]() |
151 | 2.1% | -7.1% | No |
Monroe County | Florida | 4.9% | 0.4% | 6.8% | ![]() |
2,636 | 7.3% | 0.5% | Yes |
Pinellas County | Florida | 8.3% | 5.7% | 1.1% | ![]() |
32,812 | 7.6% | -8.7% | No |
St. Lucie County | Florida | 12.1% | 7.9% | 2.4% | ![]() |
636 | 0.5% | -2.9% | No |
Baker County | Georgia | 1.1% | 0.6% | 8.7% | ![]() |
43 | 3.4% | -12.1% | No |
Dooly County | Georgia | 3.5% | 7.0% | 2.1% | ![]() |
372 | 10.1% | -12.2% | No |
Peach County | Georgia | 6.8% | 7.5% | 2.9% | ![]() |
25 | 0.2% | -3.2% | No |
Quitman County | Georgia | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | ![]() |
16 | 1.8% | -12.7% | No |
Twiggs County | Georgia | 7.0% | 8.6% | 1.6% | ![]() |
2,597 | 100.0% | -101.6% | No |
Alexander County | Illinois | 12.6% | 13.7% | 8.3% | ![]() |
15 | 0.7% | -9.0% | No |
Carroll County | Illinois | 4.8% | 1.5% | 26.7% | ![]() |
371 | 6.2% | -32.9% | No |
Fulton County | Illinois | 21.3% | 11.0% | 14.9% | ![]() |
3,151 | 25.0% | -40.0% | No |
Henderson County | Illinois | 17.7% | 12.3% | 28.4% | ![]() |
108 | 4.1% | -32.5% | No |
Henry County | Illinois | 7.7% | 3.1% | 21.0% | ![]() |
1,374 | 7.1% | -28.1% | No |
Jo Daviess County | Illinois | 10.5% | 1.2% | 14.6% | ![]() |
987 | 10.7% | -25.3% | No |
Knox County | Illinois | 19.9% | 17.4% | 2.9% | ![]() |
4,532 | 25.4% | -28.3% | No |
Mercer County | Illinois | 11.9% | 7.4% | 20.4% | ![]() |
930 | 13.3% | -33.6% | No |
Putnam County | Illinois | 15.6% | 1.8% | 19.9% | ![]() |
393 | 15.2% | -4.7% | No |
Warren County | Illinois | 8.1% | 5.5% | 16.5% | ![]() |
604 | 9.9% | -26.4% | No |
Whiteside County | Illinois | 17.6% | 17.0% | 6.2% | ![]() |
5,086 | 23.8% | -29.9% | No |
Delaware County | Indiana | 15.0% | 3.1% | 13.4% | ![]() |
408 | 1.1% | -14.5% | No |
LaPorte County | Indiana | 22.0% | 12.6% | 6.3% | ![]() |
4,710 | 12.8% | -19.1% | No |
Perry County | Indiana | 22.8% | 11.6% | 18.6% | ![]() |
795 | 11.3% | -7.3% | No |
Porter County | Indiana | 7.2% | 3.9% | 6.6% | ![]() |
11,110 | 17.2% | -23.8% | No |
Vigo County | Indiana | 15.8% | 0.9% | 15.0% | ![]() |
3,732 | 11.9% | -3.1% | No |
Allamakee County | Iowa | 14.3% | 4.2% | 24.2% | ![]() |
720 | 12.7% | -11.4% | No |
Boone County | Iowa | 7.6% | 6.6% | 13.7% | ![]() |
1,003 | 8.3% | -22.0% | No |
Bremer County | Iowa | 9.3% | 2.7% | 13.7% | ![]() |
726 | 6.4% | -7.3% | No |
Buchanan County | Iowa | 18.5% | 13.9% | 15.0% | ![]() |
189 | 2.2% | -12.8% | No |
Cedar County | Iowa | 9.6% | 4.6% | 17.8% | ![]() |
373 | 4.6% | -22.4% | No |
Cerro Gordo County | Iowa | 20.8% | 13.4% | 7.7% | ![]() |
3,068 | 16.2% | -23.9% | No |
Chickasaw County | Iowa | 20.7% | 11.1% | 22.9% | ![]() |
326 | 6.3% | -16.7% | No |
Clarke County | Iowa | 2.3% | 1.5% | 28.0% | ![]() |
414 | 11.5% | -16.6% | No |
Clayton County | Iowa | 17.2% | 7.0% | 22.8% | ![]() |
1,009 | 12.8% | -10.0% | No |
Clinton County | Iowa | 23.0% | 22.8% | 5.1% | ![]() |
2,139 | 11.9% | -17.0% | No |
Des Moines County | Iowa | 23.0% | 18.4% | 6.9% | ![]() |
2,408 | 16.0% | -22.9% | No |
Dubuque County | Iowa | 20.8% | 14.7% | 1.2% | ![]() |
3,077 | 7.2% | -8.4% | No |
Fayette County | Iowa | 16.6% | 12.0% | 19.4% | ![]() |
466 | 5.7% | -13.7% | No |
Floyd County | Iowa | 21.9% | 14.6% | 14.8% | ![]() |
364 | 5.8% | -20.7% | No |
Howard County | Iowa | 25.8% | 21.0% | 20.5% | ![]() |
291 | 8.1% | -12.4% | No |
Jackson County | Iowa | 24.4% | 16.9% | 19.3% | ![]() |
686 | 8.1% | -11.2% | No |
Jasper County | Iowa | 7.5% | 7.1% | 18.1% | ![]() |
103 | 0.7% | -17.5% | No |
Jefferson County | Iowa | 20.2% | 16.0% | 0.5% | ![]() |
1,557 | 22.2% | -22.6% | No |
Jones County | Iowa | 10.4% | 7.8% | 19.1% | ![]() |
703 | 8.2% | -10.9% | No |
Lee County | Iowa | 16.0% | 15.5% | 16.0% | ![]() |
937 | 7.5% | -23.6% | No |
Louisa County | Iowa | 4.3% | 0.6% | 28.4% | ![]() |
352 | 9.3% | -19.1% | No |
Marshall County | Iowa | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | ![]() |
513 | 3.6% | -4.7% | No |
Mitchell County | Iowa | 12.3% | 3.4% | 24.0% | ![]() |
682 | 15.2% | -8.9% | No |
Muscatine County | Iowa | 15.6% | 15.9% | 6.3% | ![]() |
1,228 | 8.3% | -14.6% | No |
Poweshiek County | Iowa | 11.8% | 9.4% | 6.5% | ![]() |
78 | 1.0% | -5.6% | No |
Tama County | Iowa | 12.2% | 7.4% | 20.3% | ![]() |
523 | 7.2% | -13.1% | No |
Union County | Iowa | 3.7% | 3.9% | 27.5% | ![]() |
1,213 | 25.0% | -2.5% | No |
Wapello County | Iowa | 13.5% | 11.9% | 20.6% | ![]() |
606 | 5.4% | -26.0% | No |
Webster County | Iowa | 8.5% | 5.8% | 21.5% | ![]() |
212 | 1.5% | -23.0% | No |
Winneshiek County | Iowa | 22.7% | 14.7% | 0.8% | ![]() |
738 | 7.5% | -8.3% | No |
Worth County | Iowa | 22.4% | 14.5% | 21.7% | ![]() |
336 | 9.6% | -12.1% | No |
Elliott County | Kentucky | 25.2% | 2.5% | 44.1% | ![]() |
161 | 9.1% | -35.0% | No |
Androscoggin County | Maine | 15.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | ![]() |
913 | 2.0% | -11.4% | No |
Aroostook County | Maine | 9.6% | 7.6% | 17.2% | ![]() |
3,272 | 12.0% | -5.2% | No |
Franklin County | Maine | 20.3% | 18.4% | 5.5% | ![]() |
856 | 6.1% | -11.6% | No |
Kennebec County | Maine | 14.8% | 13.5% | 3.6% | ![]() |
5,262 | 15.8% | -19.3% | No |
Oxford County | Maine | 16.0% | 14.7% | 12.9% | ![]() |
315 | 1.2% | -11.7% | No |
Penobscot County | Maine | 5.1% | 2.9% | 10.9% | ![]() |
2,119 | 3.3% | -7.6% | No |
Somerset County | Maine | 5.7% | 1.7% | 22.7% | ![]() |
2,718 | 13.0% | -9.7% | No |
Washington County | Maine | 1.0% | 1.6% | 18.4% | ![]() |
790 | 6.0% | -12.4% | No |
Bay County | Michigan | 15.3% | 5.6% | 12.6% | ![]() |
5,946 | 13.0% | -25.6% | No |
Calhoun County | Michigan | 9.4% | 1.6% | 12.5% | ![]() |
5,773 | 11.8% | -0.7% | No |
Eaton County | Michigan | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.7% | ![]() |
1,834 | 3.7% | -8.4% | No |
Gogebic County | Michigan | 17.3% | 8.1% | 14.8% | ![]() |
138 | 2.1% | -12.7% | No |
Isabella County | Michigan | 19.3% | 9.3% | 3.7% | ![]() |
993 | 4.5% | 0.9% | Yes |
Lake County | Michigan | 12.3% | 5.0% | 22.8% | ![]() |
963 | 20.8% | -1.9% | No |
Macomb County | Michigan | 8.6% | 4.0% | 11.5% | ![]() |
1,863 | 0.5% | -12.1% | No |
Manistee County | Michigan | 13.3% | 5.9% | 15.3% | ![]() |
1,077 | 9.3% | -6.0% | No |
Monroe County | Michigan | 4.4% | 1.0% | 22.0% | ![]() |
7,486 | 12.3% | -9.6% | No |
Saginaw County | Michigan | 17.3% | 11.9% | 1.1% | ![]() |
2,914 | 3.7% | -4.8% | No |
Shiawassee County | Michigan | 8.6% | 3.7% | 19.6% | ![]() |
5,382 | 18.5% | -1.1% | No |
Van Buren County | Michigan | 8.8% | 0.5% | 13.9% | ![]() |
2,530 | 8.6% | -5.3% | No |
Beltrami County | Minnesota | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | ![]() |
1,566 | 8.8% | -18.5% | No |
Blue Earth County | Minnesota | 13.0% | 9.5% | 3.7% | ![]() |
4,025 | 14.4% | -18.1% | No |
Chippewa County | Minnesota | 5.9% | 1.9% | 28.7% | ![]() |
703 | 12.7% | -41.4% | No |
Clay County | Minnesota | 16.0% | 7.9% | 2.0% | ![]() |
8,383 | 34.5% | -36.5% | No |
Fillmore County | Minnesota | 8.3% | 7.3% | 21.7% | ![]() |
597 | 6.2% | -15.5% | No |
Freeborn County | Minnesota | 17.1% | 14.1% | 17.2% | ![]() |
205 | 1.5% | -15.8% | No |
Houston County | Minnesota | 10.7% | 3.2% | 13.9% | ![]() |
116 | 1.3% | -12.6% | No |
Itasca County | Minnesota | 12.9% | 9.8% | 16.4% | ![]() |
1,257 | 5.8% | -10.5% | No |
Kittson County | Minnesota | 18.5% | 6.0% | 22.1% | ![]() |
673 | 28.6% | -50.6% | No |
Koochiching County | Minnesota | 10.1% | 9.5% | 19.9% | ![]() |
245 | 4.7% | -15.2% | No |
Lac qui Parle County | Minnesota | 5.9% | 0.9% | 25.6% | ![]() |
594 | 17.7% | -43.3% | No |
Mahnomen County | Minnesota | 25.3% | 18.6% | 2.9% | ![]() |
641 | 33.3% | -36.2% | No |
Mower County | Minnesota | 23.6% | 22.6% | 7.8% | ![]() |
1,187 | 8.2% | -16.0% | No |
Nicollet County | Minnesota | 10.5% | 7.8% | 3.0% | ![]() |
2,134 | 13.7% | -16.7% | No |
Norman County | Minnesota | 26.9% | 10.8% | 13.3% | ![]() |
1,001 | 36.9% | -50.2% | No |
Rice County | Minnesota | 11.5% | 8.3% | 3.1% | ![]() |
2,592 | 9.2% | -12.2% | No |
Swift County | Minnesota | 13.8% | 9.8% | 25.6% | ![]() |
580 | 14.4% | -39.9% | No |
Traverse County | Minnesota | 5.4% | 4.4% | 23.3% | ![]() |
266 | 17.5% | -40.8% | No |
Winona County | Minnesota | 19.1% | 12.9% | 2.9% | ![]() |
3,055 | 14.4% | -17.3% | No |
Chickasaw County | Mississippi | 2.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | ![]() |
827 | 13.9% | 7.8% | Yes |
Panola County | Mississippi | 6.5% | 8.6% | 0.1% | ![]() |
3,185 | 29.9% | -30.0% | No |
Blaine County | Montana | 19.2% | 15.3% | 2.5% | ![]() |
569 | 19.0% | -21.4% | No |
Hill County | Montana | 12.2% | 3.5% | 17.2% | ![]() |
481 | 7.5% | -24.7% | No |
Roosevelt County | Montana | 26.3% | 15.6% | 6.5% | ![]() |
389 | 11.3% | -17.8% | No |
Thurston County | Nebraska | 7.0% | 13.9% | 5.9% | ![]() |
117 | 6.4% | 0.5% | Yes |
Coos County | New Hampshire | 18.2% | 17.5% | 8.9% | ![]() |
1,037 | 9.2% | -18.1% | No |
Hillsborough County | New Hampshire | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | ![]() |
16,129 | 10.0% | -10.2% | No |
Sullivan County | New Hampshire | 17.9% | 13.3% | 2.6% | ![]() |
1,647 | 9.6% | -12.2% | No |
Gloucester County | New Jersey | 12.2% | 10.8% | 0.5% | ![]() |
11,512 | 10.3% | -10.8% | No |
Salem County | New Jersey | 3.9% | 1.3% | 15.0% | ![]() |
1,095 | 4.6% | -10.4% | No |
Colfax County | New Mexico | 10.7% | 2.2% | 8.6% | ![]() |
539 | 11.6% | -20.1% | No |
Hidalgo County | New Mexico | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | ![]() |
57 | 3.6% | -10.3% | No |
Valencia County | New Mexico | 7.7% | 2.5% | 8.6% | ![]() |
1,335 | 5.5% | -14.1% | No |
Broome County | New York | 8.0% | 5.3% | 2.0% | ![]() |
9,056 | 12.4% | -14.4% | No |
Cayuga County | New York | 8.5% | 11.4% | 11.6% | ![]() |
5,761 | 20.9% | 9.2% | Yes |
Cortland County | New York | 10.0% | 9.1% | 5.6% | ![]() |
1,868 | 11.2% | -16.8% | No |
Essex County | New York | 13.3% | 18.8% | 1.1% | ![]() |
161 | 1.1% | -2.3% | No |
Franklin County | New York | 22.2% | 26.1% | 5.5% | ![]() |
432 | 3.0% | -2.4% | No |
Madison County | New York | 0.9% | 0.9% | 14.2% | ![]() |
487 | 1.9% | -12.3% | No |
Niagara County | New York | 1.0% | 0.8% | 17.8% | ![]() |
4,752 | 6.7% | -24.4% | No |
Orange County | New York | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | ![]() |
10,414 | 8.7% | -14.2% | No |
Oswego County | New York | 2.4% | 7.9% | 22.0% | ![]() |
8,743 | 22.5% | 0.5% | Yes |
Otsego County | New York | 5.9% | 2.7% | 11.1% | ![]() |
109 | 0.5% | -11.6% | No |
Rennselaer County | New York | 9.3% | 12.2% | 1.4% | ![]() |
8,179 | 13.6% | -15.0% | No |
St. Lawrence County | New York | 16.3% | 16.7% | 8.8% | ![]() |
2,840 | 8.5% | -0.4% | No |
Saratoga County | New York | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | ![]() |
6,624 | 7.0% | -10.2% | No |
Seneca County | New York | 2.6% | 9.1% | 11.0% | ![]() |
707 | 6.1% | -4.9% | No |
Suffolk County | New York | 6.0% | 3.7% | 6.8% | ![]() |
3,390 | 0.6% | -7.5% | No |
Sullivan County | New York | 9.5% | 9.0% | 11.2% | ![]() |
201 | 0.8% | -10.4% | No |
Warren County | New York | 2.6% | 2.3% | 8.5% | ![]() |
843 | 3.2% | -5.3% | No |
Washington County | New York | 0.8% | 1.9% | 18.4% | ![]() |
3,481 | 16.9% | -1.5% | No |
Bladen County | North Carolina | 2.1% | 2.0% | 9.4% | ![]() |
798 | 6.2% | -3.2% | No |
Gates County | North Carolina | 5.2% | 4.1% | 9.1% | ![]() |
99 | 2.4% | -11.4% | No |
Granville County | North Carolina | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | ![]() |
403 | 1.9% | -4.4% | No |
Martin County | North Carolina | 4.6% | 4.7% | 0.4% | ![]() |
439 | 4.8% | -5.3% | No |
Richmond County | North Carolina | 1.5% | 3.0% | 9.7% | ![]() |
352 | 2.5% | -12.2% | No |
Robeson County | North Carolina | 13.8% | 17.4% | 4.3% | ![]() |
4,728 | 15.3% | -19.6% | No |
Benson County | North Dakota | 33.5% | 17.0% | 4.3% | ![]() |
316 | 14.1% | -18.4% | No |
Ransom County | North Dakota | 15.3% | 13.8% | 15.8% | ![]() |
35 | 1.5% | -17.3% | No |
Sargent County | North Dakota | 17.5% | 9.8% | 19.7% | ![]() |
31 | 1.6% | -18.2% | No |
Steele County | North Dakota | 20.4% | 1.9% | 17.7% | ![]() |
4 | 0.4% | -18.1% | No |
Ashtabula County | Ohio | 13.5% | 12.8% | 18.8% | ![]() |
5,303 | 16.5% | -2.3% | No |
Erie County | Ohio | 13.9% | 12.3% | 9.5% | ![]() |
2,299 | 7.6% | -17.1% | No |
Montgomery County | Ohio | 6.2% | 4.6% | 0.7% | ![]() |
15,113 | 7.3% | 6.6% | Yes |
Ottawa County | Ohio | 6.2% | 4.3% | 19.5% | ![]() |
2,187 | 11.9% | -7.6% | No |
Portage County | Ohio | 9.0% | 5.5% | 9.9% | ![]() |
370 | 0.6% | -10.5% | No |
Sandusky County | Ohio | 4.6% | 2.7% | 22.6% | ![]() |
4,424 | 20.2% | -2.4% | No |
Stark County | Ohio | 5.5% | 0.5% | 17.2% | ![]() |
11,185 | 8.1% | -9.1% | No |
Trumbull County | Ohio | 22.4% | 23.0% | 6.2% | ![]() |
8,097 | 10.8% | -17.0% | No |
Wood County | Ohio | 7.1% | 4.8% | 8.0% | ![]() |
6,113 | 12.2% | 4.3% | Yes |
Columbia County | Oregon | 12.0% | 5.2% | 11.5% | ![]() |
1,488 | 6.2% | -17.6% | No |
Tillamook County | Oregon | 9.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | ![]() |
1,084 | 8.4% | -14.0% | No |
Erie County | Pennsylvania | 19.9% | 16.0% | 1.6% | ![]() |
19,922 | 19.6% | -21.1% | No |
Luzerne County | Pennsylvania | 8.4% | 4.8% | 19.3% | ![]() |
367 | 0.3% | -19.0% | No |
Northampton County | Pennsylvania | 12.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | ![]() |
7,505 | 6.5% | -10.3% | No |
Kent County | Rhode Island | 17.4% | 17.7% | 0.7% | ![]() |
15,204 | 22.7% | -23.4% | No |
Barnwell County | South Carolina | 1.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | ![]() |
500 | 6.8% | 1.6% | Yes |
Calhoun County | South Carolina | 3.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | ![]() |
118 | 2.0% | -4.8% | No |
Chester County | South Carolina | 8.3% | 10.6% | 4.8% | ![]() |
514 | 4.7% | -0.1% | No |
Colleton County | South Carolina | 0.5% | 0.2% | 8.5% | ![]() |
252 | 1.9% | -6.6% | No |
McCormick County | South Carolina | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | ![]() |
271 | 6.1% | 2.8% | Yes |
Corson County | South Dakota | 21.5% | 11.1% | 4.5% | ![]() |
73 | 6.7% | -11.2% | No |
Day County | South Dakota | 12.9% | 6.2% | 23.8% | ![]() |
469 | 17.3% | -6.5% | No |
Marshall County | South Dakota | 16.5% | 8.7% | 15.5% | ![]() |
164 | 8.4% | -7.1% | No |
Roberts County | South Dakota | 19.6% | 9.8% | 15.5% | ![]() |
251 | 6.8% | -8.7% | No |
Ziebach County | South Dakota | 27.2% | 16.4% | 2.0% | ![]() |
77 | 9.7% | -11.6% | No |
Hardeman County | Tennessee | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | ![]() |
592 | 8.3% | 0.4% | Yes |
Jefferson County | Texas | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | ![]() |
804 | 1.1% | 0.6% | Yes |
Essex County | Vermont | 14.5% | 13.4% | 16.7% | ![]() |
148 | 6.8% | -23.4% | No |
Buckingham County | Virginia | 0.9% | 2.4% | 11.3% | ![]() |
626 | 10.3% | -1.0% | No |
Caroline County | Virginia | 12.0% | 8.2% | 5.0% | ![]() |
200 | 1.8% | -3.3% | No |
Essex County | Virginia | 10.4% | 7.3% | 2.1% | ![]() |
200 | 4.5% | 2.4% | Yes |
Nelson County | Virginia | 9.2% | 2.7% | 5.6% | ![]() |
17 | 0.2% | -5.4% | No |
Westmoreland County | Virginia | 10.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | ![]() |
707 | 10.1% | 3.0% | Yes |
Clallam County | Washington | 3.3% | 0.4% | 2.8% | ![]() |
6,082 | 15.5% | -18.3% | No |
Cowlitz County | Washington | 11.2% | 4.4% | 13.3% | ![]() |
5,458 | 12.3% | -1.0% | No |
Grays Harbor County | Washington | 14.6% | 14.1% | 7.0% | ![]() |
2,884 | 10.2% | -17.2% | No |
Mason County | Washington | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | ![]() |
2,228 | 8.1% | -13.9% | No |
Pacific County | Washington | 14.1% | 11.5% | 6.7% | ![]() |
119 | 1.1% | -5.6% | No |
Adams County | Wisconsin | 18.4% | 8.7% | 21.9% | ![]() |
234 | 2.5% | -19.4% | No |
Buffalo County | Wisconsin | 14.7% | 2.9% | 21.8% | ![]() |
752 | 12.7% | -34.5% | No |
Columbia County | Wisconsin | 15.3% | 13.6% | 2.1% | ![]() |
1,533 | 5.8% | -7.9% | No |
Crawford County | Wisconsin | 27.0% | 20.0% | 5.4% | ![]() |
1,922 | 29.3% | -34.7% | No |
Door County | Wisconsin | 17.3% | 7.0% | 3.2% | ![]() |
2,838 | 16.8% | 13.6% | Yes |
Dunn County | Wisconsin | 15.0% | 5.0% | 11.1% | ![]() |
2,254 | 12.3% | -23.4% | No |
Forest County | Wisconsin | 15.2% | 5.4% | 26.6% | ![]() |
1,338 | 33.8% | 7.2% | Yes |
Grant County | Wisconsin | 23.9% | 13.8% | 9.4% | ![]() |
3,081 | 15.9% | -25.3% | No |
Jackson County | Wisconsin | 21.8% | 15.0% | 11.7% | ![]() |
1,527 | 19.1% | -30.8% | No |
Juneau County | Wisconsin | 9.0% | 7.0% | 26.1% | ![]() |
746 | 7.4% | -18.6% | No |
Kenosha County | Wisconsin | 18.1% | 12.2% | 0.3% | ![]() |
1,346 | 2.0% | -2.3% | No |
Lafayette County | Wisconsin | 22.3% | 15.4% | 9.0% | ![]() |
4,462 | 95.6% | -104.6% | No |
Lincoln County | Wisconsin | 12.5% | 0.7% | 20.6% | ![]() |
4,123 | 30.7% | 10.1% | Yes |
Marquette County | Wisconsin | 5.3% | 0.3% | 24.1% | ![]() |
1,128 | 16.0% | -8.1% | No |
Pepin County | Wisconsin | 12.9% | 2.2% | 23.1% | ![]() |
176 | 5.7% | -28.8% | No |
Price County | Wisconsin | 13.4% | 0.0% | 25.0% | ![]() |
1,723 | 25.9% | 0.9% | Yes |
Racine County | Wisconsin | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | ![]() |
5,075 | 5.9% | 1.6% | Yes |
Richland County | Wisconsin | 20.6% | 16.1% | 5.5% | ![]() |
2,026 | 30.6% | -36.1% | No |
Sauk County | Wisconsin | 23.0% | 18.5% | 0.4% | ![]() |
19,755 | 100.0% | -100.3% | No |
Sawyer County | Wisconsin | 6.2% | 0.5% | 18.4% | ![]() |
1,206 | 14.8% | -3.6% | No |
Trempealeau County | Wisconsin | 26.4% | 14.1% | 12.6% | ![]() |
2,176 | 17.9% | -30.5% | No |
Vernon County | Wisconsin | 22.0% | 14.7% | 4.4% | ![]() |
3,123 | 24.1% | -28.5% | No |
Winnebago County | Wisconsin | 11.7% | 3.7% | 7.3% | ![]() |
841 | 1.1% | -8.5% | No |
Results by district
There are 99 Congressional districts that intersect with pivot counties.[1][2]
Heading into the 2018 election, 63 of these Congressional seats were held by Republicans and 36 were controlled by Democrats. Twelve of these seats switched parties, with 10 of them changing from Republican to Democratic hands, and two of them going from Democratic to Republican. Following the 2018 elections, Republicans controlled 54 of these Congressional districts and Democrats controlled 44. The state board of elections declined to certify results for the election in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District.
In seven districts, Democrats picked up seats that had been held by Republicans since at least 2012. Democrats gained three other seats across the 99 districts.
Republicans were able to flip two seats in this set of districts, claiming a pair of seats in Minnesota with Democratic incumbents that Donald Trump (R) won in 2016.
Across all 435 districts, Republicans lost a net of 36 of their 235 seats (15 percent). In the 99 districts that contain pivot counties, Republicans lost a net of eight of their 63 seats (13 percent).
Note: There are four districts in Pennsylvania that intersected with a pivot county as of November 2018: the 7th, 8th, 9th, and 16th districts. They are not included in this study due to redistricting that occurred in 2018.
Partisan breakdown of districts overlapping with pivot counties | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | As of November 2018 | After the 2018 Election | |
Democratic Party | 36 | 44 | |
Republican Party | 63 | 54 | |
Vacant | 0 | 1[3] | |
Total | 99 | 99 |
The table below shows the districts intersecting with pivot counties that changed partisan hands in 2018.
Districts that changed partisan hands in 2018 | ||
---|---|---|
District | Party of incumbent | Winning party |
Florida 26 | ![]() |
![]() |
Iowa 1 | ![]() |
![]() |
Iowa 3 | ![]() |
![]() |
Maine 2 | ![]() |
![]() |
Minnesota 1 | ![]() |
![]() |
Minnesota 2 | ![]() |
![]() |
Minnesota 8 | ![]() |
![]() |
New Jersey 2 | ![]() |
![]() |
New Mexico 2 | ![]() |
![]() |
New York 19 | ![]() |
![]() |
New York 22 | ![]() |
![]() |
South Carolina 1 | ![]() |
![]() |
The table below details election results for the Congressional districts in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. Click [show] below to view the full data for the Congressional districts that intersect with pivot counties in the 2018 elections.
2018 Congressional election results by district | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District | Pivot Counties | 2012 MoV | 2012 Winner | 2014 MoV | 2014 Winner | 2016 MoV | 2016 Winner | 2018 MoV | 2018 Winner | Flipped in 2018? |
Arkansas 1 | Woodruff | 17.1% | ![]() |
30.9% | ![]() |
52.6% | ![]() |
40.17% | ![]() |
No |
Colorado 3 | Conejos, Huerfano, Pueblo | 12.3% | ![]() |
22.3% | ![]() |
14.3% | ![]() |
7.97% | ![]() |
No |
Colorado 4 | Las Animas | 21.7% | ![]() |
35.4% | ![]() |
31.9% | ![]() |
21.24% | ![]() |
No |
Connecticut 2 | Windham | 38.9% | ![]() |
26.7% | ![]() |
29.6% | ![]() |
26.72% | ![]() |
No |
Delaware At-Large | Kent | 31.5% | ![]() |
22.5% | ![]() |
14.6% | ![]() |
28.91% | ![]() |
No |
Florida 2 | Jefferson | 5.5% | ![]() |
1.1% | ![]() |
37.4% | ![]() |
34.88% | ![]() |
No |
Florida 12 | Pinellas | 30.5% | ![]() |
100.0% | ![]() |
37.2% | ![]() |
18.43% | ![]() |
No |
Florida 13 | Pinellas | 15.1% | ![]() |
50.5% | ![]() |
3.8% | ![]() |
15.29% | ![]() |
No |
Florida 18 | St. Lucie | 0.6% | ![]() |
19.6% | ![]() |
10.5% | ![]() |
8.60% | ![]() |
No |
Florida 26 | Monroe | 10.6% | ![]() |
2.9% | ![]() |
11.8% | ![]() |
1.75% | ![]() |
Yes |
Georgia 2 | Baker, Dooly, Peach, Quitman | 27.6% | ![]() |
18.3% | ![]() |
22.5% | ![]() |
19.30% | ![]() |
No |
Georgia 8 | Twiggs | 100.0% | ![]() |
100.0% | ![]() |
35.3% | ![]() |
100.00% | ![]() |
No |
Illinois 12 | Alexander | 8.9% | ![]() |
10.6% | ![]() |
14.6% | ![]() |
6.18% | ![]() |
No |
Illinois 16 | Putnam | 23.6% | ![]() |
41.2% | ![]() |
99.9% | ![]() |
18.25% | ![]() |
No |
Illinois 17 | Carroll, Fulton, Henderson, Henry, Jo Daviess, Knox, Mercer, Warren, Whiteside | 6.6% | ![]() |
10.9% | ![]() |
20.6% | ![]() |
24.19% | ![]() |
No |
Indiana 1 | LaPorte, Porter | 34.6% | ![]() |
25.0% | ![]() |
63.0% | ![]() |
30.19% | ![]() |
No |
Indiana 2 | LaPorte | 1.4% | ![]() |
20.7% | ![]() |
22.3% | ![]() |
9.67% | ![]() |
No |
Indiana 6 | Delaware | 24.0% | ![]() |
36.5% | ![]() |
42.4% | ![]() |
30.96% | ![]() |
No |
Indiana 8 | Perry, Vigo | 10.3% | ![]() |
24.5% | ![]() |
32.0% | ![]() |
28.86% | ![]() |
No |
Iowa 1 | Allamakee, Bremer, Buchanan, Clayton, Dubuque, Fayette, Howard, Jackson, Jones, Marshall, Mitchell, Poweshiek, Tama, Winneshiek, Worth | 15.4% | ![]() |
2.3% | ![]() |
7.7% | ![]() |
5.06% | ![]() |
Yes |
Iowa 2 | Cedar, Clarke, Clinton, Des Moines, Jasper, Jefferson, Lee, Louisa, Muscatine, Wapello | 13.1% | ![]() |
5.1% | ![]() |
7.5% | ![]() |
12.19% | ![]() |
No |
Iowa 3 | Union | 8.6% | ![]() |
10.5% | ![]() |
13.7% | ![]() |
2.16% | ![]() |
Yes |
Iowa 4 | Boone, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Floyd, Webster | 8.1% | ![]() |
23.3% | ![]() |
22.6% | ![]() |
3.33% | ![]() |
No |
Kentucky 5 | Elliott | 55.8% | ![]() |
56.5% | ![]() |
100.0% | ![]() |
57.89% | ![]() |
No |
Maine 1 | Kennebec | 28.3% | ![]() |
28.5% | ![]() |
16.0% | ![]() |
26.31% | ![]() |
No |
Maine 2 | Kennebec, Androscoggin, Aroostook, Franklin, Oxford, Penobscot, Somerset, Washington | 15.7% | ![]() |
5.0% | ![]() |
9.6% | ![]() |
1.25% | ![]() |
Yes |
Michigan 1 | Gogebic, Manistee | 0.5% | ![]() |
6.9% | ![]() |
14.8% | ![]() |
12.63% | ![]() |
No |
Michigan 2 | Lake | 26.9% | ![]() |
30.4% | ![]() |
30.1% | ![]() |
12.35% | ![]() |
No |
Michigan 3 | Calhoun | 8.4% | ![]() |
18.9% | ![]() |
21.9% | ![]() |
11.24% | ![]() |
No |
Michigan 4 | Isabella, Saginaw, Shiawassee | 29.5% | ![]() |
17.4% | ![]() |
29.5% | ![]() |
25.25% | ![]() |
No |
Michigan 5 | Saginaw, Bay | 33.5% | ![]() |
35.5% | ![]() |
26.1% | ![]() |
23.60% | ![]() |
No |
Michigan 6 | Van Buren | 12.0% | ![]() |
15.5% | ![]() |
22.2% | ![]() |
4.55% | ![]() |
No |
Michigan 7 | Eaton, Monroe | 10.3% | ![]() |
12.3% | ![]() |
15.0% | ![]() |
7.59% | ![]() |
No |
Michigan 9 | Macomb | 27.9% | ![]() |
24.3% | ![]() |
20.5% | ![]() |
22.86% | ![]() |
No |
Michigan 10 | Macomb | 39.1% | ![]() |
39.3% | ![]() |
30.8% | ![]() |
25.32% | ![]() |
No |
Minnesota 1 | Blue Earth, Fillmore, Freeborn, Houston, Mower, Nicollet, Rice, Winona | 15.2% | ![]() |
8.5% | ![]() |
0.8% | ![]() |
0.45% | ![]() |
Yes |
Minnesota 2 | Rice | 8.2% | ![]() |
17.2% | ![]() |
1.8% | ![]() |
5.51% | ![]() |
Yes |
Minnesota 7 | Beltrami, Chippewa, Clay, Kittson, Lac qui Parle, Mahnomen, Norman, Swift, Traverse | 25.5% | ![]() |
8.5% | ![]() |
5.0% | ![]() |
4.26% | ![]() |
No |
Minnesota 8 | Beltrami, Itasca, Koochiching | 8.9% | ![]() |
1.4% | ![]() |
0.6% | ![]() |
5.54% | ![]() |
Yes |
Mississippi 1 | Chickasaw | 23.5% | ![]() |
39.0% | ![]() |
40.8% | ![]() |
34.52% | ![]() |
No |
Mississippi 2 | Panola | 36.2% | ![]() |
43.2% | ![]() |
38.0% | ![]() |
50.06% | ![]() |
No |
Montana At-Large | Blaine, Hill, Roosevelt | 10.5% | ![]() |
15.0% | ![]() |
15.6% | ![]() |
4.63% | ![]() |
No |
Nebraska 1 | Thurston | 36.6% | ![]() |
37.6% | ![]() |
38.9% | ![]() |
20.72% | ![]() |
No |
New Hampshire 1 | Hillsborough | 3.8% | ![]() |
3.6% | ![]() |
1.3% | ![]() |
8.55% | ![]() |
No |
New Hampshire 2 | Hillsborough, Coos, Sullivan | 4.8% | ![]() |
10.0% | ![]() |
4.4% | ![]() |
13.36% | ![]() |
No |
New Jersey 1 | Gloucester | 38.3% | ![]() |
18.0% | ![]() |
23.2% | ![]() |
31.13% | ![]() |
No |
New Jersey 2 | Gloucester, Salem | 17.4% | ![]() |
24.2% | ![]() |
22.0% | ![]() |
7.67% | ![]() |
Yes |
New Mexico 1 | Valencia | 18.3% | ![]() |
17.2% | ![]() |
30.3% | ![]() |
22.81% | ![]() |
No |
New Mexico 2 | Valencia, Hidalgo | 18.2% | ![]() |
28.9% | ![]() |
25.5% | ![]() |
1.87% | ![]() |
Yes |
New Mexico 3 | Colfax | 26.2% | ![]() |
23.1% | ![]() |
24.8% | ![]() |
32.17% | ![]() |
No |
New York 1 | Suffolk | 4.6% | ![]() |
8.7% | ![]() |
17.9% | ![]() |
4.09% | ![]() |
No |
New York 2 | Suffolk | 15.4% | ![]() |
36.4% | ![]() |
24.9% | ![]() |
6.22% | ![]() |
No |
New York 3 | Suffolk | 14.6% | ![]() |
9.2% | ![]() |
5.6% | ![]() |
17.95% | ![]() |
No |
New York 18 | Orange | 3.7% | ![]() |
1.8% | ![]() |
11.2% | ![]() |
10.94% | ![]() |
No |
New York 19 | Broome, Otsego, Rensselaer, Sullivan | 5.3% | ![]() |
28.1% | ![]() |
8.6% | ![]() |
5.21% | ![]() |
Yes |
New York 20 | Rensselaer, Saratoga | 34.5% | ![]() |
21.7% | ![]() |
35.8% | ![]() |
32.99% | ![]() |
No |
New York 21 | Broome, Saratoga, Essex, Franklin, St. Lawrence, Warren, Washington | 1.9% | ![]() |
20.5% | ![]() |
35.1% | ![]() |
13.68% | ![]() |
No |
New York 22 | Cortland, Madison, Oswego | 19.9% | ![]() |
48.1% | ![]() |
5.5% | ![]() |
1.78% | ![]() |
Yes |
New York 23 | Seneca | 3.6% | ![]() |
21.9% | ![]() |
15.2% | ![]() |
8.48% | ![]() |
No |
New York 24 | Oswego, Cayuga | 5.3% | ![]() |
18.8% | ![]() |
21.1% | ![]() |
5.26% | ![]() |
No |
New York 26 | Niagara | 46.2% | ![]() |
34.7% | ![]() |
49.2% | ![]() |
46.68% | ![]() |
No |
New York 27 | Niagara | 1.5% | ![]() |
39.9% | ![]() |
34.4% | ![]() |
0.38% | ![]() |
No |
North Carolina 1 | Gates, Granville, Martin | 52.5% | ![]() |
46.8% | ![]() |
39.7% | ![]() |
39.70% | ![]() |
No |
North Carolina 7 | Bladen, Robeson | 0.2% | ![]() |
22.2% | ![]() |
21.8% | ![]() |
12.74% | ![]() |
No |
North Carolina 9 | Bladen, Richmond, Robeson | 6.10% | ![]() |
92.50% | ![]() |
16.40% | ![]() |
N/A | N/A | N/A[4] |
North Dakota At-Large | Benson, Ransom, Sargent, Steele | 13.2% | ![]() |
17.1% | ![]() |
45.4% | ![]() |
24.63% | ![]() |
No |
Ohio 4 | Erie, Sandusky | 21.9% | ![]() |
35.3% | ![]() |
36.0% | ![]() |
30.53% | ![]() |
No |
Ohio 5 | Ottawa, Wood | 18.1% | ![]() |
37.5% | ![]() |
41.8% | ![]() |
27.12% | ![]() |
No |
Ohio 7 | Stark | 12.8% | ![]() |
100.0% | ![]() |
35.1% | ![]() |
17.49% | ![]() |
No |
Ohio 9 | Erie, Ottawa | 50.0% | ![]() |
35.6% | ![]() |
37.4% | ![]() |
35.59% | ![]() |
No |
Ohio 10 | Montgomery | 22.1% | ![]() |
33.6% | ![]() |
31.4% | ![]() |
13.76% | ![]() |
No |
Ohio 13 | Stark, Portage, Trumbull | 45.5% | ![]() |
37.0% | ![]() |
35.5% | ![]() |
21.99% | ![]() |
No |
Ohio 14 | Portage, Trumbull, Ashtabula | 15.3% | ![]() |
30.2% | ![]() |
25.2% | ![]() |
10.50% | ![]() |
No |
Ohio 16 | Stark, Portage | 4.1% | ![]() |
27.5% | ![]() |
30.7% | ![]() |
13.46% | ![]() |
No |
Oregon 1 | Columbia | 26.6% | ![]() |
22.8% | ![]() |
22.6% | ![]() |
31.59% | ![]() |
No |
Oregon 5 | Tillamook | 11.6% | ![]() |
14.4% | ![]() |
10.5% | ![]() |
13.20% | ![]() |
No |
Rhode Island 2 | Kent | 20.6% | ![]() |
24.6% | ![]() |
27.4% | ![]() |
27.21% | ![]() |
No |
South Carolina 1 | Colleton | 26.3% | ![]() |
86.8% | ![]() |
21.7% | ![]() |
1.39% | ![]() |
Yes |
South Carolina 2 | Barnwell | 92.5% | ![]() |
27.2% | ![]() |
24.4% | ![]() |
13.78% | ![]() |
No |
South Carolina 3 | McCormick | 33.3% | ![]() |
42.4% | ![]() |
45.8% | ![]() |
36.82% | ![]() |
No |
South Carolina 5 | Chester | 11.1% | ![]() |
21.3% | ![]() |
20.5% | ![]() |
15.54% | ![]() |
No |
South Carolina 6 | Colleton, Calhoun | 88.1% | ![]() |
47.0% | ![]() |
42.5% | ![]() |
41.89% | ![]() |
No |
South Dakota At-Large | Corson, Day, Marshall, Roberts, Ziebach | 14.9% | ![]() |
33.1% | ![]() |
28.2% | ![]() |
24.31% | ![]() |
No |
Tennessee 7 | Hardeman | 47.0% | ![]() |
43.2% | ![]() |
48.7% | ![]() |
34.75% | ![]() |
No |
Texas 14 | Jefferson | 8.9% | ![]() |
25.8% | ![]() |
23.7% | ![]() |
19.93% | ![]() |
No |
Vermont At-Large | Essex | 48.7% | ![]() |
33.4% | ![]() |
79.6% | ![]() |
43.25% | ![]() |
No |
Virginia 1 | Caroline, Essex, Westmoreland | 15.1% | ![]() |
28.5% | ![]() |
23.3% | ![]() |
10.47% | ![]() |
No |
Virginia 4 | Chesapeake City | 14.0% | ![]() |
22.6% | ![]() |
15.7% | ![]() |
26.66% | ![]() |
No |
Virginia 5 | Buckingham, Nelson | 12.6% | ![]() |
25.0% | ![]() |
16.7% | ![]() |
6.53% | ![]() |
No |
Virginia 9 | Covington City | 22.7% | ![]() |
47.9% | ![]() |
40.3% | ![]() |
30.41% | ![]() |
No |
Washington 3 | Cowlitz, Pacific | 20.8% | ![]() |
23.1% | ![]() |
23.5% | ![]() |
5.34% | ![]() |
No |
Washington 6 | Clallam, Grays Harbor, Mason | 18.0% | ![]() |
26.0% | ![]() |
23.1% | ![]() |
27.77% | ![]() |
No |
Washington 10 | Mason | 17.1% | ![]() |
9.4% | ![]() |
17.3% | ![]() |
23.09% | ![]() |
No |
Wisconsin 1 | Kenosha, Racine | 11.5% | ![]() |
26.6% | ![]() |
34.8% | ![]() |
12.29% | ![]() |
No |
Wisconsin 2 | Lafayette, Richland, Sauk | 36.0% | ![]() |
36.9% | ![]() |
37.6% | ![]() |
94.86% | ![]() |
No |
Wisconsin 3 | Richland, Adams, Buffalo, Crawford, Dunn, Grant, Jackson, Juneau, Pepin, Trempeleau, Vernon | 28.3% | ![]() |
13.0% | ![]() |
99.9% | ![]() |
19.34% | ![]() |
No |
Wisconsin 6 | Columbia, Marquette, Winnebago | 24.3% | ![]() |
15.9% | ![]() |
19.9% | ![]() |
11.01% | ![]() |
No |
Wisconsin 7 | Jackson, Juneau, Forest, Lincoln, Price, Sawyer | 12.3% | ![]() |
19.9% | ![]() |
23.4% | ![]() |
21.61% | ![]() |
No |
Wisconsin 8 | Winnebago, Door | 12.0% | ![]() |
30.1% | ![]() |
25.4% | ![]() |
27.42% | ![]() |
No |
About the data
The election results data by county for this study were provided by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Some pivot counties overlap with multiple Congressional districts. In those cases, the county's total votes are applied to the results totals of both Congressional districts. Some races may have only had a candidate from one of the two major parties. They may have included an independent or third-party candidate instead. There may be some cases where only one candidate ran at all. There are some cases where a margin of victory change in a county is close to or above -100.00% or 100.00%. This is because a county only had one major party candidate running in a U.S. House race, or one major party candidate and write-in candidates.
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Reverse-Pivot Counties: The counties that voted McCain-Romney-Clinton from 2008-2016
- Presidential election, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 There are five districts in Pennsylvania that were included in 2016 analysis that are not included here due to redistricting.
- ↑ Two of these districts, Virginia’s 4th Congressional district and 9th Congressional district, contain Chesapeake City and Covington City, respectively. These are independent cities, which are considered the equivalent of counties. Both cities voted for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012 and then voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and are considered pivot counties in the table below.
- ↑ North Carolina's 9th Congressional District
- ↑ In this race, the state Board of Elections did not certify the election results and voted unanimously to call for a new election.
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