Pivot counties: How Obama-Obama-Trump counties voted in the 2018 U.S. House elections

2016 Pivot Counties

Analysis Pivot counties overview List of counties Historical voting patterns Historical voting analysis, 1992-2004 Demographics Reverse-Pivot Counties Voter turnout Pivot Counties by state Pivot Counties in congressional districts Pivot Counties in state legislative districts Pivot Counties and ballot measures

2018 elections analysis Pivot counties in U.S. House elections Pivot counties in state legislative elections Reverse pivot counties in U.S. House elections

Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election

Pivot Counties in the 2022 midterm elections

Last updated: May 15, 2020
There are 206 pivot counties in the country: those that voted for Barack Obama (D) in both 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Thus, they voted Republican in 2016 after voting Democrat in 2008 and 2012. A small number of these counties could be considered bellwethers in modern elections. These counties are sometimes referred to as swing counties by media and political observers.

What happened in those counties in the 2018 elections?

Democratic U.S. House candidates won 113 (55 percent) of the pivot counties in 2018. Republican candidates won 93. In one other race, for North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, the state Board of Elections did not certify the election results and voted unanimously to call for a new election. In 184 pivot counties, the Republican U.S. House candidate had either a lesser margin of victory than Trump did in 2016 or lost the county to the Democratic U.S. House candidate.

Across all 435 districts, Republicans lost a net of 40 of their 235 seats (17 percent). In the 99 districts that intersected pivot counties at the time of the 2018 elections, Republicans lost a net eight of their 63 seats (13 percent).

Twelve districts that intersected with a pivot county changed partisan hands in 2018: 10 from Republican to Democratic, and two from Democratic to Republican. Following the election, Republicans controlled 54 seats and Democrats controlled 44 seats, for a total net change of eight seats in favor of Democrats.

This page includes:

• Data on how pivot counties voted in 2018 Congressional elections
• Election results from 2012 to 2018 in each of the 105 Congressional districts that intersect a pivot county.

For further analysis of pivot counties in the 2018 elections, see:

• Pivot counties: How Obama-Obama-Trump counties voted in the 2018 state legislative elections
• Reverse pivot counties: How McCain-Romney-Clinton counties voted in the 2018 U.S. House elections

The following map displays 2018 U.S. House results in pivot counties:

Results by county

Democratic candidates won 113 of the 2016 pivot counties in the 2018 Congressional elections, while Republican candidates won 93 of the counties. Those Democratic candidates won by an average of 3,115 votes and had a margin of victory of 12.3 percent, while Republican candidates won their counties by an average of 1,705 votes and a margin of victory of 10.1 percent. In counties where a Democratic candidate won, the Republican candidate performed worse than Trump's 2016 numbers by an average of 21 percent. In counties where a Republican candidate won, they underperformed Trump's 2016 numbers by an average of 6.9 percent.

Pivot counties in the 2018 Congressional elections
Party	Counties Won	Average MoV #	Average MoV %	Average Change 16-18	Median MoV #	Median MoV %	Median Change 16-18
Democratic	113	3,115	12.3%	-21.0%	1,360	9.2%	-18.1%
Republican	93	1,705	10.1%	-6.88%	707	8.1%	-5.6%

The table below shows how each pivot county voted for U.S. House candidates in 2018, including the party it voted for, the number of total votes of the margin of victory, the margin of victory percentage, and the change in the margin of victory percentage from 2016 to 2018. A positive number in the 2016 to 2018 change in the margin of victory percentage means that the Republican U.S. House candidate in 2018 overperformed compared to Trump in 2016. A negative number indicates that the Republican U.S. House candidate performed worse than Trump in 2016.

How did pivot counties vote in the 2018 elections? Click to watch View other episodes here.

Click [show] below to view the full data for all 206 pivot counties in the 2018 elections.

Pivot counties in the 2018 Congressional elections
County	State	2008 Obama MoV	2012 Obama MoV	2016 Trump MoV	2018 U.S. House Party Winner	2018 MoV (# of Votes)	2018 MoV (%)	MoV +/- Change 2016 to 2018	Better MoV than Trump?
Woodruff County	Arkansas	7.5%	4.2%	8.9%	Republican	379	18.3%	9.3%	Yes
Conejos County	Colorado	12.9%	9.2%	3.6%	Republican	341	9.6%	6.0%	Yes
Huerfano County	Colorado	11.2%	8.3%	6.6%	Republican	126	3.5%	-3.1%	No
Las Animas County	Colorado	7.0%	2.7%	15.6%	Republican	232	3.7%	-11.9%	No
Pueblo County	Colorado	15.0%	14.0%	0.5%	Republican	1,246	1.9%	1.4%	Yes
Windham County	Connecticut	14.7%	13.3%	7.8%	Democratic	8,090	19.5%	-27.2%	No
Kent County	Delaware	9.8%	4.9%	4.9%	Democratic	8,606	14.9%	-19.8%	No
Jefferson County	Florida	3.7%	1.8%	5.1%	Democratic	151	2.1%	-7.1%	No
Monroe County	Florida	4.9%	0.4%	6.8%	Republican	2,636	7.3%	0.5%	Yes
Pinellas County	Florida	8.3%	5.7%	1.1%	Democratic	32,812	7.6%	-8.7%	No
St. Lucie County	Florida	12.1%	7.9%	2.4%	Democratic	636	0.5%	-2.9%	No
Baker County	Georgia	1.1%	0.6%	8.7%	Democratic	43	3.4%	-12.1%	No
Dooly County	Georgia	3.5%	7.0%	2.1%	Democratic	372	10.1%	-12.2%	No
Peach County	Georgia	6.8%	7.5%	2.9%	Democratic	25	0.2%	-3.2%	No
Quitman County	Georgia	7.9%	9.0%	10.9%	Democratic	16	1.8%	-12.7%	No
Twiggs County	Georgia	7.0%	8.6%	1.6%	Republican	2,597	100.0%	-101.6%	No
Alexander County	Illinois	12.6%	13.7%	8.3%	Democratic	15	0.7%	-9.0%	No
Carroll County	Illinois	4.8%	1.5%	26.7%	Democratic	371	6.2%	-32.9%	No
Fulton County	Illinois	21.3%	11.0%	14.9%	Democratic	3,151	25.0%	-40.0%	No
Henderson County	Illinois	17.7%	12.3%	28.4%	Democratic	108	4.1%	-32.5%	No
Henry County	Illinois	7.7%	3.1%	21.0%	Democratic	1,374	7.1%	-28.1%	No
Jo Daviess County	Illinois	10.5%	1.2%	14.6%	Democratic	987	10.7%	-25.3%	No
Knox County	Illinois	19.9%	17.4%	2.9%	Democratic	4,532	25.4%	-28.3%	No
Mercer County	Illinois	11.9%	7.4%	20.4%	Democratic	930	13.3%	-33.6%	No
Putnam County	Illinois	15.6%	1.8%	19.9%	Republican	393	15.2%	-4.7%	No
Warren County	Illinois	8.1%	5.5%	16.5%	Democratic	604	9.9%	-26.4%	No
Whiteside County	Illinois	17.6%	17.0%	6.2%	Democratic	5,086	23.8%	-29.9%	No
Delaware County	Indiana	15.0%	3.1%	13.4%	Democratic	408	1.1%	-14.5%	No
LaPorte County	Indiana	22.0%	12.6%	6.3%	Democratic	4,710	12.8%	-19.1%	No
Perry County	Indiana	22.8%	11.6%	18.6%	Republican	795	11.3%	-7.3%	No
Porter County	Indiana	7.2%	3.9%	6.6%	Democratic	11,110	17.2%	-23.8%	No
Vigo County	Indiana	15.8%	0.9%	15.0%	Republican	3,732	11.9%	-3.1%	No
Allamakee County	Iowa	14.3%	4.2%	24.2%	Republican	720	12.7%	-11.4%	No
Boone County	Iowa	7.6%	6.6%	13.7%	Democratic	1,003	8.3%	-22.0%	No
Bremer County	Iowa	9.3%	2.7%	13.7%	Republican	726	6.4%	-7.3%	No
Buchanan County	Iowa	18.5%	13.9%	15.0%	Republican	189	2.2%	-12.8%	No
Cedar County	Iowa	9.6%	4.6%	17.8%	Democratic	373	4.6%	-22.4%	No
Cerro Gordo County	Iowa	20.8%	13.4%	7.7%	Democratic	3,068	16.2%	-23.9%	No
Chickasaw County	Iowa	20.7%	11.1%	22.9%	Republican	326	6.3%	-16.7%	No
Clarke County	Iowa	2.3%	1.5%	28.0%	Republican	414	11.5%	-16.6%	No
Clayton County	Iowa	17.2%	7.0%	22.8%	Republican	1,009	12.8%	-10.0%	No
Clinton County	Iowa	23.0%	22.8%	5.1%	Democratic	2,139	11.9%	-17.0%	No
Des Moines County	Iowa	23.0%	18.4%	6.9%	Democratic	2,408	16.0%	-22.9%	No
Dubuque County	Iowa	20.8%	14.7%	1.2%	Democratic	3,077	7.2%	-8.4%	No
Fayette County	Iowa	16.6%	12.0%	19.4%	Republican	466	5.7%	-13.7%	No
Floyd County	Iowa	21.9%	14.6%	14.8%	Democratic	364	5.8%	-20.7%	No
Howard County	Iowa	25.8%	21.0%	20.5%	Republican	291	8.1%	-12.4%	No
Jackson County	Iowa	24.4%	16.9%	19.3%	Republican	686	8.1%	-11.2%	No
Jasper County	Iowa	7.5%	7.1%	18.1%	Republican	103	0.7%	-17.5%	No
Jefferson County	Iowa	20.2%	16.0%	0.5%	Democratic	1,557	22.2%	-22.6%	No
Jones County	Iowa	10.4%	7.8%	19.1%	Republican	703	8.2%	-10.9%	No
Lee County	Iowa	16.0%	15.5%	16.0%	Democratic	937	7.5%	-23.6%	No
Louisa County	Iowa	4.3%	0.6%	28.4%	Republican	352	9.3%	-19.1%	No
Marshall County	Iowa	9.4%	9.4%	8.3%	Republican	513	3.6%	-4.7%	No
Mitchell County	Iowa	12.3%	3.4%	24.0%	Republican	682	15.2%	-8.9%	No
Muscatine County	Iowa	15.6%	15.9%	6.3%	Democratic	1,228	8.3%	-14.6%	No
Poweshiek County	Iowa	11.8%	9.4%	6.5%	Republican	78	1.0%	-5.6%	No
Tama County	Iowa	12.2%	7.4%	20.3%	Republican	523	7.2%	-13.1%	No
Union County	Iowa	3.7%	3.9%	27.5%	Republican	1,213	25.0%	-2.5%	No
Wapello County	Iowa	13.5%	11.9%	20.6%	Democratic	606	5.4%	-26.0%	No
Webster County	Iowa	8.5%	5.8%	21.5%	Democratic	212	1.5%	-23.0%	No
Winneshiek County	Iowa	22.7%	14.7%	0.8%	Democratic	738	7.5%	-8.3%	No
Worth County	Iowa	22.4%	14.5%	21.7%	Republican	336	9.6%	-12.1%	No
Elliott County	Kentucky	25.2%	2.5%	44.1%	Republican	161	9.1%	-35.0%	No
Androscoggin County	Maine	15.2%	12.8%	9.4%	Democratic	913	2.0%	-11.4%	No
Aroostook County	Maine	9.6%	7.6%	17.2%	Republican	3,272	12.0%	-5.2%	No
Franklin County	Maine	20.3%	18.4%	5.5%	Democratic	856	6.1%	-11.6%	No
Kennebec County	Maine	14.8%	13.5%	3.6%	Democratic	5,262	15.8%	-19.3%	No
Oxford County	Maine	16.0%	14.7%	12.9%	Republican	315	1.2%	-11.7%	No
Penobscot County	Maine	5.1%	2.9%	10.9%	Republican	2,119	3.3%	-7.6%	No
Somerset County	Maine	5.7%	1.7%	22.7%	Republican	2,718	13.0%	-9.7%	No
Washington County	Maine	1.0%	1.6%	18.4%	Republican	790	6.0%	-12.4%	No
Bay County	Michigan	15.3%	5.6%	12.6%	Democratic	5,946	13.0%	-25.6%	No
Calhoun County	Michigan	9.4%	1.6%	12.5%	Republican	5,773	11.8%	-0.7%	No
Eaton County	Michigan	8.4%	3.1%	4.7%	Democratic	1,834	3.7%	-8.4%	No
Gogebic County	Michigan	17.3%	8.1%	14.8%	Republican	138	2.1%	-12.7%	No
Isabella County	Michigan	19.3%	9.3%	3.7%	Republican	993	4.5%	0.9%	Yes
Lake County	Michigan	12.3%	5.0%	22.8%	Republican	963	20.8%	-1.9%	No
Macomb County	Michigan	8.6%	4.0%	11.5%	Democratic	1,863	0.5%	-12.1%	No
Manistee County	Michigan	13.3%	5.9%	15.3%	Republican	1,077	9.3%	-6.0%	No
Monroe County	Michigan	4.4%	1.0%	22.0%	Republican	7,486	12.3%	-9.6%	No
Saginaw County	Michigan	17.3%	11.9%	1.1%	Democratic	2,914	3.7%	-4.8%	No
Shiawassee County	Michigan	8.6%	3.7%	19.6%	Republican	5,382	18.5%	-1.1%	No
Van Buren County	Michigan	8.8%	0.5%	13.9%	Republican	2,530	8.6%	-5.3%	No
Beltrami County	Minnesota	10.2%	9.9%	9.7%	Democratic	1,566	8.8%	-18.5%	No
Blue Earth County	Minnesota	13.0%	9.5%	3.7%	Democratic	4,025	14.4%	-18.1%	No
Chippewa County	Minnesota	5.9%	1.9%	28.7%	Democratic	703	12.7%	-41.4%	No
Clay County	Minnesota	16.0%	7.9%	2.0%	Democratic	8,383	34.5%	-36.5%	No
Fillmore County	Minnesota	8.3%	7.3%	21.7%	Republican	597	6.2%	-15.5%	No
Freeborn County	Minnesota	17.1%	14.1%	17.2%	Republican	205	1.5%	-15.8%	No
Houston County	Minnesota	10.7%	3.2%	13.9%	Republican	116	1.3%	-12.6%	No
Itasca County	Minnesota	12.9%	9.8%	16.4%	Republican	1,257	5.8%	-10.5%	No
Kittson County	Minnesota	18.5%	6.0%	22.1%	Democratic	673	28.6%	-50.6%	No
Koochiching County	Minnesota	10.1%	9.5%	19.9%	Republican	245	4.7%	-15.2%	No
Lac qui Parle County	Minnesota	5.9%	0.9%	25.6%	Democratic	594	17.7%	-43.3%	No
Mahnomen County	Minnesota	25.3%	18.6%	2.9%	Democratic	641	33.3%	-36.2%	No
Mower County	Minnesota	23.6%	22.6%	7.8%	Democratic	1,187	8.2%	-16.0%	No
Nicollet County	Minnesota	10.5%	7.8%	3.0%	Democratic	2,134	13.7%	-16.7%	No
Norman County	Minnesota	26.9%	10.8%	13.3%	Democratic	1,001	36.9%	-50.2%	No
Rice County	Minnesota	11.5%	8.3%	3.1%	Democratic	2,592	9.2%	-12.2%	No
Swift County	Minnesota	13.8%	9.8%	25.6%	Democratic	580	14.4%	-39.9%	No
Traverse County	Minnesota	5.4%	4.4%	23.3%	Democratic	266	17.5%	-40.8%	No
Winona County	Minnesota	19.1%	12.9%	2.9%	Democratic	3,055	14.4%	-17.3%	No
Chickasaw County	Mississippi	2.1%	4.5%	6.1%	Republican	827	13.9%	7.8%	Yes
Panola County	Mississippi	6.5%	8.6%	0.1%	Democratic	3,185	29.9%	-30.0%	No
Blaine County	Montana	19.2%	15.3%	2.5%	Democratic	569	19.0%	-21.4%	No
Hill County	Montana	12.2%	3.5%	17.2%	Democratic	481	7.5%	-24.7%	No
Roosevelt County	Montana	26.3%	15.6%	6.5%	Democratic	389	11.3%	-17.8%	No
Thurston County	Nebraska	7.0%	13.9%	5.9%	Republican	117	6.4%	0.5%	Yes
Coos County	New Hampshire	18.2%	17.5%	8.9%	Democratic	1,037	9.2%	-18.1%	No
Hillsborough County	New Hampshire	3.7%	1.1%	0.2%	Democratic	16,129	10.0%	-10.2%	No
Sullivan County	New Hampshire	17.9%	13.3%	2.6%	Democratic	1,647	9.6%	-12.2%	No
Gloucester County	New Jersey	12.2%	10.8%	0.5%	Democratic	11,512	10.3%	-10.8%	No
Salem County	New Jersey	3.9%	1.3%	15.0%	Republican	1,095	4.6%	-10.4%	No
Colfax County	New Mexico	10.7%	2.2%	8.6%	Democratic	539	11.6%	-20.1%	No
Hidalgo County	New Mexico	2.9%	5.0%	6.7%	Democratic	57	3.6%	-10.3%	No
Valencia County	New Mexico	7.7%	2.5%	8.6%	Democratic	1,335	5.5%	-14.1%	No
Broome County	New York	8.0%	5.3%	2.0%	Democratic	9,056	12.4%	-14.4%	No
Cayuga County	New York	8.5%	11.4%	11.6%	Republican	5,761	20.9%	9.2%	Yes
Cortland County	New York	10.0%	9.1%	5.6%	Democratic	1,868	11.2%	-16.8%	No
Essex County	New York	13.3%	18.8%	1.1%	Democratic	161	1.1%	-2.3%	No
Franklin County	New York	22.2%	26.1%	5.5%	Republican	432	3.0%	-2.4%	No
Madison County	New York	0.9%	0.9%	14.2%	Republican	487	1.9%	-12.3%	No
Niagara County	New York	1.0%	0.8%	17.8%	Democratic	4,752	6.7%	-24.4%	No
Orange County	New York	4.1%	5.7%	5.5%	Democratic	10,414	8.7%	-14.2%	No
Oswego County	New York	2.4%	7.9%	22.0%	Republican	8,743	22.5%	0.5%	Yes
Otsego County	New York	5.9%	2.7%	11.1%	Democratic	109	0.5%	-11.6%	No
Rennselaer County	New York	9.3%	12.2%	1.4%	Democratic	8,179	13.6%	-15.0%	No
St. Lawrence County	New York	16.3%	16.7%	8.8%	Republican	2,840	8.5%	-0.4%	No
Saratoga County	New York	3.4%	2.4%	3.2%	Democratic	6,624	7.0%	-10.2%	No
Seneca County	New York	2.6%	9.1%	11.0%	Republican	707	6.1%	-4.9%	No
Suffolk County	New York	6.0%	3.7%	6.8%	Democratic	3,390	0.6%	-7.5%	No
Sullivan County	New York	9.5%	9.0%	11.2%	Republican	201	0.8%	-10.4%	No
Warren County	New York	2.6%	2.3%	8.5%	Republican	843	3.2%	-5.3%	No
Washington County	New York	0.8%	1.9%	18.4%	Republican	3,481	16.9%	-1.5%	No
Bladen County	North Carolina	2.1%	2.0%	9.4%	Republican	798	6.2%	-3.2%	No
Gates County	North Carolina	5.2%	4.1%	9.1%	Democratic	99	2.4%	-11.4%	No
Granville County	North Carolina	6.6%	4.5%	2.5%	Democratic	403	1.9%	-4.4%	No
Martin County	North Carolina	4.6%	4.7%	0.4%	Democratic	439	4.8%	-5.3%	No
Richmond County	North Carolina	1.5%	3.0%	9.7%	Democratic	352	2.5%	-12.2%	No
Robeson County	North Carolina	13.8%	17.4%	4.3%	Democratic	4,728	15.3%	-19.6%	No
Benson County	North Dakota	33.5%	17.0%	4.3%	Democratic	316	14.1%	-18.4%	No
Ransom County	North Dakota	15.3%	13.8%	15.8%	Democratic	35	1.5%	-17.3%	No
Sargent County	North Dakota	17.5%	9.8%	19.7%	Republican	31	1.6%	-18.2%	No
Steele County	North Dakota	20.4%	1.9%	17.7%	Democratic	4	0.4%	-18.1%	No
Ashtabula County	Ohio	13.5%	12.8%	18.8%	Republican	5,303	16.5%	-2.3%	No
Erie County	Ohio	13.9%	12.3%	9.5%	Democratic	2,299	7.6%	-17.1%	No
Montgomery County	Ohio	6.2%	4.6%	0.7%	Republican	15,113	7.3%	6.6%	Yes
Ottawa County	Ohio	6.2%	4.3%	19.5%	Republican	2,187	11.9%	-7.6%	No
Portage County	Ohio	9.0%	5.5%	9.9%	Democratic	370	0.6%	-10.5%	No
Sandusky County	Ohio	4.6%	2.7%	22.6%	Republican	4,424	20.2%	-2.4%	No
Stark County	Ohio	5.5%	0.5%	17.2%	Republican	11,185	8.1%	-9.1%	No
Trumbull County	Ohio	22.4%	23.0%	6.2%	Democratic	8,097	10.8%	-17.0%	No
Wood County	Ohio	7.1%	4.8%	8.0%	Republican	6,113	12.2%	4.3%	Yes
Columbia County	Oregon	12.0%	5.2%	11.5%	Democratic	1,488	6.2%	-17.6%	No
Tillamook County	Oregon	9.9%	4.9%	5.6%	Democratic	1,084	8.4%	-14.0%	No
Erie County	Pennsylvania	19.9%	16.0%	1.6%	Democratic	19,922	19.6%	-21.1%	No
Luzerne County	Pennsylvania	8.4%	4.8%	19.3%	Republican	367	0.3%	-19.0%	No
Northampton County	Pennsylvania	12.3%	4.7%	3.8%	Democratic	7,505	6.5%	-10.3%	No
Kent County	Rhode Island	17.4%	17.7%	0.7%	Democratic	15,204	22.7%	-23.4%	No
Barnwell County	South Carolina	1.7%	5.3%	5.2%	Republican	500	6.8%	1.6%	Yes
Calhoun County	South Carolina	3.6%	4.3%	2.8%	Democratic	118	2.0%	-4.8%	No
Chester County	South Carolina	8.3%	10.6%	4.8%	Republican	514	4.7%	-0.1%	No
Colleton County	South Carolina	0.5%	0.2%	8.5%	Republican	252	1.9%	-6.6%	No
McCormick County	South Carolina	6.1%	3.6%	3.3%	Republican	271	6.1%	2.8%	Yes
Corson County	South Dakota	21.5%	11.1%	4.5%	Democratic	73	6.7%	-11.2%	No
Day County	South Dakota	12.9%	6.2%	23.8%	Republican	469	17.3%	-6.5%	No
Marshall County	South Dakota	16.5%	8.7%	15.5%	Republican	164	8.4%	-7.1%	No
Roberts County	South Dakota	19.6%	9.8%	15.5%	Republican	251	6.8%	-8.7%	No
Ziebach County	South Dakota	27.2%	16.4%	2.0%	Democratic	77	9.7%	-11.6%	No
Hardeman County	Tennessee	6.2%	5.9%	7.9%	Republican	592	8.3%	0.4%	Yes
Jefferson County	Texas	2.3%	1.6%	0.5%	Republican	804	1.1%	0.6%	Yes
Essex County	Vermont	14.5%	13.4%	16.7%	Democratic	148	6.8%	-23.4%	No
Buckingham County	Virginia	0.9%	2.4%	11.3%	Republican	626	10.3%	-1.0%	No
Caroline County	Virginia	12.0%	8.2%	5.0%	Republican	200	1.8%	-3.3%	No
Essex County	Virginia	10.4%	7.3%	2.1%	Republican	200	4.5%	2.4%	Yes
Nelson County	Virginia	9.2%	2.7%	5.6%	Republican	17	0.2%	-5.4%	No
Westmoreland County	Virginia	10.2%	7.0%	7.1%	Republican	707	10.1%	3.0%	Yes
Clallam County	Washington	3.3%	0.4%	2.8%	Democratic	6,082	15.5%	-18.3%	No
Cowlitz County	Washington	11.2%	4.4%	13.3%	Republican	5,458	12.3%	-1.0%	No
Grays Harbor County	Washington	14.6%	14.1%	7.0%	Democratic	2,884	10.2%	-17.2%	No
Mason County	Washington	8.7%	7.1%	5.8%	Democratic	2,228	8.1%	-13.9%	No
Pacific County	Washington	14.1%	11.5%	6.7%	Republican	119	1.1%	-5.6%	No
Adams County	Wisconsin	18.4%	8.7%	21.9%	Republican	234	2.5%	-19.4%	No
Buffalo County	Wisconsin	14.7%	2.9%	21.8%	Democratic	752	12.7%	-34.5%	No
Columbia County	Wisconsin	15.3%	13.6%	2.1%	Democratic	1,533	5.8%	-7.9%	No
Crawford County	Wisconsin	27.0%	20.0%	5.4%	Democratic	1,922	29.3%	-34.7%	No
Door County	Wisconsin	17.3%	7.0%	3.2%	Republican	2,838	16.8%	13.6%	Yes
Dunn County	Wisconsin	15.0%	5.0%	11.1%	Democratic	2,254	12.3%	-23.4%	No
Forest County	Wisconsin	15.2%	5.4%	26.6%	Republican	1,338	33.8%	7.2%	Yes
Grant County	Wisconsin	23.9%	13.8%	9.4%	Democratic	3,081	15.9%	-25.3%	No
Jackson County	Wisconsin	21.8%	15.0%	11.7%	Democratic	1,527	19.1%	-30.8%	No
Juneau County	Wisconsin	9.0%	7.0%	26.1%	Republican	746	7.4%	-18.6%	No
Kenosha County	Wisconsin	18.1%	12.2%	0.3%	Democratic	1,346	2.0%	-2.3%	No
Lafayette County	Wisconsin	22.3%	15.4%	9.0%	Democratic	4,462	95.6%	-104.6%	No
Lincoln County	Wisconsin	12.5%	0.7%	20.6%	Republican	4,123	30.7%	10.1%	Yes
Marquette County	Wisconsin	5.3%	0.3%	24.1%	Republican	1,128	16.0%	-8.1%	No
Pepin County	Wisconsin	12.9%	2.2%	23.1%	Democratic	176	5.7%	-28.8%	No
Price County	Wisconsin	13.4%	0.0%	25.0%	Republican	1,723	25.9%	0.9%	Yes
Racine County	Wisconsin	7.4%	3.5%	4.3%	Republican	5,075	5.9%	1.6%	Yes
Richland County	Wisconsin	20.6%	16.1%	5.5%	Democratic	2,026	30.6%	-36.1%	No
Sauk County	Wisconsin	23.0%	18.5%	0.4%	Democratic	19,755	100.0%	-100.3%	No
Sawyer County	Wisconsin	6.2%	0.5%	18.4%	Republican	1,206	14.8%	-3.6%	No
Trempealeau County	Wisconsin	26.4%	14.1%	12.6%	Democratic	2,176	17.9%	-30.5%	No
Vernon County	Wisconsin	22.0%	14.7%	4.4%	Democratic	3,123	24.1%	-28.5%	No
Winnebago County	Wisconsin	11.7%	3.7%	7.3%	Democratic	841	1.1%	-8.5%	No

Results by district

There are 99 Congressional districts that intersect with pivot counties.

Heading into the 2018 election, 63 of these Congressional seats were held by Republicans and 36 were controlled by Democrats. Twelve of these seats switched parties, with 10 of them changing from Republican to Democratic hands, and two of them going from Democratic to Republican. Following the 2018 elections, Republicans controlled 54 of these Congressional districts and Democrats controlled 44. The state board of elections declined to certify results for the election in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District.

In seven districts, Democrats picked up seats that had been held by Republicans since at least 2012. Democrats gained three other seats across the 99 districts.

Republicans were able to flip two seats in this set of districts, claiming a pair of seats in Minnesota with Democratic incumbents that Donald Trump (R) won in 2016.

Across all 435 districts, Republicans lost a net of 36 of their 235 seats (15 percent). In the 99 districts that contain pivot counties, Republicans lost a net of eight of their 63 seats (13 percent).

Note: There are four districts in Pennsylvania that intersected with a pivot county as of November 2018: the 7th, 8th, 9th, and 16th districts. They are not included in this study due to redistricting that occurred in 2018.

Partisan breakdown of districts overlapping with pivot counties
Party		As of November 2018	After the 2018 Election
	Democratic Party	36	44
	Republican Party	63	54
	Vacant	0	1
Total		99	99

The table below shows the districts intersecting with pivot counties that changed partisan hands in 2018.

Districts that changed partisan hands in 2018
District	Party of incumbent	Winning party
Florida 26	Republican	Democratic
Iowa 1	Republican	Democratic
Iowa 3	Republican	Democratic
Maine 2	Republican	Democratic
Minnesota 1	Democratic	Republican
Minnesota 2	Republican	Democratic
Minnesota 8	Democratic	Republican
New Jersey 2	Republican	Democratic
New Mexico 2	Republican	Democratic
New York 19	Republican	Democratic
New York 22	Republican	Democratic
South Carolina 1	Republican	Democratic

The table below details election results for the Congressional districts in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. Click [show] below to view the full data for the Congressional districts that intersect with pivot counties in the 2018 elections.

2018 Congressional election results by district
District	Pivot Counties	2012 MoV	2012 Winner	2014 MoV	2014 Winner	2016 MoV	2016 Winner	2018 MoV	2018 Winner	Flipped in 2018?
Arkansas 1	Woodruff	17.1%		30.9%		52.6%		40.17%		No
Colorado 3	Conejos, Huerfano, Pueblo	12.3%		22.3%		14.3%		7.97%		No
Colorado 4	Las Animas	21.7%		35.4%		31.9%		21.24%		No
Connecticut 2	Windham	38.9%		26.7%		29.6%		26.72%		No
Delaware At-Large	Kent	31.5%		22.5%		14.6%		28.91%		No
Florida 2	Jefferson	5.5%		1.1%		37.4%		34.88%		No
Florida 12	Pinellas	30.5%		100.0%		37.2%		18.43%		No
Florida 13	Pinellas	15.1%		50.5%		3.8%		15.29%		No
Florida 18	St. Lucie	0.6%		19.6%		10.5%		8.60%		No
Florida 26	Monroe	10.6%		2.9%		11.8%		1.75%		Yes
Georgia 2	Baker, Dooly, Peach, Quitman	27.6%		18.3%		22.5%		19.30%		No
Georgia 8	Twiggs	100.0%		100.0%		35.3%		100.00%		No
Illinois 12	Alexander	8.9%		10.6%		14.6%		6.18%		No
Illinois 16	Putnam	23.6%		41.2%		99.9%		18.25%		No
Illinois 17	Carroll, Fulton, Henderson, Henry, Jo Daviess, Knox, Mercer, Warren, Whiteside	6.6%		10.9%		20.6%		24.19%		No
Indiana 1	LaPorte, Porter	34.6%		25.0%		63.0%		30.19%		No
Indiana 2	LaPorte	1.4%		20.7%		22.3%		9.67%		No
Indiana 6	Delaware	24.0%		36.5%		42.4%		30.96%		No
Indiana 8	Perry, Vigo	10.3%		24.5%		32.0%		28.86%		No
Iowa 1	Allamakee, Bremer, Buchanan, Clayton, Dubuque, Fayette, Howard, Jackson, Jones, Marshall, Mitchell, Poweshiek, Tama, Winneshiek, Worth	15.4%		2.3%		7.7%		5.06%		Yes
Iowa 2	Cedar, Clarke, Clinton, Des Moines, Jasper, Jefferson, Lee, Louisa, Muscatine, Wapello	13.1%		5.1%		7.5%		12.19%		No
Iowa 3	Union	8.6%		10.5%		13.7%		2.16%		Yes
Iowa 4	Boone, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Floyd, Webster	8.1%		23.3%		22.6%		3.33%		No
Kentucky 5	Elliott	55.8%		56.5%		100.0%		57.89%		No
Maine 1	Kennebec	28.3%		28.5%		16.0%		26.31%		No
Maine 2	Kennebec, Androscoggin, Aroostook, Franklin, Oxford, Penobscot, Somerset, Washington	15.7%		5.0%		9.6%		1.25%		Yes
Michigan 1	Gogebic, Manistee	0.5%		6.9%		14.8%		12.63%		No
Michigan 2	Lake	26.9%		30.4%		30.1%		12.35%		No
Michigan 3	Calhoun	8.4%		18.9%		21.9%		11.24%		No
Michigan 4	Isabella, Saginaw, Shiawassee	29.5%		17.4%		29.5%		25.25%		No
Michigan 5	Saginaw, Bay	33.5%		35.5%		26.1%		23.60%		No
Michigan 6	Van Buren	12.0%		15.5%		22.2%		4.55%		No
Michigan 7	Eaton, Monroe	10.3%		12.3%		15.0%		7.59%		No
Michigan 9	Macomb	27.9%		24.3%		20.5%		22.86%		No
Michigan 10	Macomb	39.1%		39.3%		30.8%		25.32%		No
Minnesota 1	Blue Earth, Fillmore, Freeborn, Houston, Mower, Nicollet, Rice, Winona	15.2%		8.5%		0.8%		0.45%		Yes
Minnesota 2	Rice	8.2%		17.2%		1.8%		5.51%		Yes
Minnesota 7	Beltrami, Chippewa, Clay, Kittson, Lac qui Parle, Mahnomen, Norman, Swift, Traverse	25.5%		8.5%		5.0%		4.26%		No
Minnesota 8	Beltrami, Itasca, Koochiching	8.9%		1.4%		0.6%		5.54%		Yes
Mississippi 1	Chickasaw	23.5%		39.0%		40.8%		34.52%		No
Mississippi 2	Panola	36.2%		43.2%		38.0%		50.06%		No
Montana At-Large	Blaine, Hill, Roosevelt	10.5%		15.0%		15.6%		4.63%		No
Nebraska 1	Thurston	36.6%		37.6%		38.9%		20.72%		No
New Hampshire 1	Hillsborough	3.8%		3.6%		1.3%		8.55%		No
New Hampshire 2	Hillsborough, Coos, Sullivan	4.8%		10.0%		4.4%		13.36%		No
New Jersey 1	Gloucester	38.3%		18.0%		23.2%		31.13%		No
New Jersey 2	Gloucester, Salem	17.4%		24.2%		22.0%		7.67%		Yes
New Mexico 1	Valencia	18.3%		17.2%		30.3%		22.81%		No
New Mexico 2	Valencia, Hidalgo	18.2%		28.9%		25.5%		1.87%		Yes
New Mexico 3	Colfax	26.2%		23.1%		24.8%		32.17%		No
New York 1	Suffolk	4.6%		8.7%		17.9%		4.09%		No
New York 2	Suffolk	15.4%		36.4%		24.9%		6.22%		No
New York 3	Suffolk	14.6%		9.2%		5.6%		17.95%		No
New York 18	Orange	3.7%		1.8%		11.2%		10.94%		No
New York 19	Broome, Otsego, Rensselaer, Sullivan	5.3%		28.1%		8.6%		5.21%		Yes
New York 20	Rensselaer, Saratoga	34.5%		21.7%		35.8%		32.99%		No
New York 21	Broome, Saratoga, Essex, Franklin, St. Lawrence, Warren, Washington	1.9%		20.5%		35.1%		13.68%		No
New York 22	Cortland, Madison, Oswego	19.9%		48.1%		5.5%		1.78%		Yes
New York 23	Seneca	3.6%		21.9%		15.2%		8.48%		No
New York 24	Oswego, Cayuga	5.3%		18.8%		21.1%		5.26%		No
New York 26	Niagara	46.2%		34.7%		49.2%		46.68%		No
New York 27	Niagara	1.5%		39.9%		34.4%		0.38%		No
North Carolina 1	Gates, Granville, Martin	52.5%		46.8%		39.7%		39.70%		No
North Carolina 7	Bladen, Robeson	0.2%		22.2%		21.8%		12.74%		No
North Carolina 9	Bladen, Richmond, Robeson	6.10%		92.50%		16.40%		N/A	N/A	N/A
North Dakota At-Large	Benson, Ransom, Sargent, Steele	13.2%		17.1%		45.4%		24.63%		No
Ohio 4	Erie, Sandusky	21.9%		35.3%		36.0%		30.53%		No
Ohio 5	Ottawa, Wood	18.1%		37.5%		41.8%		27.12%		No
Ohio 7	Stark	12.8%		100.0%		35.1%		17.49%		No
Ohio 9	Erie, Ottawa	50.0%		35.6%		37.4%		35.59%		No
Ohio 10	Montgomery	22.1%		33.6%		31.4%		13.76%		No
Ohio 13	Stark, Portage, Trumbull	45.5%		37.0%		35.5%		21.99%		No
Ohio 14	Portage, Trumbull, Ashtabula	15.3%		30.2%		25.2%		10.50%		No
Ohio 16	Stark, Portage	4.1%		27.5%		30.7%		13.46%		No
Oregon 1	Columbia	26.6%		22.8%		22.6%		31.59%		No
Oregon 5	Tillamook	11.6%		14.4%		10.5%		13.20%		No
Rhode Island 2	Kent	20.6%		24.6%		27.4%		27.21%		No
South Carolina 1	Colleton	26.3%		86.8%		21.7%		1.39%		Yes
South Carolina 2	Barnwell	92.5%		27.2%		24.4%		13.78%		No
South Carolina 3	McCormick	33.3%		42.4%		45.8%		36.82%		No
South Carolina 5	Chester	11.1%		21.3%		20.5%		15.54%		No
South Carolina 6	Colleton, Calhoun	88.1%		47.0%		42.5%		41.89%		No
South Dakota At-Large	Corson, Day, Marshall, Roberts, Ziebach	14.9%		33.1%		28.2%		24.31%		No
Tennessee 7	Hardeman	47.0%		43.2%		48.7%		34.75%		No
Texas 14	Jefferson	8.9%		25.8%		23.7%		19.93%		No
Vermont At-Large	Essex	48.7%		33.4%		79.6%		43.25%		No
Virginia 1	Caroline, Essex, Westmoreland	15.1%		28.5%		23.3%		10.47%		No
Virginia 4	Chesapeake City	14.0%		22.6%		15.7%		26.66%		No
Virginia 5	Buckingham, Nelson	12.6%		25.0%		16.7%		6.53%		No
Virginia 9	Covington City	22.7%		47.9%		40.3%		30.41%		No
Washington 3	Cowlitz, Pacific	20.8%		23.1%		23.5%		5.34%		No
Washington 6	Clallam, Grays Harbor, Mason	18.0%		26.0%		23.1%		27.77%		No
Washington 10	Mason	17.1%		9.4%		17.3%		23.09%		No
Wisconsin 1	Kenosha, Racine	11.5%		26.6%		34.8%		12.29%		No
Wisconsin 2	Lafayette, Richland, Sauk	36.0%		36.9%		37.6%		94.86%		No
Wisconsin 3	Richland, Adams, Buffalo, Crawford, Dunn, Grant, Jackson, Juneau, Pepin, Trempeleau, Vernon	28.3%		13.0%		99.9%		19.34%		No
Wisconsin 6	Columbia, Marquette, Winnebago	24.3%		15.9%		19.9%		11.01%		No
Wisconsin 7	Jackson, Juneau, Forest, Lincoln, Price, Sawyer	12.3%		19.9%		23.4%		21.61%		No
Wisconsin 8	Winnebago, Door	12.0%		30.1%		25.4%		27.42%		No

About the data

The election results data by county for this study were provided by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Some pivot counties overlap with multiple Congressional districts. In those cases, the county's total votes are applied to the results totals of both Congressional districts. Some races may have only had a candidate from one of the two major parties. They may have included an independent or third-party candidate instead. There may be some cases where only one candidate ran at all. There are some cases where a margin of victory change in a county is close to or above -100.00% or 100.00%. This is because a county only had one major party candidate running in a U.S. House race, or one major party candidate and write-in candidates.

See also

• List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
• Reverse-Pivot Counties: The counties that voted McCain-Romney-Clinton from 2008-2016
• Presidential election, 2016