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Reverse-Pivot Counties: The counties that voted McCain-Romney-Clinton from 2008-2016
Six counties voted for Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 after voting for John McCain (R) in 2008 and Mitt Romney (R) in 2012.[1] These counties had the opposite voting pattern of the 206 Pivot Counties, which voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. The Reverse-Pivot Counties, identified as part of a Ballotpedia study of the 2016 presidential election, were larger on average than their counterparts, with an average population of 971,164 compared to 78,018 for Pivot Counties.
List of counties
The following table lists all of the Reverse-Pivot Counties that voted for McCain in 2008, Romney in 2012, and Clinton in 2016, along with the margin of victory in each of those elections.
| Counties Won By Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Clinton Margin of Victory in 2016 | Romney Margin of Victory in 2012 | McCain Margin of Victory in 2008 |
| Orange County, California | California | 8.59% | 6.23% | 2.56% |
| Cobb County, Georgia | Georgia | 2.16% | 12.45% | 9.43% |
| Gwinnett County, Georgia | Georgia | 5.79% | 9.22% | 10.24% |
| Henry County, Georgia | Georgia | 4.36% | 3.30% | 7.46% |
| Anne Arundel County, Maryland | Maryland | 2.23% | 0.08% | 1.80% |
| Fort Bend County, Texas | Texas | 6.64% | 6.83% | 2.39% |
| Average | 4.96% | 6.35% | 5.64% | |
The following map displays the Reverse-Pivot Counties that voted for McCain, Romney, and Clinton:
2018 elections
Democratic candidates for the U.S. House won all six reverse pivot counties in 2018. The average margin of victory in these counties was 11.05 percent. Cobb County, Georgia, had the lowest margin of victory with 7.18 percent and Henry County, Georgia, had the highest with 14.59 percent.
In five of the six counties, the Democratic U.S. House candidate in 2018 had a larger margin of victory than Clinton did in 2016. Orange County, California was the only exception, where the Democratic U.S. House candidate had a 0.26 percent smaller margin of victory than Clinton. Clinton’s average margin of victory in 2016 in these counties was 4.96 percent while for Democratic U.S. House candidates in 2018 it was 11.05 percent. Clinton’s median margin of victory was 5.08 percent while for Democratic U.S. House candidates it was 11.77 percent.
To read our full analysis, click here.
Demographics
The table below shows the demographics of the entire U.S. population compared with the demographics of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties and 206 Pivot Counties. Averages for the United States used in population estimates were calculated using 3,156 counties. The numbers in the "Average" column were found by averaging the demographic percentages of each of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties and 206 Pivot Counties—not by calculating demographics across the populations of those counties. This table was compiled by Ballotpedia staff based on data made available via the U.S. Census Bureau website.[2]
The data reveals that Reverse-Pivot Counties were far larger than Pivot Counties, with a median population of 636,727 to 32,956. In terms of racial and ethnic makeup, the six counties were far less white (57.9 percent to 92.5 percent), more African-American (22.6 percent to 2.0 percent), more Asian (7.6 percent to 0.7 percent), and more Hispanic (16.2 percent to 3.3 percent). Reverse-Pivot Counties had a more college-educated population, with 38.9 percent receiving college degrees compared to 18.6 percent in Pivot Counties. Economic statistics were also different between the two sets of counties: Reverse-Pivots had almost double the annual household income ($80,173 to $47,427) and half as many individuals living below the poverty level (7.5 percent to 14.2 percent).
| Demographics of 2016 Reverse-Pivot Counties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Reverse-Pivot Counties | Pivot Counties | |||
| Demographic | U.S. Average | Average | Median | Average | Median |
| County population | 97,828[3] | 971,164 | 636,727 | 78,018 | 32,956 |
| Female persons, percent | 50.8% | 51.0% | 50.8% | 49.9% | 50.2% |
| White alone, percent | 77.1% | 59.6% | 57.9% | 85.5% | 92.5% |
| Black or African American alone, percent | 13.3% | 20.7% | 22.6% | 7.9% | 2.0% |
| American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Asian alone, percent | 5.6% | 9.4% | 7.55% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Hispanic or Latino, percent | 17.6% | 17.0% | 16.2% | 6.2% | 3.3% |
| High school graduate or higher, percent of persons age 25 years+, 2011-2015 | 86.7% | 89.0% | 89.3% | 87.9% | 89.0% |
| Bachelor's degree or higher, percent of persons age 25 years+, 2011-2015 | 29.8% | 38.3% | 38.9% | 19.6% | 18.6% |
| Median household income (in 2015 dollars), 2011-2015 | $53,889 | $77,974 | $80,173 | $47,228 | $47,427 |
| Persons in poverty, percent[4] | 13.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 15.6% | 14.2% |
| Source: United States Census Bureau | |||||
Congressional districts
The table below shows U.S. House districts that intersected with Reverse-Pivot Counties as of April 2017. The middle three columns show the margin of victory (MoV) for Clinton in 2016, Romney in 2012, and McCain in 2008. The column on the right indicates which party controlled the district as of April 2017. This table was compiled by Ballotpedia staff based on data made available via the U.S. Census Bureau website.[2]
- The table below includes 22 U.S. House districts. The number of districts per Reverse-Pivot County (3.67) is significantly higher than rate at which the 206 Pivot Counties intersected with 108 seats (0.52 seats per county).
- As of April 2017, Republicans controlled 11 (50 percent) of these districts, while Democrats also controlled 11 (50 percent). This is more balanced than the 108 Pivot County seats, which had 68 Republican incumbents and 40 Democratic incumbents.
- None of these districts changed partisan hands in the 2016 Congressional elections. One Pivot County district changed hands from Republican to Democratic in 2016.
| U.S. House districts intersecting with Pivot Counties as of April 2017 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Clinton MoV 2016 | Romney MoV 2012 | McCain MoV 2008 | District | Party |
| Orange | California | 8.59% | 6.23% | 2.56% | District 38 | D |
| District 39 | R | |||||
| District 45 | R | |||||
| District 46 | D | |||||
| District 47 | D | |||||
| District 48 | R | |||||
| District 49 | R | |||||
| Cobb | Georgia | 2.16% | 12.45% | 9.43% | District 6 | R |
| District 11 | R | |||||
| District 13 | D | |||||
| Gwinnett | Georgia | 5.79% | 9.22% | 10.24% | District 4 | D |
| District 7 | R | |||||
| District 10 | R | |||||
| Henry | Georgia | 4.36% | 3.30% | 7.46% | District 3 | R |
| District 10 | R | |||||
| District 13 | D | |||||
| Anne Arundel | Maryland | 2.23% | 0.08% | 1.80% | District 2 | D |
| District 3 | D | |||||
| District 4 | D | |||||
| District 5 | D | |||||
| Fort Bend | Texas | 6.64% | 6.83% | 2.39% | District 9 | D |
| District 22 | R | |||||
State legislative districts
State senate districts
The table below shows state senate districts that intersected with Reverse-Pivot Counties as of April 2017. The middle three columns show the margin of victory (MoV) for Clinton in 2016, Romney in 2012, and McCain in 2008. The column on the right indicates which party controlled the district as of April 2017. This table was compiled by Ballotpedia staff based on data made available via the U.S. Census Bureau website.[2]
- The table below includes the 28 senate districts that intersected with Reverse-Pivot Counties as of April 2017. Pivot Counties intersected with 233 senate districts.
- As of April 2017, Republicans controlled 15 (53.57 percent) of these senate districts, while Democrats controlled 13 (46.42 percent). This is a signficant difference from Pivot County districts, where Republicans controlled 155 (66.52 percent) of the districts, while Democrats controlled 78 (33.48 percent).
| State senate districts intersecting with Pivot Counties as of April 2017 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Clinton MoV 2016 | Romney MoV 2012 | McCain MoV 2008 | District | Party |
| Orange | California | 8.59% | 6.23% | 2.56% | District 29 | D |
| District 32 | D | |||||
| District 34 | R | |||||
| District 36 | R | |||||
| District 37 | R | |||||
| Cobb | Georgia | 2.16% | 12.45% | 9.43% | District 6 | D |
| District 14 | R | |||||
| District 32 | R | |||||
| District 33 | D | |||||
| District 37 | R | |||||
| District 38 | D | |||||
| Gwinnett | Georgia | 5.79% | 9.22% | 10.24% | District 5 | D |
| District 9 | R | |||||
| District 40 | R | |||||
| District 41 | D | |||||
| District 45 | R | |||||
| District 48 | R | |||||
| District 55 | D | |||||
| Henry | Georgia | 4.36% | 3.30% | 7.46% | District 10 | D |
| District 17 | R | |||||
| Anne Arundel | Maryland | 2.23% | 0.08% | 1.80% | District 21 | D |
| District 30 | D | |||||
| District 31 | R | |||||
| District 32 | D | |||||
| District 33 | R | |||||
| Fort Bend | Texas | 6.64% | 6.83% | 2.39% | District 13 | D |
| District 17 | R | |||||
| District 18 | R | |||||
State house districts
The table below shows state house districts that intersected with Reverse-Pivot Counties as of April 2017. The middle three columns show the margin of victory (MoV) for Clinton in 2016, Romney in 2012, and McCain in 2008. The column on the right indicates which party controlled the district as of April 2017. This table was compiled by Ballotpedia staff based on data made available via the U.S. Census Bureau website.[2]
- The table below includes the 67 house districts that intersected with Reverse-Pivot Counties as of April 2017. Pivot Counties intersected with 477 house districts.
- As of April 2017, Republicans controlled 40 (59.70 percent) of these house districts, while Democrats controlled 27 (40.30 percent). This is a slight difference from Pivot County districts, where Republicans controlled 268 (56.18 percent) of the districts, while Democrats controlled 188 (39.41 percent).
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Presidential election, 2016
- Reverse pivot counties: How McCain-Romney-Clinton counties voted in the 2018 U.S. House elections
- Election results, 2020: Reverse-Pivot Counties
Footnotes
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 United States Census Bureau, "State Legislative Districts Relationship Files," accessed April 18, 2018 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; name "census" defined multiple times with different content Cite error: Invalid<ref>tag; name "census" defined multiple times with different content Cite error: Invalid<ref>tag; name "census" defined multiple times with different content - ↑ 2010 U.S. population estimate: 308,745,538
- ↑ The U.S. Census Bureau states that "geographic level of poverty and health estimates are not comparable to other geographic levels of these estimates."
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