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Pivot Counties: How the 206 Obama-Obama-Trump counties intersect with state legislative districts
A total of 206 counties, scattered mostly throughout the northern midwest and northeast, voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and then voted for Republican Donald Trump in 2016. As of April 2017, 477 state house districts and 233 state senate districts intersected with these Pivot Counties. This includes districts that intersected with only small portions of a county as well as districts that overlapped with multiple counties. These 710 state legislative districts account for approximately 10 percent of all state legislative districts in the country. These counties are sometimes referred to as swing counties by media and political observers.
State house districts
The table below shows state house districts that intersected with Pivot Counties as of April 2017. The middle three columns show the margin of victory (MoV) for Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008. The column on the right indicates which party controlled the district as of April 2017. For multi-member districts, MM means that control of the district was divided between two or more parties. However, if every representative in a multi-member district belonged to the same party, a D or R is listed. This table was compiled by Ballotpedia staff based on data made available via the U.S. Census Bureau website.[1]
Key data points
- The table below includes 477 house districts.
- As of April 2017, Republicans controlled 268 (56.18 percent) of these house districts, while Democrats controlled 188 (39.41 percent). This corresponds closely with the partisan makeup of state house districts throughout the country. Nationally, as of April 2017, Republicans controlled 56.23 percent of all state house seats. Democrats controlled 42.96 percent.
- A total of 20 districts (4.19 percent) were multi-member districts with incumbents that included Democrats and Republicans.
- One district (0.21 percent) had an independent incumbent: Kent Ackley in Maine HD 82. He was elected in 2016, defeating Republican incumbent Randall Greenwood 53.09 to 46.91 percent.
- Maine had the most house districts intersecting with Pivot Counties, with 76 districts. New Hampshire had the second most, with 63.
State senate districts
The table below shows state senate districts that intersected with Pivot Counties as of April 2017. The middle three columns show the margin of victory (MoV) for Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008. The column on the right indicates which party controlled the district as of April 2017. This table was compiled by Ballotpedia staff based on data made available via the U.S. Census Bureau website.[1]
Key data points
- The table below includes 233 senate districts.
- As of April 2017, Republicans controlled 155 (66.52 percent) of these senate districts, while Democrats controlled 78 (33.48 percent). This deviates slightly from the partisan makeup of state senate districts throughout the country. Nationally, as of April 2017, Republicans controlled 58.41 percent of all state senate seats. Democrats controlled 40.92 percent.
- Senate districts intersecting with Pivot Counties were held exclusively by Democrats and Republicans.
- Iowa had the most senate districts intersecting with Pivot Counties, with 21 districts. New York had the second most, with 20.
| State senate districts intersecting with Pivot Counties as of April 2017 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Trump MoV 2016 | Obama MoV 2012 | Obama MoV 2008 | District | Party |
| Woodruff | Arkansas | 8.91% | 4.21% | 7.46% | District 23 | R |
| District 28 | R | |||||
| Conejos | Colorado | 3.56% | 9.22% | 12.93% | District 35 | R |
| Huerfano | Colorado | 6.61% | 8.27% | 11.23% | District 35 | R |
| Las Animas | Colorado | 15.60% | 2.65% | 7.04% | District 35 | R |
| Pueblo | Colorado | 0.50% | 13.99% | 14.97% | District 3 | D |
| District 35 | R | |||||
| Windham | Connecticut | 7.78% | 13.28% | 14.68% | District 18 | R |
| District 29 | D | |||||
| District 35 | R | |||||
| Kent | Delaware | 4.87% | 4.94% | 9.81% | District 14 | D |
| District 15 | R | |||||
| District 16 | R | |||||
| District 17 | D | |||||
| District 18 | R | |||||
| Jefferson | Florida | 5.06% | 1.75% | 3.66% | District 3 | D |
| Monroe | Florida | 6.82% | 0.44% | 4.90% | District 39 | R |
| Pinellas | Florida | 1.11% | 5.65% | 8.25% | District 19 | D |
| District 20 | R | |||||
| District 22 | R | |||||
| St. Lucie | Florida | 2.40% | 7.86% | 12.12% | District 21 | R |
| District 32 | D | |||||
| Baker | Georgia | 8.68% | 0.57% | 1.07% | District 12 | D |
| Dooly | Georgia | 2.05% | 6.98% | 3.53% | District 13 | R |
| Peach | Georgia | 2.91% | 7.48% | 6.75% | District 18 | R |
| Quitman | Georgia | 10.92% | 9.04% | 7.90% | District 12 | D |
| Twiggs | Georgia | 1.58% | 8.64% | 6.97% | District 26 | D |
| Alexander | Illinois | 8.30% | 13.65% | 12.62% | District 59 | R |
| Carroll | Illinois | 26.69% | 1.49% | 4.81% | District 36 | R |
| District 45 | R | |||||
| Fulton | Illinois | 14.93% | 11.04% | 21.33% | District 46 | D |
| District 47 | R | |||||
| Henderson | Illinois | 28.43% | 12.25% | 17.67% | District 47 | R |
| Henry | Illinois | 20.99% | 3.08% | 7.74% | District 36 | R |
| District 37 | R | |||||
| Jo Daviess | Illinois | 14.64% | 1.16% | 10.49% | District 45 | R |
| Knox | Illinois | 2.91% | 17.37% | 19.89% | District 37 | R |
| District 47 | R | |||||
| Mercer | Illinois | 20.36% | 7.39% | 11.91% | District 37 | R |
| Putnam | Illinois | 19.92% | 1.82% | 15.64% | District 38 | R |
| Warren | Illinois | 16.50% | 5.47% | 8.08% | District 47 | R |
| Whiteside | Illinois | 6.18% | 17.02% | 17.56% | District 36 | R |
| District 45 | R | |||||
| Delaware | Indiana | 13.43% | 3.12% | 14.98% | District 25 | D |
| District 26 | R | |||||
| LaPorte | Indiana | 6.33% | 12.57% | 22.04% | District 4 | D |
| District 5 | R | |||||
| District 8 | R | |||||
| Perry | Indiana | 18.55% | 11.59% | 22.84% | District 47 | R |
| Porter | Indiana | 6.59% | 3.90% | 7.20% | District 4 | D |
| District 5 | R | |||||
| Vigo | Indiana | 14.97% | 0.86% | 15.83% | District 5 | R |
| Allamakee | Iowa | 24.15% | 4.17% | 14.25% | District 28 | R |
| Boone | Iowa | 13.69% | 6.64% | 7.63% | District 24 | R |
| Bremer | Iowa | 13.68% | 2.68% | 9.31% | District 32 | R |
| Buchanan | Iowa | 15.02% | 13.87% | 18.48% | District 32 | R |
| District 48 | R | |||||
| Cedar | Iowa | 17.78% | 4.59% | 9.64% | District 37 | D |
| Cerro Gordo | Iowa | 7.66% | 13.38% | 20.83% | District 26 | R |
| District 27 | D | |||||
| Chickasaw | Iowa | 22.94% | 11.07% | 20.74% | District 26 | R |
| Clarke | Iowa | 28.02% | 1.47% | 2.25% | District 14 | R |
| Clayton | Iowa | 22.78% | 7.03% | 17.17% | District 28 | R |
| Clinton | Iowa | 5.12% | 22.84% | 23.03% | District 49 | D |
| Des Moines | Iowa | 6.89% | 18.41% | 23.04% | District 44 | R |
| Dubuque | Iowa | 1.23% | 14.71% | 20.77% | District 29 | D |
| District 50 | D | |||||
| Fayette | Iowa | 19.36% | 11.96% | 16.60% | District 28 | R |
| District 32 | R | |||||
| Floyd | Iowa | 14.84% | 14.63% | 21.88% | District 26 | R |
| Howard | Iowa | 20.49% | 20.95% | 25.78% | District 26 | R |
| Jackson | Iowa | 19.27% | 16.89% | 24.39% | District 29 | D |
| Jasper | Iowa | 18.13% | 7.07% | 7.50% | District 14 | R |
| District 15 | D | |||||
| Jefferson | Iowa | 0.47% | 15.97% | 20.23% | District 41 | R |
| District 42 | D | |||||
| Jones | Iowa | 19.08% | 7.78% | 10.40% | District 29 | D |
| District 48 | R | |||||
| Lee | Iowa | 16.02% | 15.49% | 16.01% | District 42 | D |
| Louisa | Iowa | 28.37% | 0.64% | 4.25% | District 44 | R |
| Marshall | Iowa | 8.31% | 9.36% | 9.35% | District 36 | R |
| Mitchell | Iowa | 24.04% | 3.37% | 12.31% | District 26 | R |
| Muscatine | Iowa | 6.26% | 15.88% | 15.64% | District 37 | D |
| District 44 | R | |||||
| District 46 | R | |||||
| Poweshiek | Iowa | 6.53% | 9.35% | 11.75% | District 38 | R |
| Tama | Iowa | 20.28% | 7.43% | 12.19% | District 36 | R |
| Union | Iowa | 27.49% | 3.86% | 3.70% | District 11 | R |
| Wapello | Iowa | 20.60% | 11.88% | 13.53% | District 40 | R |
| District 41 | R | |||||
| Webster | Iowa | 21.52% | 5.84% | 8.51% | District 5 | R |
| District 24 | R | |||||
| Winneshiek | Iowa | 0.79% | 14.74% | 22.65% | District 26 | R |
| District 28 | R | |||||
| Worth | Iowa | 21.68% | 14.53% | 22.42% | District 26 | R |
| Elliott | Kentucky | 44.13% | 2.50% | 25.17% | District 31 | D |
| Androscoggin | Maine | 9.38% | 12.78% | 15.22% | District 18 | R |
| District 20 | R | |||||
| District 21 | D | |||||
| District 22 | R | |||||
| Aroostook | Maine | 17.19% | 7.62% | 9.58% | District 1 | D |
| District 2 | D | |||||
| Franklin | Maine | 5.47% | 18.41% | 20.29% | District 17 | R |
| Kennebec | Maine | 3.58% | 13.46% | 14.78% | District 3 | R |
| District 13 | R | |||||
| District 14 | D | |||||
| District 15 | R | |||||
| District 16 | R | |||||
| District 17 | R | |||||
| District 22 | R | |||||
| Oxford | Maine | 12.94% | 14.73% | 16.04% | District 18 | R |
| District 19 | R | |||||
| Penobscot | Maine | 10.91% | 2.93% | 5.12% | District 2 | D |
| District 4 | R | |||||
| District 5 | D | |||||
| District 8 | R | |||||
| District 9 | D | |||||
| District 10 | R | |||||
| Somerset | Maine | 22.67% | 1.68% | 5.70% | District 3 | R |
| District 4 | R | |||||
| District 16 | R | |||||
| Washington | Maine | 18.44% | 1.60% | 1.01% | District 6 | R |
| Bay | Michigan | 12.55% | 5.56% | 15.31% | District 31 | R |
| Calhoun | Michigan | 12.46% | 1.60% | 9.36% | District 19 | R |
| Eaton | Michigan | 4.72% | 3.13% | 8.40% | District 24 | R |
| Gogebic | Michigan | 14.80% | 8.10% | 17.27% | District 38 | R |
| Isabella | Michigan | 3.66% | 9.28% | 19.26% | District 33 | R |
| Lake | Michigan | 22.77% | 5.01% | 12.28% | District 35 | R |
| Macomb | Michigan | 11.53% | 3.99% | 8.62% | District 8 | R |
| District 9 | D | |||||
| District 10 | R | |||||
| District 25 | R | |||||
| Manistee | Michigan | 15.29% | 5.93% | 13.26% | District 35 | R |
| Monroe | Michigan | 21.97% | 0.98% | 4.35% | District 17 | R |
| Saginaw | Michigan | 1.13% | 11.89% | 17.34% | District 32 | R |
| Shiawassee | Michigan | 19.59% | 3.67% | 8.59% | District 24 | R |
| Van Buren | Michigan | 13.92% | 0.45% | 8.78% | District 26 | R |
| Beltrami | Minnesota | 9.72% | 9.89% | 10.15% | District 2 | R |
| District 5 | R | |||||
| Blue Earth | Minnesota | 3.69% | 9.48% | 12.95% | District 19 | D |
| District 23 | R | |||||
| Chippewa | Minnesota | 28.70% | 1.87% | 5.87% | District 16 | R |
| District 17 | R | |||||
| Clay | Minnesota | 1.95% | 7.92% | 16.02% | District 4 | D |
| Fillmore | Minnesota | 21.70% | 7.34% | 8.26% | District 28 | R |
| Freeborn | Minnesota | 17.24% | 14.11% | 17.13% | District 27 | D |
| Houston | Minnesota | 13.87% | 3.16% | 10.69% | District 28 | R |
| Itasca | Minnesota | 16.35% | 9.83% | 12.92% | District 5 | R |
| District 6 | D | |||||
| Kittson | Minnesota | 22.05% | 6.03% | 18.54% | District 1 | R |
| Koochiching | Minnesota | 19.85% | 9.45% | 10.10% | District 3 | D |
| Lac qui Parle | Minnesota | 25.60% | 0.90% | 5.92% | District 16 | R |
| Mahnomen | Minnesota | 2.92% | 18.56% | 25.31% | District 2 | R |
| Mower | Minnesota | 7.82% | 22.61% | 23.61% | District 27 | D |
| Nicollet | Minnesota | 3.04% | 7.83% | 10.52% | District 19 | D |
| Norman | Minnesota | 13.34% | 10.79% | 26.94% | District 4 | D |
| Rice | Minnesota | 3.06% | 8.27% | 11.50% | District 20 | R |
| District 24 | R | |||||
| Swift | Minnesota | 25.57% | 9.83% | 13.79% | District 17 | R |
| Traverse | Minnesota | 23.30% | 4.44% | 5.41% | District 12 | R |
| Winona | Minnesota | 2.90% | 12.85% | 19.09% | District 21 | R |
| District 28 | R | |||||
| Chickasaw | Mississippi | 6.06% | 4.52% | 2.13% | District 8 | D |
| Panola | Mississippi | 0.12% | 8.62% | 6.52% | District 9 | R |
| District 11 | D | |||||
| District 14 | R | |||||
| Blaine | Montana | 2.46% | 15.32% | 19.24% | District 16 | D |
| District 17 | R | |||||
| Hill | Montana | 17.18% | 3.50% | 12.21% | District 14 | R |
| District 16 | D | |||||
| District 17 | R | |||||
| Roosevelt | Montana | 6.49% | 15.58% | 26.27% | District 16 | D |
| District 17 | R | |||||
| Thurston | Nebraska | 5.94% | 13.91% | 6.96% | District 17 | R |
| Coos | New Hampshire | 8.89% | 17.54% | 18.19% | District 1 | D |
| Hillsborough | New Hampshire | 0.20% | 1.12% | 3.73% | District 8 | R |
| District 9 | R | |||||
| District 11 | R | |||||
| District 12 | R | |||||
| District 13 | D | |||||
| District 14 | R | |||||
| District 16 | D | |||||
| District 18 | D | |||||
| District 20 | D | |||||
| District 22 | R | |||||
| Sullivan | New Hampshire | 2.58% | 13.27% | 17.93% | District 5 | D |
| District 8 | R | |||||
| Gloucester | New Jersey | 0.48% | 10.77% | 12.16% | District 3 | D |
| District 4 | D | |||||
| District 5 | D | |||||
| Salem | New Jersey | 15.00% | 1.31% | 3.92% | District 3 | D |
| Colfax | New Mexico | 8.55% | 2.24% | 10.73% | District 8 | D |
| Hidalgo | New Mexico | 6.73% | 4.96% | 2.92% | District 35 | D |
| Valencia | New Mexico | 8.60% | 2.47% | 7.72% | District 29 | R |
| District 30 | D | |||||
| District 39 | D | |||||
| Broome | New York | 2.01% | 5.31% | 8.02% | District 52 | R |
| Cayuga | New York | 11.64% | 11.40% | 8.48% | District 50 | R |
| District 51 | R | |||||
| District 54 | R | |||||
| Cortland | New York | 5.58% | 9.11% | 9.96% | District 51 | R |
| Essex | New York | 1.14% | 18.77% | 13.32% | District 45 | R |
| Franklin | New York | 5.45% | 26.07% | 22.23% | District 45 | R |
| Madison | New York | 14.20% | 0.89% | 0.87% | District 53 | D |
| Niagara | New York | 17.75% | 0.84% | 1.00% | District 62 | R |
| Orange | New York | 5.50% | 5.65% | 4.13% | District 39 | R |
| District 42 | R | |||||
| Oswego | New York | 21.99% | 7.93% | 2.44% | District 48 | R |
| Otsego | New York | 11.13% | 2.72% | 5.91% | District 51 | R |
| Rensselaer | New York | 1.41% | 12.19% | 9.34% | District 43 | R |
| District 44 | D | |||||
| St. Lawrence | New York | 8.82% | 16.71% | 16.33% | District 45 | R |
| District 47 | R | |||||
| District 48 | R | |||||
| Saratoga | New York | 3.21% | 2.44% | 3.40% | District 43 | R |
| District 49 | R | |||||
| Seneca | New York | 11.01% | 9.08% | 2.60% | District 54 | R |
| Suffolk | New York | 6.84% | 3.69% | 5.99% | District 1 | R |
| District 2 | R | |||||
| District 3 | R | |||||
| District 4 | R | |||||
| District 5 | R | |||||
| District 8 | D | |||||
| Sullivan | New York | 11.23% | 9.02% | 9.46% | District 42 | R |
| Warren | New York | 8.47% | 2.32% | 2.64% | District 45 | R |
| Washington | New York | 18.40% | 1.90% | 0.81% | District 43 | R |
| District 45 | R | |||||
| Bladen | North Carolina | 9.39% | 1.97% | 2.07% | District 8 | R |
| Gates | North Carolina | 9.07% | 4.11% | 5.22% | District 1 | R |
| Granville | North Carolina | 2.49% | 4.54% | 6.58% | District 20 | D |
| Martin | North Carolina | 0.43% | 4.65% | 4.64% | District 3 | D |
| Richmond | North Carolina | 9.74% | 2.95% | 1.50% | District 25 | R |
| Robeson | North Carolina | 4.27% | 17.41% | 13.78% | District 13 | R |
| Benson | North Dakota | 4.33% | 17.01% | 33.53% | District 14 | R |
| District 23 | D | |||||
| Ransom | North Dakota | 15.77% | 13.77% | 15.33% | District 24 | D |
| District 26 | D | |||||
| Sargent | North Dakota | 19.73% | 9.77% | 17.49% | District 26 | D |
| Steele | North Dakota | 17.72% | 1.92% | 20.35% | District 23 | D |
| Ashtabula | Ohio | 18.80% | 12.78% | 13.54% | District 32 | D |
| Erie | Ohio | 9.48% | 12.29% | 13.86% | District 2 | R |
| District 13 | R | |||||
| Montgomery | Ohio | 0.73% | 4.62% | 6.22% | District 5 | R |
| District 6 | R | |||||
| Ottawa | Ohio | 19.51% | 4.30% | 6.24% | District 2 | R |
| Portage | Ohio | 9.87% | 5.52% | 8.99% | District 18 | R |
| Sandusky | Ohio | 22.58% | 2.71% | 4.64% | District 26 | R |
| Stark | Ohio | 17.17% | 0.47% | 5.46% | District 2 | R |
| Trumbull | Ohio | 6.22% | 23.00% | 22.43% | District 32 | D |
| Wood | Ohio | 7.99% | 4.84% | 7.13% | District 2 | R |
| Columbia | Oregon | 11.46% | 5.16% | 12.02% | District 16 | D |
| Tillamook | Oregon | 5.58% | 4.86% | 9.89% | District 5 | D |
| District 16 | D | |||||
| Erie | Pennsylvania | 1.56% | 16.03% | 19.88% | District 49 | R |
| District 50 | R | |||||
| Luzerne | Pennsylvania | 19.31% | 4.81% | 8.41% | District 14 | D |
| District 20 | R | |||||
| District 22 | D | |||||
| District 27 | R | |||||
| Northampton | Pennsylvania | 3.78% | 4.71% | 12.30% | District 18 | D |
| District 40 | R | |||||
| Kent | Rhode Island | 0.67% | 17.74% | 17.40% | District 9 | R |
| District 21 | R | |||||
| District 27 | R | |||||
| District 29 | R | |||||
| District 30 | R | |||||
| District 31 | R | |||||
| District 33 | R | |||||
| District 34 | R | |||||
| District 35 | R | |||||
| Barnwell | South Carolina | 5.16% | 5.33% | 1.65% | District 40 | D |
| Calhoun | South Carolina | 2.83% | 4.31% | 3.55% | District 26 | D |
| District 39 | D | |||||
| Chester | South Carolina | 4.83% | 10.58% | 8.30% | District 17 | D |
| Colleton | South Carolina | 8.49% | 0.19% | 0.53% | District 39 | D |
| District 40 | D | |||||
| District 43 | R | |||||
| District 45 | D | |||||
| McCormick | South Carolina | 3.32% | 3.60% | 6.08% | District 10 | D |
| District 25 | R | |||||
| Corson | South Dakota | 4.51% | 11.08% | 21.48% | District 28 | R |
| Day | South Dakota | 23.77% | 6.16% | 12.89% | District 1 | D |
| Marshall | South Dakota | 15.51% | 8.66% | 16.48% | District 1 | D |
| Roberts | South Dakota | 15.53% | 9.84% | 19.64% | District 1 | D |
| Ziebach | South Dakota | 1.96% | 16.43% | 27.16% | District 28 | R |
| Hardeman | Tennessee | 7.92% | 5.91% | 6.18% | District 26 | R |
| Jefferson | Texas | 0.48% | 1.61% | 2.25% | District 4 | R |
| Essex | Vermont | 16.65% | 13.40% | 14.48% | Essex-Orleans | D |
| Buckingham | Virginia | 11.28% | 2.43% | 0.87% | District 22 | R |
| Caroline | Virginia | 5.02% | 8.24% | 11.97% | District 4 | R |
| Essex | Virginia | 2.14% | 7.30% | 10.35% | District 4 | R |
| Nelson | Virginia | 5.59% | 2.72% | 9.15% | District 25 | D |
| Westmoreland | Virginia | 7.14% | 6.95% | 10.24% | District 4 | R |
| District 28 | R | |||||
| Clallam | Washington | 2.76% | 0.38% | 3.30% | District 24 | D |
| Cowlitz | Washington | 13.32% | 4.44% | 11.15% | District 19 | D |
| District 20 | R | |||||
| Grays Harbor | Washington | 6.99% | 14.11% | 14.56% | District 19 | D |
| District 24 | D | |||||
| Mason | Washington | 5.81% | 7.09% | 8.66% | District 35 | D |
| Pacific | Washington | 6.74% | 11.52% | 14.07% | District 19 | D |
| Adams | Wisconsin | 21.92% | 8.73% | 18.35% | District 14 | R |
| District 24 | R | |||||
| Buffalo | Wisconsin | 21.82% | 2.93% | 14.66% | District 31 | D |
| Columbia | Wisconsin | 2.14% | 13.58% | 15.26% | District 13 | R |
| District 14 | R | |||||
| District 27 | D | |||||
| Crawford | Wisconsin | 5.40% | 19.98% | 27.03% | District 32 | D |
| Door | Wisconsin | 3.22% | 6.99% | 17.33% | District 1 | R |
| Dunn | Wisconsin | 11.09% | 4.97% | 14.95% | District 10 | R |
| District 23 | R | |||||
| District 25 | D | |||||
| District 31 | D | |||||
| Forest | Wisconsin | 26.58% | 5.44% | 15.16% | District 12 | R |
| Grant | Wisconsin | 9.43% | 13.77% | 23.88% | District 17 | R |
| Jackson | Wisconsin | 11.74% | 15.01% | 21.84% | District 23 | R |
| District 24 | R | |||||
| District 31 | D | |||||
| Juneau | Wisconsin | 26.05% | 7.03% | 9.00% | District 14 | R |
| District 17 | R | |||||
| Kenosha | Wisconsin | 0.31% | 12.23% | 18.06% | District 11 | R |
| District 21 | R | |||||
| District 22 | D | |||||
| Lafayette | Wisconsin | 8.99% | 15.37% | 22.32% | District 17 | R |
| Lincoln | Wisconsin | 20.60% | 0.71% | 12.48% | District 12 | R |
| Marquette | Wisconsin | 24.09% | 0.27% | 5.28% | District 14 | R |
| Pepin | Wisconsin | 23.08% | 2.22% | 12.89% | District 31 | D |
| Price | Wisconsin | 25.00% | 0.04% | 13.40% | District 25 | D |
| Racine | Wisconsin | 4.28% | 3.54% | 7.41% | District 11 | R |
| District 21 | R | |||||
| District 22 | D | |||||
| District 28 | R | |||||
| Richland | Wisconsin | 5.50% | 16.13% | 20.63% | District 17 | R |
| Sauk | Wisconsin | 0.35% | 18.47% | 23.04% | District 14 | R |
| District 17 | R | |||||
| District 27 | D | |||||
| Sawyer | Wisconsin | 18.41% | 0.49% | 6.23% | District 25 | D |
| District 29 | R | |||||
| Trempealeau | Wisconsin | 12.64% | 14.08% | 26.39% | District 23 | R |
| District 31 | D | |||||
| Vernon | Wisconsin | 4.43% | 14.73% | 22.00% | District 17 | R |
| District 32 | D | |||||
| Winnebago | Wisconsin | 7.34% | 3.73% | 11.66% | District 18 | R |
| District 19 | R | |||||
2018 state legislative elections
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections for 6,073 seats. Of those, 453 state house districts and 138 state senate districts intersected with pivot counties. This includes districts that intersected with only small portions of a county as well as districts that overlapped with multiple counties. These 591 state legislative districts accounted for approximately 10 percent of all state legislative districts up for election in 2018.
What happened in the state legislative districts that overlap with these counties in the 2018 elections?
Republicans lost, on net, 15 districts that intersect pivot counties. Democrats, on net, gained 19 districts.
Compared to all districts, fewer state legislative districts intersecting with pivot counties changed party. Republicans lost control of 3.3 percent of the districts they controlled with pivot counties, while they lost 296 of 4,134 (7.2 percent) of their seats nationally. Democratic gains were similarly tempered, with a 9.7 percent (308 seats of 3,123) gain nationally compared to a 3.2 percent gain within the pivot counties. In 2018, Democrats gained control of six state legislative chambers from Republicans, while losing one chamber (Alaska House) to a power-sharing agreement.
To read our full analysis, click here.
2017 state legislative elections
- See also: State legislative elections, 2017
In 2017, general elections were scheduled to take place in 12 state legislative districts intersecting with Pivot Counties in New Jersey and Virginia. The districts and their corresponding Pivot Counties are shown in the tables below along with the margins of victory (MoV) for Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008. The column on the right shows which party controlled that district as of April 2017.
New Jersey
In New Jersey, all 40 seats in the state Senate and all 80 seats in the state Assembly were up for election in 2017. New Jersey's state senators serve four-year terms, except in the first term of a new decade, which only lasts for two years. State Assembly members are elected to a two-year term. Legislators in New Jersey are not subject to term limits. The general election took place on November 7, 2017. A primary election took place on June 6, 2017. The filing deadline for Democratic and Republican candidates was April 3, 2017. The filing deadline for independent candidates was June 6, 2017.[2]
New Jersey leaned politically to the left in most elections leading up to the November 2017 elections. Democrats took control of both chambers of the state Legislature in 2001 and held on to them in every election between then and 2015, the last time one of the chambers was up for election prior to 2017. In 2015, Democrats picked up four seats in the Assembly, giving them a 52-28 majority. In 2013, Democrats maintained their 24-16 majority in the state Senate. The governor’s mansion followed slightly different trends in elections between 2001 and 2017. Republicans controlled the governor’s mansion from 1994 to 2001. Democrats controlled it from 2002 until 2009 when Republican Chris Christie defeated Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine 48.5 to 44.9 percent. Prior to Christie’s win in 2009, Republicans had not won a statewide election in New Jersey since 1997.[3] Christie was re-elected in 2013 with 60 percent of the vote. At the beginning of 2017, New Jersey was one of 19 states under divided government. At the federal level, New Jersey backed Democratic presidential candidates in every election between 1992 and 2016. Democrat Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016 with 55.5 percent of the vote.
Two counties in New Jersey—Gloucester and Salem—are Pivot Counties. As of April 2017, three house districts and three senate districts intersected with these counties. Democrats controlled all six of them.
| State senate districts intersecting with New Jersey Pivot Counties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump MoV 2016 | Obama MoV 2012 | Obama MoV 2008 | District | Party |
| Gloucester | 0.48% | 10.77% | 12.16% | District 3 | D |
| District 4 | D | ||||
| District 5 | D | ||||
| Salem | 15.00% | 1.31% | 3.92% | District 3 | D |
| State assembly districts intersecting with New Jersey Pivot Counties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump MoV 2016 | Obama MoV 2012 | Obama MoV 2008 | District | Party |
| Gloucester | 0.48% | 10.77% | 12.16% | District 3 | D |
| District 4 | D | ||||
| District 5 | D | ||||
| Salem | 15.00% | 1.31% | 3.92% | District 3 | D |
Virginia House of Delegates
Elections for the Virginia House of Delegates took place in 2017. All 100 house seats were up for election. The general election took place on November 7, 2017. A primary election took place on June 13, 2017. The filing deadline for primary election candidates was March 30, 2017. The filing deadline for non-party candidates and candidates nominated by methods other than a primary was June 13, 2017.[4]
Virginia developed a reputation as a political battleground state in elections leading up to the November 2017 elections, meaning electoral competition between Democrats and Republicans was more intense than in other states, and the outcomes of elections were often difficult to predict. For example, in gubernatorial elections between 1993 and 2013, Democrats and Republicans won three races each. Similarly, in presidential elections between 1992 and 2016, Republican candidates won four times, while Democratic candidates won three times. In 2016, Virginia was a closely watched battleground state in the presidential election. Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump 49.7 to 44.4 percent. When those same results are broken down by state legislative House districts, Clinton defeated Trump in 51 out of 100 districts, based on data compiled by Daily Kos. When the presidential results are broken down by congressional districts, Trump won six districts, while Clinton won five.
Five counties in Virginia—Buckingham, Caroline, Essex, Nelson, and Westmoreland—are Pivot Counties. As of April 2017, six house districts intersected with these counties. Republicans controlled all of them.
| State house districts intersecting with Virginia Pivot Counties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump MoV 2016 | Obama MoV 2012 | Obama MoV 2008 | District | Party |
| Buckingham | 11.28% | 2.43% | 0.87% | District 59 | R |
| Caroline | 5.02% | 8.24% | 11.97% | District 54 | R |
| District 55 | R | ||||
| District 99 | R | ||||
| Essex | 2.14% | 7.30% | 10.35% | District 98 | R |
| Nelson | 5.59% | 2.72% | 9.15% | District 20 | R |
| District 59 | R | ||||
| Westmoreland | 7.14% | 6.95% | 10.24% | District 99 | R |
Pivot Counties map
See also
- Pivot counties: How Obama-Obama-Trump counties voted in the 2018 state legislative elections
- Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties: How the 206 Obama-Obama-Trump counties intersect with Congressional districts
- Presidential election, 2016
- Partisan composition of state legislatures
- State legislative elections, 2017
- State legislative elections, 2016
- Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties by state legislative district
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 United States Census Bureau, "State Legislative Districts Relationship Files," accessed April 25, 2017
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2017 Primary Election Timeline," accessed March 21, 2017
- ↑ Cohen, R. et al. (2015), The Almanac of American Politics. Bethesda, MD:Columbia Books Inc. (page 1163)
- ↑ Virginia Department of Elections, "Candidacy Requirements for the November 7, 2017 General Election," accessed March 21, 2017
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