Pivot Counties: How the Obama-Obama-Trump counties vote on statewide ballot measures

2016 Pivot Counties

Analysis Pivot counties overview List of counties Historical voting patterns Historical voting analysis, 1992-2004 Demographics Reverse-Pivot Counties Voter turnout Pivot Counties by state Pivot Counties in congressional districts Pivot Counties in state legislative districts Pivot Counties and ballot measures

2018 elections analysis Pivot counties in U.S. House elections Pivot counties in state legislative elections Reverse pivot counties in U.S. House elections

Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election

Pivot Counties in the 2022 midterm elections

Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Most of these Pivot Counties were located in the American Midwest and Northeast. This article details how Pivot Counties in a selection of states voted on ballot measures compared to other counties in 2016. This article will also detail how voters in Pivot Counties voted on ballot measures in 2017.

By illustrating how Pivot Counties voted on ballot measures, we can compare how Pivot Counties voted on proposed legislation relative to counties that voted for either the Democratic or Republican candidate in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections.

HIGHLIGHTS

In 2016, the average countywide vote in Maine's Pivot Counties on an initiative to require background checks before gun transfers between people other than firearms dealers was 35.7 percent, 14.9 percentage points lower than the average in counties that voted Democratic and 8.9 percentage points higher than in the county that voted Republican. The average vote was 6 percentage points closer to the county that voted Republican than the counties that voted Democratic.

The average countywide vote in Maine's Pivot Counties on each 2016 ballot measure was between the average countywide vote in Democratic and Republican counties.

In 2017, Ballotpedia analyzed results in Pivot Counties for the Maine Medicaid Expansion Initiative and found that voters in Pivot Counties favored the initiative 51 percent to 49 percent, which was lower than the statewide approval of 59 percent.

2016 ballot measures

Maine

See also: Maine 2016 ballot measures and Pivot Counties in Maine

Voters in Maine considered six ballot measures—five initiatives and one bond issue—on November 8, 2016.

• Question 1 legalized recreational marijuana for adults over the age of 21. Voters approved the initiative 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent.
• Question 2 enacted a 3 percent surcharge on household income exceeding $200,000 per year and dedicated revenue to public education. The vote was 50.6 to 49.4 percent.
• Question 3 was defeated 51.8 percent to 48.2 percent. The initiative would have required background checks before a gun sale or transfer between people who are not licensed firearm dealers.
• Question 4 was designed to increase the minimum wage to $9 in 2017; $10 in 2018; $11 in 2019; and $12 in 2020. Voters approved the measure 55.5 percent to 45.5 percent.
• Question 5 made Maine the first state to enact ranked-choice voting. The vote was 52.1 percent to 47.9 percent.
• Question 6 authorized the state to issue $100 million in bonds for transportation projects. Voters approved the measure 61.2 percent to 38.8 percent.

The dot plot below illustrates how Pivot (orange), Democratic (blue), and Republican (red) counties voted on Maine ballot measures in 2016.

Votes on measures

The information below compares the average vote outcomes across Pivot Counties to average vote outcomes across Democratic and Republican counties. The following percents are averages across the types of counties (Pivot, Democratic, and Republican). Calculating averages across counties gives each county equal weight and provides information on how the average Pivot county in Maine voted.

How did the average Pivot County vote?
Ballot Question	Topic	Pivot Counties	Democratic Counties	Republican County	Distance Between Democratic and Pivot Counties	Distance Between Republican and Pivot Counties
Question 1	Marijuana	46.43%	51.80%	44.26%	5.37 percentage points above	2.17 percentage points below
Question 2	Tax increase	48.72%	51.42%	42.23%	2.70 percentage points above	6.49 percentage points below
Question 3	Firearms	35.69%	50.57%	26.78%	14.88 percentage points above	8.91 percentage points below
Question 4	Minimum wage	51.14%	57.78%	45.00%	6.64 percentage points above	6.14 percentage points below
Question 5	Ranked-choice voting	47.04%	53.60%	41.61%	6.56 percentage points above	5.43 percentage points below
Question 6	Bonds	55.51%	63.94%	51.06%	8.43 percentage points above	4.45 percentage points below

The information below compares the aggregate vote outcome in Pivot Counties to aggregate vote outcomes in Democratic and Republican counties. The following percents are the aggregate vote outcome in each type of county (Pivot, Democratic, and Republican). Calculating aggregate vote outcomes for each type of county treats the three types as different regions, gives more weight to counties with higher populations and higher voter turnout, and provides information on how the total Pivot Counties voted as a region.

How did Pivot Counties as an aggregate region vote?
Ballot Question	Topic	Pivot Counties	Democratic Counties	Republican County	Distance Between Democratic and Pivot Counties	Distance Between Republican and Pivot Counties
Question 1	Marijuana	46.12%	53.52%	44.26%	7.40 percentage points above	1.86 percentage points below
Question 2	Tax increase	48.82%	52.05%	42.23%	3.23 percentage points above	6.59 percentage points below
Question 3	Firearms	37.67%	56.84%	26.78%	19.17 percentage points above	10.89 percentage points below
Question 4	Minimum wage	50.44%	59.60%	45.00%	9.16 percentage points above	5.44 percentage points below
Question 5	Ranked-choice voting	47.45%	55.99%	41.61%	8.54 percentage points above	5.84 percentage points below
Question 6	Bonds	55.82%	65.63%	51.06%	9.81 percentage points above	4.76 percentage points below

2017 ballot measures

Maine

Maine Question 2: Medicaid Expansion Initiative

See also: Maine 2017 ballot measures and Pivot Counties in Maine

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump said he supported repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare. In March 2017, President Trump expressed his full support for the American Health Care Act (AHCA), saying, "I want everyone to know, I’m 100 percent behind this. ... This is a great plan. This is going to be fantastic.” The ACA, due in part to NFIB v. Sebelius (2012), gave states the option to expand Medicaid to cover individuals earning incomes up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level. Under the AHCA, no new states would be allowed to expand their Medicaid programs beginning in 2020. The AHCA would make other changes to Medicaid, including converting Medicaid financing from an open-ended entitlement to a per-member amount. As of August 2017, 19 states, including Maine, had chosen not to expand Medicaid. Governor Paul LePage (R) vetoed legislation to expand Medicaid under the ACA five times.

There were eight counties in Maine that voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. These Pivot Counties made up 50 percent of the state's total counties.

On November 7, 2017, voters in Maine passed Question 2, with 58.95 percent voting to enact the initiative. Voters in Maine’s eight Pivot Counties were divided on Question 2. The total combined “yes” vote of electors in Maine’s eight Pivot Counties on Question 2 was 51.43 percent, 6.37 percentage points more than in Maine’s one Republican county and 13.24 percentage points less than in Maine’s seven Democratic counties. The following scatterplot illustrates how the state's 16 counties voted on Question 2 relative to how the counties voted in the 2016 presidential election.

Somerset and Aroostook counties, located along the state’s northern border with Canada, voted within a percentage point of Piscataquis County, and they were the only counties where a majority of electors voted against question 2. In 2016, Trump relied on the state’s northern counties to win the 2nd Congressional District and split the state’s electoral votes with Hillary Clinton.

The remaining six Pivot Counties voted to pass Question 2, with “yes” vote totals falling between 50.89 percent in Washington County and 56.00 percent in Kennebec County. The average countywide vote to approve the initiative in the Pivot Counties was 50.63 percent.

The following scatterplot illustrates how the state's 16 counties voted on Question 2 relative to how the counties voted in the 2016 presidential election.

2018 ballot measures

Oregon

Oregon Measure 101: Healthcare Insurance Premiums Tax for Medicaid Referendum

See also: Oregon 2018 ballot measures and Pivot Counties in Oregon

Measure 101 addressed taxes with revenue set to fund Medicaid expansion. The state government of Oregon expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act—also known as Obamacare—in 2014. The expansion was fully funded by the federal government from 2014 through 2016. In 2017, the federal government provided 95 percent of funding for Medicaid expansion, and the remainder was the responsibility of the state government. Federal funding for Medicaid expansion was scheduled to decrease to 94 percent in 2018, 93 percent in 2019, and 90 percent in 2020 and after. The Oregon State Legislature approved House Bill 2391 (HB 2391), and Gov. Kate Brown (D) signed it into law on July 3, 2017. HB 2391 was designed to use revenue from new assessments and taxes to cover the state's share of the costs of Medicaid expansion. The state legislature passed HB 2391 largely along partisan lines, with all Democrats in both chambers approving it and 33 out of 39 Republicans voting against it. The veto referendum petition drive that resulted in Measure 101 being on the ballot was launched by three Republican state legislators, state Representatives Julie Parrish (R-37), Sal Esquivel (R-6), and Cedric Hayden (R-7).

A majority of voters in Oregon’s two Pivot Counties voted “Yes” on Oregon Measure 101. Oregon's two Pivot Counties are Columbia and Tillamook counties. The total combined “yes” vote of electors in Oregon’s two Pivot Counties on Measure 101 was 55.63 percent, 7.50 percentage points more than in Oregon’s 23 Republican counties and 13.80 percentage points less than in Oregon’s Democratic eight counties.

See also

• List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
• Pivot Counties by state
• 2016 ballot measures
• 2017 ballot measures
• Presidential election, 2016