Everything you need to know about ranked-choice voting in one spot. Click to learn more!

Pivot counties: How Obama-Obama-Trump counties voted in the 2018 state legislative elections

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search

206 Pivot Counties Banner.png

206 Pivot Counties Logo.png
2016 Pivot Counties
Analysis
Pivot counties overview
List of counties
Historical voting patterns
Historical voting analysis, 1992-2004
Demographics
Reverse-Pivot Counties
Voter turnout
Pivot Counties by state
Pivot Counties in congressional districts
Pivot Counties in state legislative districts
Pivot Counties and ballot measures
2018 elections analysis
Pivot counties in U.S. House elections
Pivot counties in state legislative elections
Reverse pivot counties in U.S. House elections

Last updated: February 18, 2019
There are 206 pivot counties in the country: those that voted for Barack Obama (D) in both 2008 and 2012 and Trump (R) in 2016. Thus, they voted Republican in 2016 after voting Democrat in 2008 and 2012. A small number of these counties could be considered bellwethers in modern elections. These counties are sometimes referred to as swing counties by media and political observers.

On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections for 6,073 seats. Of those, 453 state house districts and 138 state senate districts intersected with pivot counties. This includes districts that intersected with only small portions of a county as well as districts that overlapped with multiple counties. These 591 state legislative districts accounted for approximately 10 percent of all state legislative districts up for election in 2018.

What happened in the state legislative districts that overlap with these counties in the 2018 elections?

Republicans lost, on net, 15 districts that intersect pivot counties. Democrats, on net, gained 19 districts.

Compared to all districts, fewer state legislative districts intersecting with pivot counties changed party. Republicans lost control of 3.3 percent of the districts they controlled with pivot counties, while they lost 296 of 4,134 (7.2 percent) of their seats nationally. Democrats gained 9.7 percent (308 seats of 3,123) nationally compared to a 3.2 percent gain within the pivot counties. In 2018, Democrats gained control of six state legislative chambers from Republicans, while losing one chamber (Alaska House) to a power-sharing agreement.

Beyond the Headlines - Title Banner.png
How did pivot counties vote in the 2018 elections? Click to watch
View other episodes here.
Districts that changed partisan hands by state
State Number of districts
Arkansas 1
Colorado 1
Connecticut 2
Florida 1
Illinois 2
Indiana 1
Iowa 7
Maine 8
Michigan 3
Minnesota 2
New Hampshire 28
New Mexico 1
New York 5
North Carolina 1
Rhode Island 3
South Carolina 1
South Dakota 3
Wisconsin 1

For further analysis of pivot counties in the 2018 elections, see:

Pivot counties by state house district

In 2018, there were 5,004 state house districts up for election across 45 chambers. Of those, 453 (9.1 percent) intersected with a pivot county. Heading into the election, Republicans controlled 251 districts (55.4 percent) to Democrats' 183 (40.4 percent), while 18 were split between the parties and one was held by an independent.

Fifty-seven state house districts switched partisan control in the 2018 elections. The elections resulted in a net change of 13 seats (2.8 percent) in favor of Democrats. The most common changes were:

  • Republican to Democrat: 21 districts
  • Democrat to Republican: 16 districts
  • Split districts to all-Democrats: 10 districts

Following the elections, Republicans controlled 242 districts (53.4 percent) and Democrats 196 (43.3 percent), while 12 were split between parties and three were held by an independent.

Nationally, Republicans controlled 2,812 (56.2 percent) of the seats up for election in November 2018, while Democrats held 2,160 (43.2 percent) seats, and the rest were held by third parties or were vacant. The election resulted in a net change of 245 seats (4.9 percent) for the Democrats, with the final result being 2,577 (51.5 percent) Republican-held seats, 2,405 (48.1 percent) Democratic ones, and the rest held by third parties.

Comparison to national results

  • Democrats gained state house seats in pivot county districts at a rate lower than the national level, 2.8 percent to 4.9 percent.
  • Republicans held a similar but slightly higher percentage of state house seats intersecting with pivot counties than the party held nationally, 53.4 percent to 51.5 percent.
  • In 2016, there were 18 multi-member districts that had at least one member from both the Republican and Democratic Parties. In 2018, there were 12 of these districts. Republicans took full control of two of these districts, while Democrats took full control of 10 of them. Five multi-member districts that were fully controlled by Republicans became split between the two parties, while one of these districts fully controlled by Democrats did the same.

    • Click [show] below to view results in all pivot counties that intersect with state house districts and held elections in 2018. The middle column shows which party controlled the seat after the 2016 election. The third column from the right shows which party controlled the seat after the 2018 election. The second column from the right indicates whether that seat switched in control. To see a full list of the seats that changed partisan hands in 2018, sort by the second column from the right. The column furthest to the right shows the margin of victory for the winning party in the 2018 election for that state house district.

    Note: For multi-member districts, “MM” means that it was split between Republicans and Democrats. For multi-member districts completely controlled by Republicans or Democrats, it is denoted by “R” or “D” instead. Since these districts have multiple representatives, a margin of victory could not be calculated for them. Some races had only one candidate run in a race. States have different methods for handling these elections. Some states will still have these candidates on the ballot, in which case their margin of victory is 100.00% in the right-most column. Other states will cancel the election or list them as the automatic winner. For these races, the right-most column will state “Canceled” or “Auto-win.”

    Pivot counties by state senate district

    In 2018, there were 1,557 state senate districts up for election across 42 chambers nationally. Of those, 138 (14.8 percent) intersected with a pivot county. Heading into the election, Republicans controlled 89 districts (64.5 percent) to Democrats' 49 (35.5 percent).

    Fourteen state senate districts switched partisan control in the 2018 elections. The elections resulted in a net change of six seats (4.3 percent) in favor of Democrats. The total changes were:

    • Republican to Democrat: 10 districts
    • Democrat to Republican: four districts

    Following the elections, Republicans controlled 83 districts (60.1 percent) and Democrats 55 (39.9 percent).

    Nationally, Republicans controlled 916 (58.8 percent) of the seats up for election in November 2018, while Democrats held 635 (40.8 percent) seats, and the rest were held by third parties or were vacant. The election resulted in a net change of 63 seats (4.0 percent) for the Democrats, with the final result being 856 (55.0 percent) Republican-held seats, 698 (44.8 percent) Democratic ones, and the rest held by third parties.

    Comparison to national results

  • Democrats gained state senate seats in pivot counties at a rate similar to the national level, 4.3 percent to 4.0 percent.
  • Republicans held a higher percentage of state senate seats intersecting with pivot counties than the party held nationally, 60.1 percent to 55.0 percent.
  • No independents or third-party incumbents held a state senate seat intersecting with a pivot county before or after the 2018 election.

    • Click [show] below to view results in all pivot counties that intersect with state senate districts and held elections in 2018. The middle column shows which party controlled the seat after the 2016 election. The third column from the right shows which party controlled the seat after the 2018 election. The second column from the right indicates whether that seat switched in control. To see a full list of the seats that changed partisan hands in 2018, sort by the second column from the right. The column furthest to the right shows the margin of victory for the winning party in the 2018 election for that state senate district.

    Note: Some races had only one candidate run in a race. States have different methods for handling these elections. Some states will still have these candidates on the ballot, in which case their margin of victory is 100.00% in the right-most column. Other states will cancel the election or list them as the automatic winner. One state senate seat, Florida SD 32, canceled its election.

    Location of pivot counties

    The following map displays the Pivot Counties that voted for Obama, Obama, and Trump:

    About the data

    The election results data by county for this study were provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.

    For multi-member districts, a margin of victory could not be calculated since these districts have multiple representatives.

    Some races had only one candidate run in a race. States have different methods for handling these elections. Some states will still have these candidates on the ballot, in which case their margin of victory is 100.00% in the right-most column. Other states will cancel the election or list them as the automatic winner.

    Some races may have only had a candidate from one of the two major parties. They may have included an independent or third-party candidate instead. There may be some cases where only one candidate ran at all.

    See also

    Footnotes

    v • e
    2016 Pivot Counties
    Analysis206 Pivot Counties Logo.png
    By state
    2016 elections
    2018 elections analysis
    2020 elections
    Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Pivot_counties:_How_Obama-Obama-Trump_counties_voted_in_the_2018_state_legislative_elections&oldid=8160181"