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Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 15, 2025

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Last updated on September 11, 2025
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Ballotpedia's 15th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzes all 180 state legislative seats that are up for election on Nov. 4, 2025, in two states.

Competitiveness in 2025 was down from the record high in 2021, but still the second-highest since 2011.

In 2025, the nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index is 38.1, down from 40.0 in 2021 but above the average of 31.6 since 2011.

While the percentage of open seats was lower than in any odd year since 2011 (4.4%), the share of incumbents in contested primaries was above the average of 21.0% (22.1%), and the percentage of seats contested by both major parties was the second-highest since 2011 (87.8%).

Key findings of this report include:

  • Eight seats were open (4.4%), the smallest percentage since 2011.
  • 38 incumbents faced contested primaries (22.1%), above the average of 21.0% since 2011.
  • 158 seats are contested by both major parties (87.8%), the second-highest percentage after 92.7% in 2021.


    • Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2025
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 4.4% 22.1% 87.8% 38.1
    Senate - - - 0.0
    Total 4.4% 22.1% 87.8% 38.1


    This report is organized into five sections. They are:

    Competitiveness overview

    Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

    Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

    These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

    The graphic below combines these figures for every election cycle from 2011 to 2025, showing the change in competitiveness, and how each criterion affects the overall competitiveness indices, over time.

    State overviews

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2025, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.

    Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index from 2011 to 2025.

    Competitiveness by state

    Overview

    New Jersey

    New Jersey had a Competitiveness Index of 48.3, ranking it first of the two states that held elections.

    • Four of the 80 seats up for election were open (5%).
    • 35 of the 76 incumbents who ran for re-election faced contested primaries (46%).
    • 75 of the 80 seats up for election were contested by both major parties (94%).

    In 2025

    Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents. Click on headings for more state-specific information.

    State Legislative Competitiveness Index in New Jersey, 2025
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 5.0% 46.1% 93.8% 48.3
    Senate Did not hold elections
    Total 5.0% 46.1% 93.8% 48.3

    2011-2025

    Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

    State Legislative Competitiveness Index in New Jersey, 2011-2025
    Year Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index Rank
    2011 12.5% 17.0% 97.5% 42.3 1 / 4
    2013 5.0% 14.9% 96.7% 38.9 1 / 2
    2015 8.8% 9.6% 96.3% 38.2 1 / 4
    2017 10.8% 24.3% 95.8% 43.6 1 / 2
    2019 5.0% 32.9% 95.0% 44.3 1 / 4
    2021 10.0% 21.3% 94.2% 41.8 1 / 2
    2023 23.3% 18.3% 91.7% 44.4 1 / 4
    2025 5.0% 46.1% 93.8% 48.3 1 / 2


    See also:

    Virginia

    Virginia had a Competitiveness Index of 30.0, ranking it second of the two states that held elections.

    • Four of the 100 seats up for election were open (4%).
    • Three of the 96 incumbents who ran for re-election faced contested primaries (3%).
    • 83 of the 100 seats up for election were contested by both major parties (83%).

    In 2025

    Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents. Click on headings for more state-specific information.

    State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Virginia, 2025
    Chamber Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index
    House 4.0% 3.1% 83.0% 30.0
    Senate Did not hold elections
    Total 4.0% 3.1% 83.0% 30.0

    2011-2025

    Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

    State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Virginia, 2011-2025
    Year Open seats Incs. in contested primaries Major party competition Competitiveness Index Rank
    2011 14.3% 1.6% 37.1% 17.7 4 / 4
    2013 9.0% 7.7% 43.0% 19.9 2 / 2
    2015 10.7% 8.0% 35.0% 17.9 4 / 4
    2017 7.0% 6.5% 60.0% 24.5 2 / 2
    2019 11.4% 11.3% 60.7% 27.8 3 / 4
    2021 5.0% 17.9% 91.0% 38.0 2 / 2
    2023 31.4% 17.3% 70.7% 39.8 2 / 4
    2025 4.0% 3.1% 83.0% 30.0 2 / 2


    See also:

    Open seats

    See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2025

    There are 180 state legislative seats up for election on November 4, 2025, in two states. Of that total, there are eight open seats, guaranteeing at least 4% of all seats will be won by newcomers. That was the lowest by percentage of any odd-year cycle since 2011.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

    In 2025:

  • There were four open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were four open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • The total number of open seats—eight—was nine fewer and a 53% decrease from 2021.



    • Open state legislative seats, 2025
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Other Total
    # %
    House 180 4 4 0 8 4.4%
    Senate 0 0 0 0 0 -
    Total 180 4 4 0 8 4.4%

    Historical comparison

    Factors like the number of chambers holding elections, number of seats up for election, term limits, and redistricting can effect the number of open state legislative seats in a given year. In 2025, for example, there were two chambers holding elections for 180 total seats. In 2023, eight chambers held elections for 578 total seats, meaning greater potential for end-of-term retirements and incumbent ineligibility due to term limits. Elections following redistricting may also feature more open seats if incumbents are drawn into each other's districts. Incumbents may retire or challenge the other incumbent(s) for the overlapping district, leaving other districts open.

    The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2025. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.

    Incumbents in contested primaries

    See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2025

    There are 180 state legislative seats up for election on November 4, 2025, in two states. Overall, 172 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 38 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 22% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. That was lower than the average of 78 between 2011 and 2023.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

    In 2025:

  • There were 33 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 33% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 43% increase from 2021.
  • There were five Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 7% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 71% decrease from 2021.
  • The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—38—was two fewer and a 5% decrease from 2021.



    • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2025
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[1]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    House 180 99 33 33.3% 73 5 6.8% 172 38 22.1%
    Senate 0 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 -
    Total 180 99 33 33.3% 73 5 6.8% 172 38 22.1%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2011 to 2025.

    All contested primaries

    See also: Contested state legislative primaries, 2025

    This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 140 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 280 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 46 contested primaries, meaning 16.4% of all primaries were contested. That was below the average of 18% between 2011 and 2023.

    In 2025:

  • There were 32 contested Democratic primaries, representing 23% of all possible Democratic primaries and a 19% increase from 2021.
  • There were 14 contested Republican primaries, representing 10% of all possible Republican primaries and an 18% decrease from 2021.
  • The total number of contested primaries—46—was two more and a 5% increase from 2021.



    • Contested state legislative primaries, 2025
    Chamber Districts
    Democratic Republican Top-two/four Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 140 32 22.9% 14 10.0% 0 - 46 16.4%
    Senate 0 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 -
    Total 140 32 22.9% 14 10.0% 0 N/A 46 16.4%

    The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2011 to 2025.

    Major party competition

    See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2025

    There are 180 state legislative seats up for election on Nov. 4, 2025, in two states. Of that total, 22 (12%) are uncontested and have no major party competition. The remaining 158 (88%) are contested by both major parties. That is down from 93% of seats being contested by both major parties in 2021.

    Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

    In 2025:

  • Democrats are guaranteed to win 22 seats (12%) that lack Republican competition, a 144% increase from 2021.
  • Republicans are not guaranteed any seats, as no seats lack Democratic competition.
  • Overall, Democrats are running for 180 seats (100%) and Republicans are running for 158 (88%).
  • The total number of seats without major party competition—22—is six more and a 38% increase from 2021.
  • Neither major party has guaranteed simple majorities in any state legislative chambers.


    • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2025
    Chamber Seats
    Uncontested Contested
    Only Democrats Only Republicans Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 180 22 12.2% 00 0.0% 22 12.2% 158 87.8%
    Senate 0 00 - 00 - 00 - 0 -
    Total 180 22 12.2% 00 0.0% 22 12.2% 158 87.8%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2011 to 2025.

    Terms and definitions

    Use the links below to view terms, definitions, and methodologies specific to the three competitiveness criteria:

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
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