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Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2020
| 2020 State Legislative Competitiveness | |
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Of the 86 state legislative chambers that held elections in 2020, 23 of them—12 senate chambers and 11 house chambers—included incumbents who were unable to run for re-election due to term limits.[2] In those 23 chambers, term limits affected 1,356 seats up for election.[2] There are 99 chambers nationwide.
Term limits affect the members of 29 legislative chambers in 15 states. There are 1,972 state senate seats and 5,411 state house seats in the U.S. Of the 1,972 senate seats, 562 seats (29%) are subject to term limits. Of the 5,411 house seats, 1,368 seats (25%) are subject to term limits.
- See also: State legislative elections, 2020
Term-limited legislators by state
The map below shows the 15 states that use term limits for state legislators. All 15 states held elections in 2020 except Louisiana.[4] Click on a state below to see the total number of term-limited state legislators in 2020 as well as a breakdown of the totals for each legislative chamber.
States where term limits had the greatest impact
- Missouri's Senate had the highest percentage of term-limited state senators in 2020. Eight of the 17 seats up for election in 2020 (47%) had term-limited incumbents.
- Missouri's House had the highest percentage term-limited state representatives in 2020. 34 of the 163 seats up for election in 2020 (21%) had term-limited incumbents.
States where term limits had the least impact
- No incumbents in the Arkansas Senate were affected by term limits in 2020. In Oklahoma, one out of the 24 senate seats up for election in 2020 (4%) had a term-limited incumbent.
- No incumbents were affected by term limits in both the Arkansas House and California Assembly in 2020. In Nevada, one out of the 42 assembly seats up for election in 2020 (2%) had a term-limited incumbent.
Democratic and Republican term-limited incumbents
Term limits can often affect the competitiveness of a state legislative election because term limits create open seats. Open seats are believed to be more electorally competitive than seats in which an incumbent is running for re-election because incumbents tend to win re-election. A 2015 study by Ballotpedia found that in state legislative elections between 1972 and 2014, the incumbency win rate never fell below 90 percent, with the exception of 1974 when 88 percent of incumbents won re-election.
204 state legislators associated with either the Democratic or Republican parties—82 Democratic and 122 Republican—were term-limited in 2020. Seven minor-party or independent incumbents were also term-limited.
Senate
60 state senators—21 Democrats, 33 Republican, and six nonpartisan—were term-limited in 2020. Going into the November elections, Democrats had majorities in four of the 12 term-limited state senates. Republicans had majorities in seven of the 12 state senates.[5] Nebraska's state Senate is term-limited and officially nonpartisan.
Three state senates—California, Maine, and Nevada—had more term-limited Democrats than Republicans. Six state senates—Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma,and South Dakota—had more term-limited Republicans than Democrats. Two states—Arizona and Montana—had an equal number of term-limited Democrats and Republicans.
| 2020 term-limited state senate elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Majority party |  Democraticterm-limited |
 Republicanterm-limited |
 Nonpartisanterm-limited |
Seats up in 2020 | % of seats |
| Arizona | Republican | 1 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 6.7% |
| Arkansas | Republican | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.0% |
| California | Democratic | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 30.0% |
| Colorado | Democratic | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 22.2% |
| Florida | Republican | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 35.0% |
| Maine | Democratic | 2 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 8.6% |
| Missouri | Republican | 3 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 47.1% |
| Montana | Republican | 5 | 5 | 0 | 25 | 40.0% |
| Nebraska | Nonpartisan[6] | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 24.0% |
| Nevada | Democratic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 20.0% |
| Ohio | Republican | 0 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 31.3% |
| Oklahoma | Republican | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 4.2% |
| South Dakota | Republican | 0 | 6 | 0 | 35 | 17.1% |
| Total | --- | 21 | 33 | 6 | 292 | 20.5% |
House
151 state representatives—61 Democratic, 89 Republican, and one independent—were term-limited in 2020. Going into the November elections, Democrats had majorities in three of the 11 term-limited state houses. Republicans had majorities in eight of the 11 state house of representatives.[7]
Two state houses—Maine and Michigan—had more term-limited Democrats than Republicans. Nine state houses—Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, and South Dakota—had more term-limited Republicans than Democrats.
| 2020 term-limited state house elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Majority party | Democratic term-limited |
Republican term-limited |
Nonpartisan term-limited |
Seats up in 2020 | % of seats |
| Arizona | Republican | 1 | 4 | 0 | 60 | 8.3% |
| Arkansas | Republican | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0.0% |
| California | Democratic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 0.0% |
| Colorado | Democratic | 4 | 5 | 0 | 65 | 13.8% |
| Florida | Republican | 7 | 11 | 0 | 120 | 15.0% |
| Maine | Democratic | 18 | 3 | 1 | 151 | 14.6% |
| Michigan | Republican | 12 | 10 | 0 | 110 | 20.0% |
| Missouri | Republican | 6 | 28 | 0 | 163 | 20.9% |
| Montana | Republican | 7 | 9 | 0 | 100 | 16.0% |
| Nevada | Democratic | 0 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 2.4% |
| Ohio | Republican | 4 | 8 | 0 | 99 | 12.1% |
| Oklahoma | Republican | 0 | 4 | 0 | 101 | 4.0% |
| South Dakota | Republican | 2 | 6 | 0 | 70 | 11.4% |
| Total | --- | 61 | 89 | 1 | 1261 | 12.0% |
State senators
There were 43 state senates that held general elections in 2020. In 13 of these states, state senators were term-limited. Louisiana and Michigan were the only states with state senate term limits that did not have a general election in 2020.
60 state senators were term-limited. This represented 22% of the 275 seats up for election in the 12 term-limited state senates with elections on Nov. 3.[5] This included:
- 21 incumbent Democratic state senators
- 33 incumbent Republican state senators
- 6 nonpartisan state senators[8]
Some of the 60 state senators listed below may have resigned before their term ended. These officials were still counted in the total number of term-limited state senators in 2020.
1. Anitere Flores (R), Florida State Senate, District 39. |
State representatives
There were 43 state houses that held general elections in 2020. In 13 of these states, state representatives were term-limited. Louisiana did not hold state house elections in 2020 and Nebraska does not have a state house.
151 state representatives were term-limited in 2020. This represented 14% of the 1,081 seats up for election in the 11 term-limited state houses with elections on Nov. 3.[7] This included:
- 61 incumbent Democratic state representatives
- 89 incumbent Republican state representatives
- 1 incumbent independent state representative
Some of the 151 state representatives listed below may have resigned before their term ended. These officials were still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2020.
1. Aaron Miller (R), Michigan House of Representatives, District 59. |
Year-to-year comparisons
Overview
The table below shows term-limited state legislators by year from 2010 to 2020. Between those years, 1,672 state legislators were term-limited. Republicans had 181 more term-limited legislators than Democrats.
- Democratic legislators term-limited: 717
- Republican legislators term-limited: 898
- Nonpartisan legislators term-limited: 57
| Term-limited state legislators by year | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Dem. senators
|
Rep. senators
|
Nonpartisan sentators
|
Dem. representatives
|
Rep. representatives
|
Nonpartisan representatives
|
Total term-limited |
| 2020 | 21 | 33 | 6 | 61 | 89 | 1 | 211 |
| 2019 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 17 | 1 | 47 |
| 2018 | 28 | 62 | 6 | 58 | 115 | 2 | 271 |
| 2017 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2016 | 29 | 26 | 12 | 84 | 102 | 0 | 253 |
| 2015 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 2014 | 22 | 24 | 17 | 73 | 87 | 0 | 223 |
| 2013 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2012 | 35 | 40 | 8 | 87 | 85 | 0 | 255 |
| 2011 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 2010 | 54 | 66 | 1 | 128 | 124 | 2 | 375 |
| Total | 201 | 268 | 50 | 516 | 630 | 7 | 1,672 |
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2020
In 2020, 211 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits. A total of 60 state senators were term-limited in 2020. A total of 151 state representatives were termed out in 2020.
Incumbents
The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2020 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.
| 2020 term-limited incumbents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
| Democratic | 21 | 61 | 82 |
| Republican | 33 | 89 | 122 |
| Independent/Nonpartisan | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Total | 60 | 151 | 211 |
2019
In 2019, 47 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits. Louisiana was the only state holding elections for a term-limited legislature in 2019.
Incumbents
The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2019 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.
| 2019 term-limited incumbents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
| Democratic | 4 | 13 | 17 |
| Republican | 12 | 17 | 29 |
| Independent | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 16 | 31 | 47 |
2018
In 2018, 271 state legislators were termed out in state senates and state houses combined. A total of 96 state senators were term-limited in 2018. A total of 175 state representatives were termed out in 2018.
As a result of term limits in the 2018 state legislative elections, more Republican legislators were ineligible to run than Democratic legislators.
Incumbents
The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.
| 2018 term-limited incumbents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
| Democratic | 28 | 58 | 86 |
| Republican | 62 | 115 | 177 |
| Minor Party/ Nonpartisan |
6[9] | 2 | 8 |
| Total | 96 | 175 | 271 |
Chambers
The following table detailed the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits in 2018.
| 2018 chambers with the most losses | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Senates with most losses | Houses with most losses | Total |
| Democratic | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Republican | 8 | 8 | 16 |
| Equal D/R losses (or nonpartisan chamber) | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Total | 14 | 13 | 27 |
Post-election results
Thirty-five of the 271 term-limited seats (12.9%) changed partisan control in the 2018 elections. Democrats had a net gain of 15 seats and Republicans had a net loss of 13 seats. Ten seats switched from Democrat to Republican, 23 seats flipped from Republican to Democrat, and two seats changed from independent to Democrat.[10]
Nebraska senators are officially nonpartisan. Five Nebraska senators term-limited in 2018 were affiliated with the Republican Party, while the other was affiliated with the Democratic Party. The Nebraska senators were counted as major party incumbents in the post-election results.
| 2018 post-election results | ||
|---|---|---|
| Party | Pre-election | Post-election |
| Democratic | 87 | 102 |
| Republican | 182 | 169 |
| Minor Party/Nonpartisan | 2[11] | 0 |
| Post-election partisan change of term-limited seats | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Party | Office | District | 2018 election winner | Party |
| Joseph Schiavoni | Democratic | Ohio State Senate | District 33 | Michael Rulli | Republican |
| Randy Bass | Democratic | Oklahoma State Senate | District 32 | John Montgomery | Republican |
| Billie Sutton | Democratic | South Dakota State Senate | District 21 | Rocky Blare | Republican |
| Anthony Cannella | Republican | California State Senate | District 12 | Anna Caballero | Democratic |
| Brian Langley | Republican | Maine State Senate | District 7 | Louis Luchini | Democratic |
| Michael Thibodeau | Republican | Maine State Senate | District 11 | Erin Herbig | Democratic |
| Dave Hildenbrand | Republican | Michigan State Senate | District 29 | Winnie Brinks | Democratic |
| James Marleau | Republican | Michigan State Senate | District 12 | Rosemary Bayer | Democratic |
| Patrick Colbeck | Republican | Michigan State Senate | District 7 | Dayna Polehanki | Democratic |
| Edward Buttrey | Republican | Montana State Senate | District 11 | Tom Jacobson | Democratic |
| Bob Krist | Republican | Nebraska State Senate | District 10 | Wendy DeBoer | Democratic |
| Kevin Bacon | Republican | Ohio State Senate | District 3 | Tina Maharath | Democratic |
| J.D. Mesnard | Republican | Arizona House of Representatives | District 17 | Jennifer Pawlik | Democratic |
| Wayne Parry | Republican | Maine House of Representatives | District 10 | Henry Ingwersen | Democratic |
| Ralph Chapman | Independent | Maine House of Representatives | District 133 | Sarah Pebworth | Democratic |
| Heather Sirocki | Republican | Maine House of Representatives | District 28 | Christopher Caiazzo | Democratic |
| Denise Harlow | Independent | Maine House of Representatives | District 36 | Michael Brennan | Democratic |
| Deborah Sanderson | Republican | Maine House of Representatives | District 88 | Chloe Maxmin | Democratic |
| James Gillway | Republican | Maine House of Representatives | District 98 | Scott Cuddy | Democratic |
| Michael McCready | Republican | Michigan House of Representatives | District 40 | Mari Manoogian | Democratic |
| Martin Howrylak | Republican | Michigan House of Representatives | District 41 | Padma Kuppa | Democratic |
| Gary Cross | Republican | Missouri House of Representatives | District 35 | Keri Ingle | Democratic |
| Anne Gonzales | Republican | Ohio House of Representatives | District 19 | Mary Lightbody | Democratic |
| Mike Duffey | Republican | Ohio House of Representatives | District 21 | Beth Liston | Democratic |
| Kristina Daley Roegner | Republican | Ohio House of Representatives | District 37 | Casey Weinstein | Democratic |
| Marlene Anielski | Republican | Ohio House of Representatives | District 6 | Phil Robinson | Democratic |
| Weldon Watson | Republican | Oklahoma House of Representatives | District 79 | Melissa Provenzano | Democratic |
| Randy McDaniel | Republican | Oklahoma House of Representatives | District 83 | Chelsey Branham | Democratic |
| Scott Dianda | Democratic | Michigan House of Representatives | District 110 | Gregory Markkanen | Republican |
| Pat Conway | Democratic | Missouri House of Representatives | District 10 | Bill Falkner | Republican |
| Ben Harris | Democratic | Missouri House of Representatives | District 118 | Mike McGirl | Republican |
| Ed Cannaday | Democratic | Oklahoma House of Representatives | District 15 | Randy Randleman | Republican |
| Brian Renegar | Democratic | Oklahoma House of Representatives | District 17 | Jim Grego | Republican |
| Spencer Hawley | Democratic | South Dakota House of Representatives | District 7 | Doug Post | Republican |
| Chuck Hoskin | Democratic | Oklahoma House of Representatives | District 6 | Rusty Cornwell | Republican |
2017
No states with term limits held elections in 2017.
2016
In 2016, 253 state legislators were termed out in state senates and state houses combined. A total of 67 state senators were termed out in 2016. This represented 20.2 percent of the 331 total state senate seats up for election in the 13 term-limited state senates with elections in November 2016. A total of 186 state representatives were termed out. This represented 14.8 percent of the 1,261 total seats up for election in the 13 term-limited state houses with elections in November 2016.
Incumbents
The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2016 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.
| 2016 term-limited incumbents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
| Democratic | 29 | 84 | 113 |
| Republican | 26 | 102 | 128 |
| Nonpartisan | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| Total | 67 | 186 | 253 |
Chambers
The following table detailed the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits in 2016.
| 2016 chambers with the most losses | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Senates with most losses | Houses with most losses | Total |
| Democratic | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Republican | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| Equal D/R losses (or nonpartisan chamber) | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Total | 13 | 13 | 26 |
2015
In 2015, 21 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits. Louisiana was the only state holding elections for a term-limited legislature in 2015.
Incumbents
The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2015 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.
| 2015 term-limited incumbents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
| Democratic | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| Republican | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| Total | 7 | 14 | 21 |
2014
In 2014, a total of 223 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits. This was 14 percent of the 1,592 state legislative seats up for election in the 14 term-limited states with 2014 elections, and 3.7 percent of the 6,047 state legislative seats that were up for election altogether in 2014, including the non-term-limited states.
Incumbents
The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2014 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.
| 2014 term-limited incumbents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
| Democratic | 22 | 73 | 95 |
| Republican | 24 | 87 | 111 |
| Nonpartisan | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| Total | 63 | 160 | 223 |
Chambers
The following table detailed the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits in 2014.
| 2014 chambers with the most losses | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Senates with most losses | Houses with most losses | Total |
| Democratic | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Republican | 5 | 9 | 14 |
| Equal D/R losses (or nonpartisan chamber) | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 13 | 13 | 26 |
2013
No states with term limits held elections in 2013.
2012
In 2012, 255 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits. This was 14.3 percent of the 1,786 state legislative seats up for election in the 14 term-limited states with 2012 elections, and about 4 percent of the 6,015 state legislative seats that were up for election altogether in 2012, including the non-term-limited states.
In 2012, the last election cycle in which the same seats were up for election as 2016, Republicans had a marginal disadvantage in terms of the number incumbents lost to term limits as well as the number of chambers in which each party saw more members lost to term limits. However, Democrats lost one more state representative than Republicans did during this cycle.
Incumbents
The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2012 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.
| 2012 term-limited incumbents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
| Democratic | 35 | 87 | 122 |
| Republican | 40 | 85 | 125 |
| Nonpartisan | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Total | 83 | 172 | 255 |
Chambers
The following table detailed the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits in 2012.
| 2012 chambers with the most losses | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Senates with most losses | Houses with most losses | Total |
| Democratic | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Republican | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Equal D/R losses (or nonpartisan chamber) | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Total | 13 | 13 | 26 |
2011
In 2011, 16 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits. Louisiana was the only state with term limits that held an election in 2011. The 16 state legislators termed-out in 2011 made up 10.4 percent of the total legislative seats up for election in Louisiana.
There were six state senators termed-out in 2011, making up 15.4 percent of the 39 state senate seats up for election in 2011. There were ten state representatives termed-out in 2011, making up 9.5 percent of the 105 state representative seats up for election in 2011.
Incumbents
The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2011 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.
| 2011 term-limited incumbents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
| Democratic | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Republican | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Minor Party/ Nonpartisan |
0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 6 | 10 | 16 |
2010
In 2010, 375 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits. This was 23 percent of the 1,600 state legislative seats up for election in the 14 term-limited states with 2010 elections.
The Republican Party had more members impacted by term limits in the 2010 state legislative elections than the Democratic Party, both in terms of how many individual incumbent legislators the Republican Party lost (190, versus 182 for the Democratic Party) and in terms of how many state legislative chambers lost more Republicans (13, versus 10 for the Democratic Party).
Incumbents
The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2010 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.
| 2010 term-limited incumbents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
| Democratic | 54 | 128 | 182 |
| Republican | 66 | 124 | 190 |
| Nonpartisan | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Total | 121 | 254 | 375 |
Chambers
The following table detailed the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits in 2010.
| 2010 chambers with the most losses | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Senates with most losses | Houses with most losses | Total |
| Democratic | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Republican | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Equal D/R losses | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Total | 13 | 13 | 26 |
See also
- State legislatures with term limits
- State legislative elections, 2020
- Impact of term limits on state senate elections in 2020
- Impact of term limits on state representative elections in 2020
- Term limits on the ballot
- Term limits in the United States
Footnotes
- ↑ The numbers reflected here are subject to change by the time of the general election. Additionally, Ballotpedia is currently conducting a decade-wide audit of all state legislative elections in order to standardized data from previous years.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 The Arkansas House, Arkansas Senate, and California Assembly were up for election in 2020 and have term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2020. In the three chambers, a total of 197 seats were up for election in 2020.
- ↑ Some of the 211 term-limited state legislators in 2020 may have resigned before their term ends. These legislators were still counted in the total number of term-limited legislators in 2020.
- ↑ Louisiana holds state legislative elections every four years in odd-numbered years.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 The Arkansas Senate was up for election in 2020 and has term limits, but no senators were impacted by term limits in 2020.
- ↑ The Nebraska Senate is officially nonpartisan, but is held by the Republican Party. One Republican, four Democrats, and one independent were term-limited in 2020. For more information on how Ballotpedia determined the partisan affiliation for Nebraska senators, please click here.
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 The Arkansas House of Representatives and California State Assembly were both up for election in 2020 and have term limits, but no representatives were impacted by term limits in 2020.
- ↑ Nebraska senators are officially nonpartisan. Four Nebraska senators term-limited in 2020 were affliated with the Democratic Party, one was affliated with the Republican Party, and one was affiliated with neither party.
- ↑ Nebraska senators are officially nonpartisan. Five Nebraska senators term-limited in 2018 were affiliated with the Republican Party, while the other was affiliated with the Democratic Party.
- ↑ Google Spreadsheet, "Post-election term limits results, 2018," accessed April 25, 2019
- ↑ Nebraska senators are officially nonpartisan. Five Nebraska senators term-limited in 2018 were affiliated with the Republican Party, while the other was affiliated with the Democratic Party. The Nebraska senators were counted as major party incumbents in the post-election results.
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